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Old 06-21-2017, 11:51 AM
 
77,531 posts, read 33,038,709 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimChi2PG View Post
We've reached a point where any election held, that does not have paper forms backing the results, is suspect. We can no longer dismiss election hacking as the reason why the accuracy of the polls has recently dropped.

Certainly there could be other reasons but with the all of our intelligence departments certain election hacking is occurring, eliminating the hacking should be priority #1. That is, if we believe in American Democracy.
There has been no hacking.
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Old 06-21-2017, 03:39 PM
 
Location: Ohio
13,964 posts, read 10,726,259 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimChi2PG View Post
We've reached a point where any election held, that does not have paper forms backing the results, is suspect. We can no longer dismiss election hacking as the reason why the accuracy of the polls has recently dropped.

Certainly there could be other reasons but with the all of our intelligence departments certain election hacking is occurring, eliminating the hacking should be priority #1. That is, if we believe in American Democracy.
#1, there hasn't been the slightest shred of evidence shown, that attempted election hacking has actually resulted in fraudulent results.


#2, I completely agree with you about the paper forms backing up each ballot cast. Elections are far too important to let each state run their own election in different ways ( some states use paper ballots, some use computers, etc.) We need federal laws making the election process uniform across every state. No computers, papers ballots only. ( though I do not believe that elections should centralized and run by the FedGov, as that would actually make it easier to hack and manipulate )
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Old 06-21-2017, 08:17 PM
 
77,531 posts, read 33,038,709 times
Reputation: 15431
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper 88 View Post
#1, there hasn't been the slightest shred of evidence shown, that attempted election hacking has actually resulted in fraudulent results.


#2, I completely agree with you about the paper forms backing up each ballot cast. Elections are far too important to let each state run their own election in different ways ( some states use paper ballots, some use computers, etc.) We need federal laws making the election process uniform across every state. No computers, papers ballots only. ( though I do not believe that elections should centralized and run by the FedGov, as that would actually make it easier to hack and manipulate )
Our electronic voting machines have a paper trail also.
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Old 06-21-2017, 09:40 PM
 
1,711 posts, read 1,603,227 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
Probably the biggest alt-right lie from the past year is "the polls were wrong". It reveals the lack of critical thinking with the Trump cult.

The polls were right. The most respected polls on Nov 8. gave Trump a 20-30% chance to win, and had the margin of victory at around 2-4%. It was a tossup. Hillary had 3 million more votes, which roughly corresponds with the polled margin. While the Trump victory was a surprise for both sides, it hardly challenged the pollster predictions.

Also, I am AMAZED that people reveal their lack of education by saying "the polls were wrong"; not understanding that polls are a measure of relative odds. If you win the lotto, and had a one in billion chance of winning, it doesn't mean the odds were "wrong". It means you don't understand the first thing about statistics. If Trump had a .0001% chance of winning, and he won, it STILL doesn't mean the polls are wrong, because it's relative odds, nothing more, nothing less.

Also, the results of one poll have NOTHING to do with the results of another poll. So the idea that a poll today on, say Trump's lack of popularity has no relationship to a poll about the Presidential election. It's just another indication that Trump voters (not all, but many) are less than educated.
You show your own ignorance. Polls cannot measure odds or probabilities. They cannot because they are not random samples of who WILL vote. So the math goes out the window.

Summarizing the latest non-republican polls in some key states that Democrats thought they should or might win:

3 Iowa polls - all way outside MOE
4 Michigan polls - all well outside the MOE
3 North Carolina polls - all outside MOE
3 Wisconsin polls - all outside MOE
3 Ohio polls - all at MOE
4 Pennsylvania polls - near MOE
5 Florida polls - most near MOE, all 5 failed to pick Trump

That's 25 polls. Most were outside the MOE, all failed to pick Trump to win.

Since Trump won all those states, a mathematically sound poll (which is impossible) would have a better than 50% chance of favoring Trump and being within the MOE. Yet all 25 polls failed to do that.

The likelihood that these polls were "right" (mathematically sound) is less than the odds of you flipping 25 heads in a row.
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Old 06-26-2017, 05:04 PM
 
Location: Washington State
18,089 posts, read 9,369,175 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
Stewart was a Trump campaign manager and he was running on a tough immigration policy. The pollsters had his opponent (Ed Gillespie) ahead by as much as 27%. The Republican opponent (Gillespie) won by 1% (44 percent to 43 percent). That's a pretty big difference being off that much. Can't claim Democrat bias seeing as how both candidates were Republican.

You can read the guesses as to why they were off, again.

What do you think will happen in 2018 with the polling overall? Will they get their act together before the midterms or is political polling one of those dying occupations?
The Fake Poll industry is part of the Media propaganda machine to elect Democrats. They will again predict Dim victories up until the election night proves them very wrong again.
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Old 06-26-2017, 06:04 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,497 posts, read 712,579 times
Reputation: 1570
While the accuracy of polls is suspect, generally they have a percentage of undecided voters. It's possible that a large share of undecided voters moved overwhelmingly in one direction (e.g. Trump in 2016) at the last minute, after the polls were conducted. Maybe the polls are trying to influence the outcome a certain way, but they are clearly not having much success. If polls show the Democrat winning 47 to 44, but the Republican ends up winning 51 to 48, the poll isn't necessarily wrong - the undecided voters just strongly preferred the Republican.

Polls aren't going to disappear either since there is plenty of demand for coverage of the election horse races and setting expectations for the outcomes. If there indeed is a systemic bias against Republican or conservative candidates in the polls, then there is a great opportunity to develop a new poll that allocates non-respondents to the most right-wing option. Not a bad strategy if the goal is to be correct, perhaps.
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