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We are starting to see movement in Tennessee where Bredesen has widened his lead to 6 points now. I'm not putting this in the win column for the democrats yet, but Blackburn is way behind in fundraising & has not lead in a poll. With Blackburn campaigning on being Trump 2.0 & yesterday's disaster in Finland this race may never get started.
Another Florida poll, due to the states huge population & demographic differences between the different regions, I don't think we will see an accurate poll of this state.
Florida Senate - Scott vs. Nelson Gravis Scott 43, Nelson 47 Nelson +4
A first NJ poll, Menendez should be running away but he's not, will the republican win? 99% probably not...
New Jersey Senate - Hugin vs. Menendez Gravis Menendez 43, Hugin 41 Menendez +2
Senate poll out today in West Virginia. Republican poll shows their candidate behind by 10, Manchin also has a huge cash advantage & a majority of TV/Radio time already reserved. In the next month if Manchin releases any of the TV/Radio buys then I will move this into a win for democrats. Down by 10 in your own poll sucks badly, unless Vladimir can engineer a hail mary think Manchin wins this by double digits.
West Virginia Senate - Morrisey vs. Manchin Trafalgar Group (R)* Manchin 50, Morrisey 40 Manchin +10
Update time, pending the results of OH-12 to be finalized (which it looks like the Republicans will hold onto), we have now had the last Special Election that will not be held Concurrently with the General Election in November
One I previously missed is Democratic Congressman Keith Ellison of Minnesota's 5th district announced in June that he will not seek re-election to the House and will instead run for State Attorney General. The district is heavily Democratic and covers all of Minneapolis as well as portions of its close in suburbs.
Republican Congressman Chris Collins of New York's 27th district has announced he is suspending his re-election campaign to Congress following his indictment on insider trading charges. While not officially bowing out yet suspending his campaign basically sets that into motion. Laws in NY basically do not allow a candidate to be removed from the ballot after they are nominated other than death, however they can be switched to another office. Collins will likely run for a minor Judge, town clerk or another minor position elsewhere in the state freeing up the GOP's ability to replace him on the ballot in NY-27. The district is the fairly Republican (and the most Republican district in NY), running from the Buffalo suburbs to the further out Rochester suburbs along with rural areas in between
There are three members of the Senate who have indicated they will not seek re-election. All three are Republican and have announced they will retire.
1. Bob Corker- TN
Trump 61-35 Romney 59-39
2. Jeff Flake AZ
Trump 48-45 Romney 53-44
3. Orin Hatch-UT
Trump 45-27, Romney 73-25
Currently there are 55 members of the House that have indicated they will not seek re-election 37 Republicans, 18 Democrats (this doesn't include members who previously resigned). In addition one Democrat is seeking re-election in the same district as an Incumbent Republican and as a result two Incumbents will run against each other. Five seats are currently vacant in which Special Elections to be held concurrent with Election Day. Three previously held by Republicans all resignations, two previously held by Democrats, one resignation and one death. Two Incumbent Republicans have lost in a Primary and one Incumbent Democrat has as well. This results in 64 Open Seats, 42 currently/were held by Republicans, 22 currently/were held by Democrats
** Denotes any of the PA districts which will be new for 2018. I noted what the old seats were numbered and the estimated 12 & 16 results of the new seats vs old seats where applicable.
Republican held open seats
1. AZ-2 Martha McSally- Running for Senate
Clinton 49.6-44.7, Romney 49.9-48.4
2. CA-39 Ed Royce- Retiring
Clinton 51.5-42.9, Romney 50.8-47.1
3. CA-49 Darrell Issa- Retiring
Clinton 50.7-3.2, Romney 52.4-45.7
4. FL-6 Ron Desantis- Running or Gov
Trump 56.9-39.9, Romney 52.2-46.6
5. FL-15 Dennis Ross- Retiring
Trump 53.1-43.1, Romney 52.2-46.6
6. FL-17 Tom Rooney- Retiring
Trump 62.2-35.0, Romney 57.6-41.3
7. FL-27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen- Retiring
Clinton 58.5-38.9 Obama 53.0-46.3
17. NM-2 Steve Pearce Running for Gov
Trump 50.1-39.9 Romney 51.7-44.9
18. ND-AL Kevin Cramer- Running for Senate
Trump 64.1-27.7 Romney 58.7-38.9
19. NY-27 Chris Collins- Suspended Re-election campaign following indictment
Trump 59.7-35.2, Romney 55.3-42.9
20. OH-16 Jim Renacci- Running for Gov
Trump 56.1-39.5 Romney 53.4-45.2
21. OK-1 Jim Birdenstine- Resigned to become Administrator of NASA- Special Election to be held concurrently
Trump 61.4-32.7, Romney 65.8-34.2
**22. PA-5 Patrick Meehan-Resigned (mostly old PA-7) Special Election will be held Concurrently in old PA-7
Clinton 62.6- 34.4, Obama 64.5- 34.5 (old Clinton 49.3-47.0, Romney 50.4-48.5)
**23. PA-06 Ryan Cosetllo Retiring
Clinton 52.6-43.3, Obama 51.0-47.8
**24. PA-7 Charlie Dent- Resigned (mostly old PA-15) Special Election in old PA-15 to be held concurrent with General
Clinton 48.7-47.6, Obama 52.9-45.9 (old Trump 51.8-44.2 Romney 50.8-47.9)
**25. PA-9 Lou Barletta- Running for Senate (mostly old PA-11)
Trump 61.0-31.0, Romney 57.2-41.2 ( old Trump 60.0-36.2 Romney 53.9-44.5)
**26. PA-13 Bill Schuster- Retiring (mostly old PA-9)
Trump 71.0-25.5, Romney 66.8-31.8 (old Trump 69.7-27.2, Romney 62.8-35.9)
27 SC-1 Mark Sanford- Lost in Primary
Trump 53.5-40.4, Romney 58.3-40.2
14. NV-4 Ruben Kihuen- Retiring
Clinton 49.5-44.6, Obama 54.4-43.7
15. NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter- Retiring
Trump 48.2-46.6 Obama 50.2-48.6
16. NM-1 Michelle Lujan Grisham- Running for Gov
Clinton 51.6-35.1 Obama 55.3-39.6
17. NY-14 Joseph Crowley- Lost in Primary
Clinton 77.7-19.8, Obama 80.7-18.3
18. NY-25 Louise Slaughter- Passed Away- Special Election to be held concurrently
Clinton 55.5-39.1, Obama 58.8-39.4
19 ** PA-04 Bob Brady - Retiring/ Brandon Boyle of the old PA-13 running in new PA-02 (mostly old PA-1) which opens this seat
Clinton 57.9-38.5 , Obama 56.1-42.8
20. **PA-14 Connor Lamb- (mostly old PA-18) running in new PA-17 against Incumbent due to redistricting
Trump 62.9-33.9, Romney 58.3-40.6
21. TX-16 Beto O'Rourke- Running for Senate
Clinton 67.9-27.2 Obama 64.2-34.5
22. TX-29 Gene Green- Retiring
Clinton 71.1-25.4, Obama 65.9-33.0
Update time. Upset in the Primary in MA-07 as Democratic Congressman Mike Capuano lost in a Primary challenge to Ayanna Pressley. The district is heavily Democratic covering about half of Boston and some of its closer in suburbs
There are three members of the Senate who have indicated they will not seek re-election. All three are Republican and have announced they will retire.
1. Bob Corker- TN
Trump 61-35 Romney 59-39
2. Jeff Flake AZ
Trump 48-45 Romney 53-44
3. Orin Hatch-UT
Trump 45-27, Romney 73-25
Currently there are 55 members of the House that have indicated they will not seek re-election 37 Republicans, 18 Democrats (this doesn't include members who previously resigned). In addition one Democrat is seeking re-election in the same district as an Incumbent Republican and as a result two Incumbents will run against each other. Five seats are currently vacant in which Special Elections to be held concurrent with Election Day. Three previously held by Republicans all resignations, two previously held by Democrats, one resignation and one death. Two Incumbent Republicans have lost in a Primary and two Incumbent Democrat have as well. This results in 65 Open Seats, 42 currently/were held by Republicans, 23 currently/were held by Democrats
** Denotes any of the PA districts which will be new for 2018. I noted what the old seats were numbered and the estimated 12 & 16 results of the new seats vs old seats where applicable.
Republican held open seats
1. AZ-2 Martha McSally- Running for Senate
Clinton 49.6-44.7, Romney 49.9-48.4
2. CA-39 Ed Royce- Retiring
Clinton 51.5-42.9, Romney 50.8-47.1
3. CA-49 Darrell Issa- Retiring
Clinton 50.7-3.2, Romney 52.4-45.7
4. FL-6 Ron Desantis- Running or Gov
Trump 56.9-39.9, Romney 52.2-46.6
5. FL-15 Dennis Ross- Retiring
Trump 53.1-43.1, Romney 52.2-46.6
6. FL-17 Tom Rooney- Retiring
Trump 62.2-35.0, Romney 57.6-41.3
7. FL-27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen- Retiring
Clinton 58.5-38.9 Obama 53.0-46.3
17. NM-2 Steve Pearce Running for Gov
Trump 50.1-39.9 Romney 51.7-44.9
18. ND-AL Kevin Cramer- Running for Senate
Trump 64.1-27.7 Romney 58.7-38.9
19. NY-27 Chris Collins- Suspended Re-election campaign following indictment
Trump 59.7-35.2, Romney 55.3-42.9
20. OH-16 Jim Renacci- Running for Gov
Trump 56.1-39.5 Romney 53.4-45.2
21. OK-1 Jim Birdenstine- Resigned to become Administrator of NASA- Special Election to be held concurrently
Trump 61.4-32.7, Romney 65.8-34.2
**22. PA-5 Patrick Meehan-Resigned (mostly old PA-7) Special Election will be held Concurrently in old PA-7
Clinton 62.6- 34.4, Obama 64.5- 34.5 (old Clinton 49.3-47.0, Romney 50.4-48.5)
**23. PA-06 Ryan Cosetllo Retiring
Clinton 52.6-43.3, Obama 51.0-47.8
**24. PA-7 Charlie Dent- Resigned (mostly old PA-15) Special Election in old PA-15 to be held concurrent with General
Clinton 48.7-47.6, Obama 52.9-45.9 (old Trump 51.8-44.2 Romney 50.8-47.9)
**25. PA-9 Lou Barletta- Running for Senate (mostly old PA-11)
Trump 61.0-31.0, Romney 57.2-41.2 ( old Trump 60.0-36.2 Romney 53.9-44.5)
**26. PA-13 Bill Schuster- Retiring (mostly old PA-9)
Trump 71.0-25.5, Romney 66.8-31.8 (old Trump 69.7-27.2, Romney 62.8-35.9)
27 SC-1 Mark Sanford- Lost in Primary
Trump 53.5-40.4, Romney 58.3-40.2
15. NV-4 Ruben Kihuen- Retiring
Clinton 49.5-44.6, Obama 54.4-43.7
16. NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter- Retiring
Trump 48.2-46.6 Obama 50.2-48.6
17. NM-1 Michelle Lujan Grisham- Running for Gov
Clinton 51.6-35.1 Obama 55.3-39.6
18. NY-14 Joseph Crowley- Lost in Primary
Clinton 77.7-19.8, Obama 80.7-18.3
19. NY-25 Louise Slaughter- Passed Away- Special Election to be held concurrently
Clinton 55.5-39.1, Obama 58.8-39.4
20 ** PA-04 Bob Brady - Retiring/ Brandon Boyle of the old PA-13 running in new PA-02 (mostly old PA-1) which opens this seat
Clinton 57.9-38.5 , Obama 56.1-42.8
21. **PA-14 Connor Lamb- (mostly old PA-18) running in new PA-17 against Incumbent due to redistricting
Trump 62.9-33.9, Romney 58.3-40.6
22. TX-16 Beto O'Rourke- Running for Senate
Clinton 67.9-27.2 Obama 64.2-34.5
23. TX-29 Gene Green- Retiring
Clinton 71.1-25.4, Obama 65.9-33.0
Nevada Senate - Heller vs. Rose, Rosen 47, Heller 45 Rosen +2
West Virginia Senate - Morrisey vs. Manchin, Manchin 45, Morrisey 33 Manchin +12
Minnesota Senate Special Election - Housley vs. Smith (D), Smith 44, Housley 37 Smith +7
Minnesota Senate - Newberger vs. Klobuchar, Klobuchar 60, Newberger 30 Klobuchar +30
Tennessee Breseden vs. Blackburn, Breseden 50, Blackburn 45, Bredesen +5
Arizona Sinema vs. McSalley, Sinema 50 McSalley 43, Sinema + 7
Missouri Macskill vs. Hawley.. 45 all, tied up.
Florida Nelson vs. Scott, Nelson 45, Scott 44... Nelson +1...
Looks like undecideds are breaking for the democrats in a lot of these races & the numbers are starting to show this. With these numbers above the democrats win the senate if they hold Missouri. Two states going against the dems in the polls currently are Texas & North Dakota, both have had huge ad buys in recent weeks as these are two of the four big battleground states.
Another Missouri poll which came out after my update yesterday.
Missouri Senate - Hawley vs. McCaskill Trafalgar Group (R) Hawley 47, McCaskill 44 Hawley +3
This was a republican poll done by Hawley's campaign & released to the press. This shows the best case scenerio for Hawley as it undersamples democrats by about 5 points. Missouri is 45% R/38% Democrat, the poll had it at 45% R/33% Democrat which is the undersampling.
This is going to be an extremely close race, the biggest take from the poll involved the Kavanaugh nomination. Support dropped around 5% for McCaskill if she voted no on Kavanaugh. As of today it looks like she & every other democrat running for re-election breathed a big sigh of relief as it looks like he will not get to a full vote in the Senate & with the alleged sexual assault she has cover for voting no.
The Post article fails to point out that the "blowout" loss in the primary was with only about 15% of the voters that showed up two years ago to elect Crowley to his 10th term.
He's still on the ballot for the Working Families Party. Keep your eye on this one!
Just running through a few updates. Indicted Republican Congressman Chris Collins of NY-27 has gotten back into the race. After his indictment in August Collins suspended his campaign and indicated he will not seek re-election. Republicans were looking to replace him on the ballot and announcement to do so was expected, however earlier this week Collins decided to re-enter the race and will remain on the ballot.
Florida Congressman Ron Desantis who is running for Governor announced that he was resigning from the House in order to concentrate on his run for Governor. This was an open seat, so this moved this to the vacant category. The new Congressman will still be seated with the new Congress in January.
I previously had OK-1 listed as a Special Election concurrent with Election Day following the resignation of Republican Congressman Jim Birdenstine after his appointment to NASA. Just wanted to make a correction as there will not be a Special Election concurrent with Election Day for this seat. The seat will remain vacant until the new Congress is seated in January.
There are three members of the Senate who have indicated they will not seek re-election. All three are Republican and have announced they will retire.
1. Bob Corker- TN
Trump 61-35 Romney 59-39
2. Jeff Flake AZ
Trump 48-45 Romney 53-44
3. Orin Hatch-UT
Trump 45-27, Romney 73-25
Currently there are 53 members of the House that have indicated they will not seek re-election 35 Republicans, 18 Democrats (this doesn't include members who previously resigned). In addition one Democrat is seeking re-election in the same district as an Incumbent Republican and as a result two Incumbents will run against each other. Six seats are currently vacant. Four previously held by Republicans all resignations, two previously held by Democrats, one resignation and one death. Of these six vacant seats, four of them will have Special Elections concurrent with Election Day to serve the remainder of the term, two will not have Special Elections and will remain vacant until the new Congress takes over in January. Two Incumbent Republicans have lost in a Primary and two Incumbent Democrat have as well. This results in 64 Open Seats, 41 currently/were held by Republicans, 23 currently/were held by Democrats
** Denotes any of the PA districts which will be new for 2018. I noted what the old seats were numbered and the estimated 12 & 16 results of the new seats vs old seats where applicable.
Republican held open seats
1. AZ-2 Martha McSally- Running for Senate
Clinton 49.6-44.7, Romney 49.9-48.4
2. CA-39 Ed Royce- Retiring
Clinton 51.5-42.9, Romney 50.8-47.1
3. CA-49 Darrell Issa- Retiring
Clinton 50.7-3.2, Romney 52.4-45.7
4. FL-6 Ron Desantis- Running or Gov, resigned
Trump 56.9-39.9, Romney 52.2-46.6
5. FL-15 Dennis Ross- Retiring
Trump 53.1-43.1, Romney 52.2-46.6
6. FL-17 Tom Rooney- Retiring
Trump 62.2-35.0, Romney 57.6-41.3
7. FL-27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen- Retiring
Clinton 58.5-38.9 Obama 53.0-46.3
17. NM-2 Steve Pearce Running for Gov
Trump 50.1-39.9 Romney 51.7-44.9
18. ND-AL Kevin Cramer- Running for Senate
Trump 64.1-27.7 Romney 58.7-38.9
19. OH-16 Jim Renacci- Running for Gov
Trump 56.1-39.5 Romney 53.4-45.2
20. OK-1 Jim Birdenstine- Resigned to become Administrator of NASA-
Trump 61.4-32.7, Romney 65.8-34.2
**21. PA-5 Patrick Meehan-Resigned (mostly old PA-7) Special Election will be held Concurrently in old PA-7
Clinton 62.6- 34.4, Obama 64.5- 34.5 (old Clinton 49.3-47.0, Romney 50.4-48.5)
**22. PA-06 Ryan Cosetllo Retiring
Clinton 52.6-43.3, Obama 51.0-47.8
**23. PA-7 Charlie Dent- Resigned (mostly old PA-15) Special Election in old PA-15 to be held concurrent with General
Clinton 48.7-47.6, Obama 52.9-45.9 (old Trump 51.8-44.2 Romney 50.8-47.9)
**24. PA-9 Lou Barletta- Running for Senate (mostly old PA-11)
Trump 61.0-31.0, Romney 57.2-41.2 ( old Trump 60.0-36.2 Romney 53.9-44.5)
**25. PA-13 Bill Schuster- Retiring (mostly old PA-9)
Trump 71.0-25.5, Romney 66.8-31.8 (old Trump 69.7-27.2, Romney 62.8-35.9)
26 SC-1 Mark Sanford- Lost in Primary
Trump 53.5-40.4, Romney 58.3-40.2
15. NV-4 Ruben Kihuen- Retiring
Clinton 49.5-44.6, Obama 54.4-43.7
16. NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter- Retiring
Trump 48.2-46.6 Obama 50.2-48.6
17. NM-1 Michelle Lujan Grisham- Running for Gov
Clinton 51.6-35.1 Obama 55.3-39.6
18. NY-14 Joseph Crowley- Lost in Primary
Clinton 77.7-19.8, Obama 80.7-18.3
19. NY-25 Louise Slaughter- Passed Away- Special Election to be held concurrently
Clinton 55.5-39.1, Obama 58.8-39.4
20 ** PA-04 Bob Brady - Retiring/ Brandon Boyle of the old PA-13 running in new PA-02 (mostly old PA-1) which opens this seat
Clinton 57.9-38.5 , Obama 56.1-42.8
21. **PA-14 Connor Lamb- (mostly old PA-18) running in new PA-17 against Incumbent due to redistricting
Trump 62.9-33.9, Romney 58.3-40.6
22. TX-16 Beto O'Rourke- Running for Senate
Clinton 67.9-27.2 Obama 64.2-34.5
23. TX-29 Gene Green- Retiring
Clinton 71.1-25.4, Obama 65.9-33.0
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