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Old 07-12-2017, 07:33 PM
 
11,870 posts, read 5,042,272 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Pete Wilson won the battle but lost the war in California by permanently alienating Hispanic voters and basically destroying the GOP as a statewide force.. The question for the future is will Donald Trump do nationally what Pete did in California.
I don't think that's the case because most of this country is not an illegal alien sanctuary with local governments catering to illegals.
The issue in CA is that people have become so brainwashed starting in kindergarten, through high school and college, they honestly don't feel the need to look at issues, or who the individuals are that are running for office. They just vote for the "D" on the ballet without any other concern or doing any research. They follow themselves much like lemmings going over a cliff and then many times have regrets later. A good example today is the large new tax in vehicle registration which many lower income people can't afford, including many Hispanics of modest means. There's a recall effort well under way to recall the ultra liberal who either proposed it or was significant in passing this bill. There's also an attempt to create a state wide ballot to make that new law null and void.
Even the good people of CA have their limits. Unfortunately, they don't necessarily vote with an open mind and think about the consequences of voting blindly for everyone that has that "D" next to their name.

Last edited by marino760; 07-12-2017 at 07:46 PM..
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Old 07-12-2017, 07:48 PM
 
Location: On a Long Island in NY
7,677 posts, read 8,463,673 times
Reputation: 7029
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Pete Wilson won the battle but lost the war in California by permanently alienating Hispanic voters and basically destroying the GOP as a statewide force.. The question for the future is will Donald Trump do nationally what Pete did in California.
Agreed, CAGOP will be electorally irrelevant until they stop catering to the kind of people who scapegoat illegal immigrants as the cause of each and every problem. For some reason, CAGOP thinks that can win by focusing on Trumpism and White identity politics in a state where Whites are basically evaporating. It's completely bizarro. Nobody says that can't be fiscally conservative, they just can't sound like White supremacists foaming from the mouth as they rant and rave about illegals taking over. No Republican will ever win a statewide election in California again unless they - at the very least - support a pathway to legal status for illegal immigrants. That's reality. Accept it, or accept defeat.

The national GOP is not that far behind, maybe another 10-15 years. Once they lose Texas they are done.
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Old 07-13-2017, 03:33 PM
 
6,964 posts, read 2,484,766 times
Reputation: 3525
Quote:
Originally Posted by WIHS2006 View Post
Agreed, CAGOP will be electorally irrelevant until they stop catering to the kind of people who scapegoat illegal immigrants as the cause of each and every problem. For some reason, CAGOP thinks that can win by focusing on Trumpism and White identity politics in a state where Whites are basically evaporating. It's completely bizarro. Nobody says that can't be fiscally conservative, they just can't sound like White supremacists foaming from the mouth as they rant and rave about illegals taking over. No Republican will ever win a statewide election in California again unless they - at the very least - support a pathway to legal status for illegal immigrants. That's reality. Accept it, or accept defeat.

The national GOP is not that far behind, maybe another 10-15 years. Once they lose Texas they are done.
The national GOP as it is currently comprised has a shelf life of roughly 10-15 years, because they overly depend on the very same white non-college and white evangelicals who are shrinking with each election cycle. There was en extensive computer simulation conducted in 2016 for Presidential Electuons from 2016-2032 by Brookings/American Enierprise Institure that tested six different scenarios.

Scenario A: Replay of the 2012 election; same turnout and percentages by demographic groups as 2012, only adjusted for predicted demographic change.

Scenario B: Replay of 2008 election

Scenario C: Replay of the 2004 election

Scenario D: Maximum Minority Turnout; Hispanic/Asian minority group turnout equals white/black turnout.

Scenario E: 15% net shift (from 2012) of Hispanic and Asian vote to GOP (R increases by 7.5% and D decreases by 7.5%)

Scenario F: 10% net shift (from 2012) of white vote to the GOP, which would reach Reagan 1984 levels.

By 2028, none of the 6 options worked for the GOP, either in popular vote or in the electoral college. There is no corresponding study by R leaning demographers, presumably because they cannot create a rosy mathematical scenario where the current coalition continues to win.

The GOP may continue to win the Presidency after 2028, but not by depending of the current coalition. They'll have to broaden the base rather than narrow focus on the base as Trump did in 2016, because the numbers just won't be there.

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-...16-report2.pdf

Last edited by Bureaucat; 07-13-2017 at 03:45 PM..
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Old 07-13-2017, 04:01 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,241 posts, read 11,488,182 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliRestoration View Post
Yes, Democrats are directionless.

1,000+ lost legislative seats in the past 6 years.

The most important thing on the agenda is fixing or ridding the nation of ObozoCare, you know, the imploding catastrophe that has robbed millions of coverage due to increasing premium cost, and was put into law with 100% Democrat support and 0% Republican support. GOP fixing DNC created problems is the most important thing on the agenda, in that you are correct.
Both parties are fractured.

Your party has the tea party caucus and Freedom Caucus, more specifically You have people who are labeled libertarians and people who are called the far right.

Together they have 78 seats in the house, and 4 in the senate, that is just as many seats as the progressive caucus on the Democratic side.
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Old 07-13-2017, 05:40 PM
 
5,098 posts, read 2,732,914 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
Both parties are fractured.

Your party has the tea party caucus and Freedom Caucus, more specifically You have people who are labeled libertarians and people who are called the far right.

Together they have 78 seats in the house, and 4 in the senate, that is just as many seats as the progressive caucus on the Democratic side.
Both parties do have divisions, but the GOP is hardly "fractured". Gorsuch got through with unanimous support, so did most of Trump's cabinet. There are no 'fractures'.

Also, the conservative movement is set to take the MOST amount of young voters into its party since WWII. Generation Z is predicted to be over 30%-40% conservative. You might think "Well, that's not a lot", but it is. Generation X was roughly 20% conservative, and millennials were less than 10% in the U.S. The tide has completely changed, and the Democratic party did it to itself. When the leftist/progressives at WSJ, BuzzFeed, and WaPO started calling PewDiePie a right wing nazi, I knew the Democrats were officially in loony land.

Seriously, attacking a guy who has nearly 60,000,000 subscribers on Youtube, and millions of other fans across various gaming platforms, whose chief demographic is going to be FIRST TIME VOTERS in 2018 and 2020? Talk about political suicide!

It's gotten so bad that liberal Bay Area Billionaires Mark Pincus and Reid Hoffman are already looking to do away with the current Democrat party and start completely over.

Now that's what you call "fractured". The DNC is fractured.
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Old 07-13-2017, 05:45 PM
 
5,098 posts, read 2,732,914 times
Reputation: 4637
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
The national GOP as it is currently comprised has a shelf life of roughly 10-15 years, because they overly depend on the very same white non-college and white evangelicals who are shrinking with each election cycle. There was en extensive computer simulation conducted in 2016 for Presidential Electuons from 2016-2032 by Brookings/American Enierprise Institure that tested six different scenarios.

Scenario A: Replay of the 2012 election; same turnout and percentages by demographic groups as 2012, only adjusted for predicted demographic change.

Scenario B: Replay of 2008 election

Scenario C: Replay of the 2004 election

Scenario D: Maximum Minority Turnout; Hispanic/Asian minority group turnout equals white/black turnout.

Scenario E: 15% net shift (from 2012) of Hispanic and Asian vote to GOP (R increases by 7.5% and D decreases by 7.5%)

Scenario F: 10% net shift (from 2012) of white vote to the GOP, which would reach Reagan 1984 levels.

By 2028, none of the 6 options worked for the GOP, either in popular vote or in the electoral college. There is no corresponding study by R leaning demographers, presumably because they cannot create a rosy mathematical scenario where the current coalition continues to win.

The GOP may continue to win the Presidency after 2028, but not by depending of the current coalition. They'll have to broaden the base rather than narrow focus on the base as Trump did in 2016, because the numbers just won't be there.

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-...16-report2.pdf
Are you kidding?

Here's the trend for ELECTED political office over the past 8 years.



That's represents over 1,000 elected legislative seats lost by the DNC.

Not to mention the "Democrat blue wall" of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were turned solidly RED the last POTUS election, something that hasn't occurred since Reagan.

If anything, the DNC is on the verge of becoming even less important and MORE fractured in politics come 2018 and 2020. Generation Z is projected to be the most conservative generation since WWII, most of whom will be first time voters in the coming elections.
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Old 07-13-2017, 06:02 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,241 posts, read 11,488,182 times
Reputation: 4305
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliRestoration View Post
Both parties do have divisions, but the GOP is hardly "fractured". Gorsuch got through with unanimous support, so did most of Trump's cabinet. There are no 'fractures'.





.
What does the cabinet have to do with whether or not the parties are fractured ? And to be clear, not all members of the GOP voted for Trumps cabinet members, even some moderates fell off when it came to them.

But ideology comes up far more when it comes to legislature, which we have seen the split in time and time again.




Quote:
Also, the conservative movement is set to take the MOST amount of young voters into its party since WWII. Generation Z is predicted to be over 30%-40% conservative. You might think "Well, that's not a lot", but it is. Generation X was roughly 20% conservative, and millennials were less than 10% in the U.S. The tide has completely changed, and the Democratic party did it to itself.
can you provide evidence to support that. Im not asking you to poll every person of every generation, just saying I have never seen those numbers before, can you show where you got them ???


Quote:
When the leftist/progressives at WSJ, BuzzFeed, and WaPO started calling PewDiePie a right wing nazi, I knew the Democrats were officially in loony land.

Seriously, attacking a guy who has nearly 60,000,000 subscribers on Youtube, and millions of other fans across various gaming platforms, whose chief demographic is going to be FIRST TIME VOTERS in 2018 and 2020? Talk about political suicide!
What does that have to do with the Democratic Party ?????? I know you guys want to argue that Democrats own the press, but that isnt true. WSJ is owned by the Murdoch who own FOX and Wash Post is actually owned by a Libertarian.

The fact is that the PewDiePie stuff was taken out of context and actually was over within a week.

Im also not sure why you think those people will become conservatives, because im pretty sure Pewdpie isnt, nor does he support them in anyway.

Quote:
It's gotten so bad that liberal Bay Area Billionaires Mark Pincus and Reid Hoffman are already looking to do away with the current Democrat party and start completely over.

Now that's what you call "fractured". The DNC is fractured
Again, im not sure if how you dont see the flaw here. there are what, 8 minor "conservative parties" started by former Republicans. Yes people split off it happens. encase you forgot, Both Libertarians last year were former Republicans, McMullen(sp) was as well.

Your party is just as fractured if not more.

And based on a quick google search, they are doing the same thing the Tea Party did, which is to create a faction within the party, not start a new one.
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Old 07-13-2017, 06:02 PM
 
6,964 posts, read 2,484,766 times
Reputation: 3525
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliRestoration View Post
Are you kidding?

Here's the trend for ELECTED political office over the past 8 years.



That's represents over 1,000 elected legislative seats lost by the DNC.

Not to mention the "Democrat blue wall" of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were turned solidly RED the last POTUS election, something that hasn't occurred since Reagan.

If anything, the DNC is on the verge of becoming even less important and MORE fractured in politics come 2018 and 2020. Generation Z is projected to be the most conservative generation since WWII, most of whom will be first time voters in the coming elections.
Not kidding in the least. The GOP may win after 2028, but it won't be with the same coalition because they won't exist in the same numbers. More white non-college and white evangelicals are being buried than are turning 18. To continue to win after 2028, the GOP will need to win white college grads by a much greater margin than they are currently or start winning a larger share of minority votes because those are the groups that are growing. As far as Gen Z is concerned, (1.) I think it's too early to make a definitive call on the generation's politics because the bulk of them are just kids and haven't yet entered those early adult "formative years" when most people's political ideology is set and (2.) each American generation is more diverse than the one preceding it.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 07-13-2017 at 06:32 PM..
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Old 07-17-2017, 09:51 AM
 
5,098 posts, read 2,732,914 times
Reputation: 4637
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post

Again, im not sure if how you dont see the flaw here. there are what, 8 minor "conservative parties" started by former Republicans. Yes people split off it happens. encase you forgot, Both Libertarians last year were former Republicans, McMullen(sp) was as well.

Your party is just as fractured if not more.
Do fractured parties completely reverse the scope of power in American politics in 8 years?



Not to mention the 4-0 in special elections this year lost by the DNC. But the DNC is just great, unified, and awesome according to you. Ooook.
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Old 07-17-2017, 09:55 AM
 
5,098 posts, read 2,732,914 times
Reputation: 4637
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Not kidding in the least. The GOP may win after 2028, but it won't be with the same coalition because they won't exist in the same numbers. More white non-college and white evangelicals are being buried than are turning 18. To continue to win after 2028, the GOP will need to win white college grads by a much greater margin than they are currently or start winning a larger share of minority votes because those are the groups that are growing. As far as Gen Z is concerned, (1.) I think it's too early to make a definitive call on the generation's politics because the bulk of them are just kids and haven't yet entered those early adult "formative years" when most people's political ideology is set and (2.) each American generation is more diverse than the one preceding it.
Sure, I'd agree with that.

But you're saying something completely different than your previous post where you claimed that the GOP, who just took 1,000 elected legislative seats from the DNC over the past 10 years, only had 15 years left of survival.

Not everyone thinks the GOP is "racist and hates immigrants" anymore, because 1) Identity politics has lost its luster over the past 10 years due to Obama playing that card way too often, and 2) It was all lies anyway. People are becoming more educated about the actual history of the DNC, which of course was the party of slavery and the KKK, and 3) The demographics of people who vote GOP are changing. I believe we will see this in 2018, and 2020 with the GOP taking more of the youth vote than in the previous 4-5 POTUS elections, which would be devastating to the DNC which has relied upon the youth vote to win elections in previous years.

I also believe Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have been lost for the foreseeable future unless Trump and the GOP really **** up the economy. The jobs numbers (whoever may have been the catalyst for them) look very good this year and projections show them being good for the future, and voters will remember that in 2018 and 2020.
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