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Right now, I believe his approval rating with Republicans is still in the 90% range, which means his base is very, very solid. Remarkably solid at that.
You guys still don't get it.
Trump's "base" doesn't identify as being Republican. Silly labels are pointless.
Case in point. NC votes for Trump while voting out a Republican Governor.
its not his overall rating that matters, its his rating with republicans that does. if trump drops below 50% approval with republicans in the next two years, then a proper challenger has a real chance at beating trump in the primaries. but that challenger wont be jeff fake or john kaisich. it will be someone strong and bold, perhaps even bolder than trump, and that isnt anyone right now in the republican party.
For ordinary voters, this is true.
But for the folks who run the campaigns and the folks who fund the campaigns, general popularity ratings do matter. A lot.
And while they read the same polls that we all see, they will also be doing their own private polling.
If I recall correctly, Trump already got primaried by no less than 16 or so candidates. How did that turn out ? I'm not worried for Trump.
And just about all those other candidates had some kind of governing track record, so Trump could campaign as the outsider who could clean them all up.
He won't be able to do that ever again. He now has a record of tweets and actions.
Right now, I believe his approval rating with Republicans is still in the 90% range, which means his base is very, very solid. Remarkably solid at that.
actually i think it is in the 80% range, but you are right it is a solid 80+%
Quote:
Originally Posted by jacqueg
For ordinary voters, this is true.
But for the folks who run the campaigns and the folks who fund the campaigns, general popularity ratings do matter. A lot.
And while they read the same polls that we all see, they will also be doing their own private polling.
yes these people read the same published polls, and they do their own private polling as well. but that only matters when they are considering helping a campaign. in trumps case he didnt ask for help, he kind of didnt need that kind of help. i think trump knew that he would have issues getting campaign funding for a 2016 run. that may change though in 2020 depending on how things go from here on out.
actually i think it is in the 80% range, but you are right it is a solid 80+%
yes these people read the same published polls, and they do their own private polling as well. but that only matters when they are considering helping a campaign. in trumps case he didnt ask for help, he kind of didnt need that kind of help. i think trump knew that he would have issues getting campaign funding for a 2016 run. that may change though in 2020 depending on how things go from here on out.
IIRC, that was mostly true for the nomination. During the general, he took money from the RNC and solicited donations.
Not saying that there's anything wrong with those actions, there isn't. But I doubt that anyone thinks he will need a smaller war chest next time.
Trump sure doesn't think he will need a smaller war chest, he incorporated his reelection campaign right after he was inaugurated.
again, if Dems are confident, they have nothing to worry about and should be able to nominate anyone
if democrats want to win the white house in 2020, they are going to have to find a good candidate that doesnt play identity politics, that has rock star appeal, and that has a positive message for the country, and a positive vision for the country.
If Trump's poll numbers are below 30% approval, I would expect he would have chllegers. I would also expect Trump to pull an LBJ and withdraw if his primary numbers are low.
^^^ This ^^^
Trump will make an exit, claiming victory in all kinds of ways to shield his ego.
Then the long knives will come out and it will be a bloody primary season.
Cruz will be in it, maybe Paul Ryan, Rubio and Rand Paul.
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