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There is no margin of error for the average of polls.
the only way you can compare margin of error is to look at the individual poll.
for example
a poll that has Clinton winning 51-45 with a 10 point margin of error is technically just as "spot on"(By your definition) as one who predicted the election to be 49-46 with a 2 point margin of error.
you cant average the separate margins of errors for that reason. Sites like RCP are not recalculating those numbers in their "poll of polls"
That's what I was referring to, even is I wasn't so clear in expressing that. The margin of error for the individual polls. The margin of error for these polls is generally below +/- 3% from my experience. Most polls in the closing days that led to the average of 3.6% in favor of Hillary favored Hillary by more than 3%.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident
That's what I was referring to, even is I wasn't so clear in expressing that. The margin of error for the individual polls. The margin of error for these polls is generally below +/- 3% from my experience. Most polls in the closing days that led to the average of 3.6% in favor of Hillary favored Hillary by more than 3%.
But even in that context, you would still be wrong.
Bloomberg had a 3 point thread, the MoE was 3.1 but even if the MoE had been 2, you would still be wrong because that 2 goes in either direction, not one.
The same is true of the ABC poll, which was 4 point spread, 2.5 MoE. and so on and so forth.
for most of the polls, there only had to be an M.o.E. of 1 to 1.5 to get the election "spot on"
But even in that context, you would still be wrong.
Bloomberg had a 3 point thread, the MoE was 3.1 but even if the MoE had been 2, you would still be wrong because that 2 goes in either direction, not one.
The same is true of the ABC poll, which was 4 point spread, 2.5 MoE. and so on and so forth.
for most of the polls, there only had to be an M.o.E. of 1 to 1.5 to get the election "spot on"
I vote republican in just about every election, but I will be voting for Doug Jones this time. Roy Moore is just a bigoted nutjob and an embarrassment to our state.
Roy Moore is up 6 points in a state that Trump carried by 28 just 10 months ago. I can’t wait to see how badly Trump weighs down Republicans across the country during the midterms.
Trump is not weighing him down. This is a particularly extreme candidate, which explains why he is not up more.
I think you will be surprised by the result of the midterms.
Moore will still win. They elected Trump and evangelicals are his strongest supporters. With Republicans, "conservative values" are extremely negotiable.
Moore will still win. They elected Trump and evangelicals are his strongest supporters. With Republicans, "conservative values" are extremely negotiable.
Most likely yes.
There's no level of depravity or utter immorality that the extreme right won't support, so long as he professes his hatred for the right groups of people.
Oh, show us the way to the next little girl
Oh, don't ask why, no, don't ask why
For we must find the next little girl
Or if we don't find the next little girl
I tell you we must die, I tell you we must die
I tell you, I tell you, I tell you we must die
---Bertolt Brecht
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