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Old 06-26-2017, 03:24 PM
 
Location: Downtown Phoenix, AZ
18,761 posts, read 6,770,169 times
Reputation: 5767

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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveToRow View Post
I'll never understand why people like you vote against their best interests.
Because I don't share anything in common with the Republican Party. I know who I am and don't delude myself that I will ever be rich. I don't support the Religious Right (or any religion for that matter, was born in. A Catholic household, but been an athiest going on two decades now). I am completely color blind, and don't support discrimination or ethnocentrism. My fiance is mestizo, and I could care less. I am pro-choice, and find quite a few of the pro-lifers crowd to be vile people. I am in support of Bernie Sanders' proposals for Universal Health Care as well as tuition-free college for those academically qualified. I am against gun ownership, and will never understand the NRA. Guns make it WAY too easy to kill people. And I am in support of public housing and a higher minimum wage tied to inflation.

The Republicans don't share ANY of those values.

And btw, unlike some people, I don't forget where I came from and how hard I struggled until about 3 years ago, and think of the people who have to go through what I went through in my 20's.
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Old 06-26-2017, 03:45 PM
 
6,964 posts, read 2,485,899 times
Reputation: 3526
Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveToRow View Post
Just as many old liberals are croaking as old conservatives. Plus young liberals turn into conservatives once they become self sufficient.

Demographics is not on the left's side, especially now that Trump has ruined their scheme to import illegals to swing elections.
Total bull####.

1. The GOP is overly dependent on older voters. Old liberals die too, but they are being replaced by younger minority or white college grad voters; the R's are slowly losing their base of angry seniors with fewer replacement voters. There's a limit to how much you can depend on turnout when your base is fading too. A lot has been made of the decline in the voting power of the white non-college voter, but intertwined with that group are white evangelicals. Studies of the 2016 election indicated that 85% of eligible white evangelicals voted in 2016, which means that as far as voting power is concerned, their influence has about maxed out.

2. The adage that young liberals turn into old conservatives is bull#### too. Most people stick with the political philosophy that they developed in their formative years.

3. The Dems don't have to import illegal voters. The voters they'll need in the future are already here and were born here. If you want to look at the face of the future of America look at the kids getting on the school bus in states like Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and throughout the country. The demographic cake for the next 30-40 years is already baked, and those segments that are growing are, as of now, not receptive to the GOP. It's extremely doubtful that a Donald Trump Presidency will do anything but strengthen the aversion that those groups currently have to a Trumpist white-Nationalist leaning Republican Party.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-26-2017 at 03:53 PM..
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Old 06-26-2017, 03:58 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,244 posts, read 11,491,119 times
Reputation: 4305
Quote:
Originally Posted by MUTGR View Post
No, it was not a dying industry but Obama set out to kill it and did a very good job. A lot of energy in this country is still produced with coal and that is unlikely to change.
You are arguing that "not dead" means it isnt dying. That is obviously not true

In 1960, there were 600,000 coal jobs, today there are less than 70,000.

4 of the 10 largest coal companies have declared bankruptcy. and they control 40% of the market.


its dying.
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Old 06-26-2017, 04:10 PM
 
6,964 posts, read 2,485,899 times
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If the coal industry was a person it would probably qualify for hospice care.
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Old 06-26-2017, 04:57 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,550 posts, read 732,580 times
Reputation: 1650
There are so many variables around how different identity groups and locations choose to vote, that it is dangerous to project outcomes with absolute certainty beyond the near term and constituencies that truly support one party by landslide margins. I think Wyoming voting Republican and Massachusetts voting Democratic are sure bets. Pennsylvania being a solid red state after giving Trump less than a 1% victory last year is far more dubious.

The 2016 election isn't going to necessarily be copied and pasted every four years for one cycle after another and duplicated on a smaller scale in the midterms. Donald Trump will almost definitely be on the top of the ballot in 2020, but never again after that, and he will have a different opponent who isn't likely to have so much baggage, controversy, and inability to connect with many ordinary folks as Hillary Clinton. He'll also have a record to defend, and it remains to be seen how the American public will regard the state of the nation in 2020 and the policies that are enacted during his term. If the AHCA is implemented and still perceived as it is currently, that won't be a point in his favor.

This doesn't mean Democrats are guaranteed to win in the future just due to demographic trends. People (with plenty of exceptions) tend to get more conservative as they age, and the proportion of elderly Americans is surging and will continue to do so for many years. Many nonwhite voters (with blacks as a conspicuous exception) are pretty conservative in their ideology and absolutely can be won over by the right type of Republican, and there is still room for Republicans to gain more support from "working class whites", some of whom have not voted at all in the past. Neither side should be arrogant or complacent about the future.
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Old 06-26-2017, 05:00 PM
 
12,639 posts, read 7,297,338 times
Reputation: 7449
Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
There are so many variables around how different identity groups and locations choose to vote, that it is dangerous to project outcomes with absolute certainty beyond the near term and constituencies that truly support one party by landslide margins. I think Wyoming voting Republican and Massachusetts voting Democratic are sure bets. Pennsylvania being a solid red state after giving Trump less than a 1% victory last year is far more dubious.

The 2016 election isn't going to necessarily be copied and pasted every four years for one cycle after another and duplicated on a smaller scale in the midterms. Donald Trump will almost definitely be on the top of the ballot in 2020, but never again after that, and he will have a different opponent who isn't likely to have so much baggage, controversy, and inability to connect with many ordinary folks as Hillary Clinton. He'll also have a record to defend, and it remains to be seen how the American public will regard the state of the nation in 2020 and the policies that are enacted during his term. If the AHCA is implemented and still perceived as it is currently, that won't be a point in his favor.

This doesn't mean Democrats are guaranteed to win in the future just due to demographic trends. People (with plenty of exceptions) tend to get more conservative as they age, and the proportion of elderly Americans is surging and will continue to do so for many years. Many nonwhite voters (with blacks as a conspicuous exception) are pretty conservative in their ideology and absolutely can be won over by the right type of Republican, and there is still room for Republicans to gain more support from "working class whites", not all of whom have voted at all in the past. Neither side should be arrogant or complacent about the future.
Agree with you 100%. Bureaucat is the one who thinks demographics guarantees Democrat victories. He was wrong in 2016 and he'll be wrong much more than he's right in the future.
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Old 06-26-2017, 05:26 PM
 
6,964 posts, read 2,485,899 times
Reputation: 3526
Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveToRow View Post
Agree with you 100%. Bureaucat is the one who thinks demographics guarantees Democrat victories. He was wrong in 2016 and he'll be wrong much more than he's right in the future.
I don't think that demographics guarantees Democratic victories. I've never said that. What I've said is that the GOP cannot continue to depend on the same groups of voters for victory in the future that they've depended upon in the past because those groups are losing voting share with every election. They're pretty close to maxing out the levels of support that they can get from white non-college and white evangelicals.

As those groups decline the GOP will have to improve their standing with white college grads and/or minority voters because that's where the growth is. Can they possibly do that? Sure, but especially under Trump they've been more inclined to preach to their hard core base than they have been to try to expand their support to other groups. My guess is that the more the GOP campaigns like Trump did in 2016, trying to boost turnout for that blue collar/evangelical base, the less likely it is that they can make big inroads in white college voters, but especially with minority voters.

The current strategy has an expiration date. It can only work for the short term. For the long term, it has the potential to be a disaster for the GOP. That's what I've been saying, and I still believe that that is true. The GOP has to broaden it's support to continue to thrive long-term in an America that will become more diverse with each election.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-26-2017 at 05:38 PM..
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Old 06-26-2017, 05:30 PM
 
5,721 posts, read 5,453,721 times
Reputation: 3605
1. Lay off the culture war

And

2. Stop screeching "Russia!!!!!!" every 30 seconds.

Do these two simple things and the House is in play next year.

Spoiler alert: the House will not be in play next year.
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Old 06-26-2017, 06:00 PM
 
44,474 posts, read 17,754,807 times
Reputation: 18698
I predicted that Trump would be elected President in 2015. Lots of you laughed at that.

And now I predict this map will be more red than this on Nov 3, 2020.



Why? Democrat party has no leadership and it's tearing itself apart. Bill Clinton's wife was their best shot, now they've got nothing.
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Old 06-26-2017, 06:02 PM
 
18,738 posts, read 7,273,050 times
Reputation: 8009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Then stop this crap about the Democrats having to moderate. The Republicans aren't moderating. .
1,000 plus more seats means we need not moderate. We are winning the vast majority of elections. NBA coaches do not call timeout when on a 15-0 run in their favor.
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