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Old 01-22-2018, 05:58 AM
 
33,748 posts, read 16,749,502 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nononsenseguy View Post
The Democraps need to be utterly wiped out in 2018. They are all Socialists ...idiots!

GOP should add 4 seats with ease. It may get as big as a 6-7 seat GOP pickup.

We are looking at GOP Senate control well into next decade.

MAGA
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Old 01-22-2018, 05:59 AM
 
Location: Swiftwater, PA
18,754 posts, read 17,972,534 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nononsenseguy View Post
The Democraps need to be utterly wiped out in 2018. They are all Socialists ...idiots!
I would love to see my PA State Senator on the outside looking in.
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Old 01-22-2018, 09:22 AM
 
5,230 posts, read 6,151,247 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
2020 Senate is actually favorable GOP, less so than wonderful 2018.

2022 favors Dems. Of course, 2022 is same map Dems underachieved on In '16.

Of the 3 years, 2018 is the most favorable to either by a wide margin, given how the underdog has fared in states involved.
2020 is not an R favorable map. You will have a slew of R candidates who won their initial terms in the 2014 R wave. I think you can put a fork in Cory Gardner at the start. A lot of those seats will also turn on top of the ticket performance in a Presidential year. I think Maine will also go D because most Rs don't like Collins and she will be fighting a better D turnout for the Presidential election. North Carolina should be competitive.


Iowa is the state that either returns to purple status or officially transitions R. I think it could go either way but the weird quirk about Iowa is that a lot people are worried about losing trade agreements that open foreign markets for agriculture exports.


This year I think Indiana is an all but assured R pickup with North Dakota being the second most likely. Montana may or may not be tough- it has a history of voting for D senators and governors while being a otherwise solid R state. I think McCaskill grandstanding over guaranteeing military pay last week might actually be what saves her. In Florida I think it will be close regardless but I think the influx of new bodies and Ds being more motivated will save Nelson. Everyone seems to forget Puerto Ricans are already US citizens so they just added a couple of hundred thousand votes to a swing state.
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Old 01-22-2018, 10:58 AM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
3,084 posts, read 2,148,017 times
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The Senate map is very unfavorable for Democrats in 2018 - but historically, incumbents from the opposite party to the current president seldom lose, even in states where the president himself performed well in the previous election. Some of the red state Democrats have drawn strong challengers, but not all. The likely Republican nominees at this point in North Dakota and Montana are very obscure, while Indiana and West Virginia have highly contested primaries coming up, and it is unclear who will emerge on top from those. Missouri appears to have a higher profile likely nominee with their recently elected Attorney General, but with the controversy surrounding their Republican governor he has the potential for running into landmines.

I do think that if Clinton was the president instead of Trump, 2018 would turn out to be very similar to 2014 and 2010 and several Democrats would end up losing. But the environment with a Republican president and Congress who have underwater approvals is not the same. If Alabama, one of the most solidly Republican and inelastic states in the nation, could choose a Democratic senator in an open seat race (yes, I know Moore was extremely problematic, but there are other recent examples of bad nominees from both parties), then expecting several other states to re-elect their Democratic senators is not a huge stretch. Manchin, Heitkamp, Tester, Donnelly and McCaskill are absolutely not equivalent to Hillary Clinton despite their party affiliation, and they all represent states that while leaning conservative, have a significant independent voting block who is inclined to be skeptical of one-party rule. It's certainly possible a few of them will lose, but in the current dynamic it doesn't look like Republicans will make significant net gains in the Senate. Defending the Nevada and Arizona seats will also take some work.
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Old 01-22-2018, 12:10 PM
 
79,902 posts, read 43,880,406 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cruzincat View Post
A lot of those coal miners now owe their jobs to Trump.
The Trump administration said no to the sale of the last large scale coal fired power plant in the area. That means it is only time before it shuts down.

Update: Local business leaders react to federal rejection of FirstEnergy Pleasants Power Station sale
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Old 01-22-2018, 12:53 PM
 
Location: The 719
17,883 posts, read 27,278,691 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PilgrimsProgress View Post
Trump isn't touching Medicare and SS for current recipients. Dems always drag that one out of their tattered playbook, with Pelosi, running down the street in her nightgown screaming "You're all going to die!".
There's a sight for sore eyes.

Snowflakes... Waa! Not My Pwesident! Waa!

Nancy doggie-doodoo Pelosi... You're all going to die!

Chuck Schumer...
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Old 01-22-2018, 05:02 PM
 
7,827 posts, read 3,346,016 times
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GOP will pick up MO, IN, FL and ND. Dems might pick up NV and AZ.
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Old 01-22-2018, 05:07 PM
 
33,748 posts, read 16,749,502 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EastwardBound View Post
GOP will pick up MO, IN, FL and ND. Dems might pick up NV and AZ.
Dems will not grab Az. Az is their fools gold-they think immigration will save them, but, inevitably, the state stays solid R.
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Old 01-22-2018, 05:34 PM
 
Location: Earth
17,440 posts, read 28,470,684 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Dems will not grab Az. Az is their fools gold-they think immigration will save them, but, inevitably, the state stays solid R.
AZ is a reddish purple state and the Dems probably will win the Senate seat, that was a contributing factor to why Flake retired.

Trump only won AZ because of an endorsement from McCain, despite their personal enmity - and McCain won by a much greater margin than Trump.

If McCain quits or dies less than 6 months before November then there is no special election and there is a possibility that both AZ Senate seats could go Dem.

If Arpaio somehow wins the primary for Flake's seat then the same thing that happened in AL happens in AZ - and AZ has more Dems than AL.
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Old 01-22-2018, 06:09 PM
 
79,902 posts, read 43,880,406 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by majoun View Post
AZ is a reddish purple state and the Dems probably will win the Senate seat, that was a contributing factor to why Flake retired.

Trump only won AZ because of an endorsement from McCain, despite their personal enmity - and McCain won by a much greater margin than Trump.

If McCain quits or dies less than 6 months before November then there is no special election and there is a possibility that both AZ Senate seats could go Dem.

If Arpaio somehow wins the primary for Flake's seat then the same thing that happened in AL happens in AZ - and AZ has more Dems than AL.
Arpaio = Moore. Does the GOP learn that lesson or not? (The (D)'s have not learned any).
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