U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Closed Thread Start New Thread
 
Old 06-03-2017, 06:42 PM
 
9,859 posts, read 10,110,348 times
Reputation: 5275

Advertisements

I think we should kick off a thread on the 2018 House elections. The Democratic party has almost no chance of retaking the Senate in 2018 simply because most of the seats up for election are already occupied by Democrats.

The House is another story as all 435 seats are up for election. Traditionally there is somewhat of a backlash against the party that won the Presidency. The Democrats are obviously hoping for a massive anti-Trump backlash.

The following Democrat congressman are occupying seats in districts where Donald Trump won in 2016. The Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party is known to have a very fiscally conservative Democratic party, so Donald Trump won the largest majority in three districts there.
  1. MN-07 Peterson, Collin 30.8%
  2. MN-08 Nolan, Rick 15.6%
  3. MN-01 Walz, Tim 14.9%
  4. PA-17 Cartwright, Matt 10.1%
  5. WI-03 Kind, Ron 4.5%
  6. IA-02 Loebsack, David 4.1%
  7. NY-18 Maloney, Sean 1.9%
  8. NH-01 Shea-Porter, Carol 1.6%
  9. NJ-05 Gottheimer, Josh 1.1%
  10. AZ-01 O'Halleran, Tom 1.1%
  11. NV-03 Rosen, Jacky 1.0%
  12. IL-17 Bustos, Cheri 0.7%

There are nearly twice as many Republican controlled congressional districts where Hillary Clinton won. It seems almost impossible that a district that Hillary won by nearly 20% could be controlled by a Republican congresswoman, but much of politics is local and personal. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen was the first Latina elected to congress nearly 30 years ago. Her child was the first child of a congressman to undergo transgender surgery, and she has evolved into a big supporter of LBGT rights. But she is retiring this year, and a Democrat is expected to fill her seat.
  1. FL-27 Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana 19.7%
  2. FL-26 Curbelo, Carlos 16.1%
  3. CA-21 Valadao, David 15.5%
  4. VA-10 Comstock, Barbara 10.0%
  5. MN-03 Paulsen, Erik 9.4%
  6. CO-06 Coffman, Mike 8.9%
  7. CA-39 Royce, Ed 8.6%
  8. CA-49 Issa, Darrell 7.5%
  9. IL-06 Roskam, Peter 7.0%
  10. CA-25 Knight, Steve 6.7%
  11. CA-45 Walters, Mimi 5.4%
  12. AZ-02 McSally, Martha 4.9%
  13. NY-24 Katko, John 3.6%
  14. TX-23 Hurd, Will 3.4%
  15. CA-10 Denham, Jeff 3.0%
  16. WA-08 Reichert, David 3.0%
  17. PA-07 Meehan, Pat 2.3%
  18. TX-32 Sessions, Pete 1.9%
  19. CA-48 Rohrabacher, Dana 1.7%
  20. TX-07 Culberson, John 1.4%
  21. KS-03 Yoder, Kevin 1.2%
  22. NJ-07 Lance, Leonard 1.1%
  23. PA-06 Costello, Ryan 0.6%

What are people's thoughts about the possibility that Democrats will get 24 districts to switch from Republican to Democrat so that they control the House in 2018?

 
Old 06-03-2017, 06:56 PM
 
12,639 posts, read 7,313,154 times
Reputation: 7449
It isn't happening. There is no "anti-Trump backlash." It's the same old leftists in the media pushing fake news.
 
Old 06-03-2017, 07:41 PM
 
9,859 posts, read 10,110,348 times
Reputation: 5275
Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveToRow View Post
It isn't happening. There is no "anti-Trump backlash."
You might not be wrong.

After all 20 congressional districts that have Republican congressman today voted for Obama over Romney in 2012. Just because there are 23 districts that have Republican congressman that voted for Clinton over Trump in 2015 may not be particularly noteworthy.

In fact only 3 districts currently controlled by Democratic congressmen voted for Romney over Obama in 2012. In 2016 there were 12. That may indicate that the Republicans could gain seats.

Is there an "anti-Trump backlash" or is it simply people who were never going to vote Republican simply being noisier than they were under GW Bush?

The Democrats controlled the House for 20 straight elections, ie. four decades from 1954 to 1994.

The Republicans have maintained control since the historic shift in 1994 with the exception of the 2006 and 2008 elections where the Democrats briefly took back majority position.
 
Old 06-03-2017, 07:42 PM
 
3,661 posts, read 2,331,257 times
Reputation: 1964
I think that so many conservatives are so certain of maintaining the house that you will see some party purging by the electorate. If I was still in his district back in CA, Issa would definitely be out. I know of so many crony acts by him that have hurt small businesses.
 
Old 06-04-2017, 05:07 AM
 
36,850 posts, read 16,083,784 times
Reputation: 8368
Way too early to start talking about it!
 
Old 06-04-2017, 05:21 AM
 
9,859 posts, read 10,110,348 times
Reputation: 5275
Quote:
Originally Posted by armourereric View Post
If I was still in his district back in CA, Issa would definitely be out. I know of so many crony acts by him that have hurt small businesses.
Issa is, by a long shot, the wealthiest currently serving Congressman or Senator. His net worth is over $1/4 billion.
 
Old 06-04-2017, 06:53 AM
 
18,862 posts, read 7,332,083 times
Reputation: 8069
Most analysts report, every election, starts with around 95% of House seats safe. Most are not close contests.

That isn't going to change.

It will get worse for Dems simply due to census in a few years, and every ten thereafter due to population shifts.

There is no rainbow on the horizon for Democrats. That would take returning to be the party of Truman, a/k/a Mainstream American values. Not fringe .00001% groups, while ignoring the masses.

Last edited by BobNJ1960; 06-04-2017 at 07:27 AM..
 
Old 06-04-2017, 08:22 AM
 
9,859 posts, read 10,110,348 times
Reputation: 5275
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Most analysts report, every election, starts with around 95% of House seats safe. Most are not close contests.
I would agree with that statement. Democrats are hoping to change 24 seats or 5.52% of the total. That is far less than the most dramatic change in recent history.

In 1994 when Republicans took control of the House in backlash to Clinton's first two year
Every Republican incumbent standing won re-election.
Sixteen incumbent Democrats who had been in office less than 2 years were defeated
Twenty eight incumbent Democrats who had been in office more than 2 years were defeated
But still 204 seats were held by Democrats.
For the first time since 1862 a sitting Speaker of the House was defeated in a re-election bid. (Speaker Tom Foley WA-5)
Foley had represented the Spokane area for thirty years.
 
Old 06-04-2017, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,561 posts, read 744,703 times
Reputation: 1668
At this point, I think a small net gain for Democrats is realistic in 2018, but actually flipping the House will be very difficult. Most seats are not very competitive and already represented by the party who has more local support, and fewer voters are willing to cross over than in the past. The GA-06 special election in a few weeks will be a test if Democrats do have much potential of taking over traditionally Republican seats where support for Trump was modest in 2016.

Further out, I'm not so sure that the 2020 census will have a negative impact on Democratic representation in the House. Many red states have blue sections that are growing quickly, and a lot of rural areas across the nation that are overwhelmingly Republican are losing population. There are a lot of different variables and how the congressional maps are drawn will depend heavily on the outcome of state level elections and possibly court decisions over the next few years.
 
Old 06-04-2017, 01:07 PM
 
12,639 posts, read 7,313,154 times
Reputation: 7449
Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
At this point, I think a small net gain for Democrats is realistic in 2018, but actually flipping the House will be very difficult. Most seats are not very competitive and already represented by the party who has more local support, and fewer voters are willing to cross over than in the past. The GA-06 special election in a few weeks will be a test if Democrats do have much potential of taking over traditionally Republican seats where support for Trump was modest in 2016.

Further out, I'm not so sure that the 2020 census will have a negative impact on Democratic representation in the House. Many red states have blue sections that are growing quickly, and a lot of rural areas across the nation that are overwhelmingly Republican are losing population. There are a lot of different variables and how the congressional maps are drawn will depend heavily on the outcome of state level elections and possibly court decisions over the next few years.
The Georgia special election is meaningless. Even if Ossoff ekes out a win, he will lose the seat in the regular election because the Democrats won't have $12M to throw at the race.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Closed Thread

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top