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Old 03-23-2018, 08:11 PM
 
Location: Indianapolis
2,295 posts, read 2,142,084 times
Reputation: 3108

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Quote:
Originally Posted by db108108 View Post

Reddit recently got dinged for Russian bots - wonder how many City Data has? I refuse to believe that there are people SO dense in this country. What color is the sky in your world, bud?
I know there are Russian trolls on CD.

I knew it for sure when I saw a poster talk about the "thousands" of "veterans" in his "reserved unit" who "supported" Trump's military parade idea.

First of all, active reserve and NG members don't call themselves "veterans." They also would never call it a "reserved" unit. Furthermore, I'm a veteran and I'm married to a spouse who still serves, and most members I talked to hated the idea. They hate having to show up for change-of-command ceremonies, let alone some ego-stroke nonsense parade in D.C.
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Old 03-23-2018, 08:21 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
30,893 posts, read 13,451,753 times
Reputation: 21997
Quote:
Originally Posted by Knox Harrington View Post
I know there are Russian trolls on CD.

I knew it for sure when I saw a poster talk about the "thousands" of "veterans" in his "reserved unit" who "supported" Trump's military parade idea.

First of all, active reserve and NG members don't call themselves "veterans." They also would never call it a "reserved" unit. Furthermore, I'm a veteran and I'm married to a spouse who still serves, and most members I talked to hated the idea. They hate having to show up for change-of-command ceremonies, let alone some ego-stroke nonsense parade in D.C.
same poster, definitely not a native English speaker "Trump's EO is based on the law.......what mistake he made"
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Old 03-24-2018, 08:47 AM
 
15,311 posts, read 17,517,106 times
Reputation: 13407
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boss View Post
After the last couple of days and the POTUS actions, GOP loses both the House and Senate. Trump starts another worthless war in his effort to get reelected
Wait for the trade war with China. Next week, China likely will announce the retaliatory list of US goods.
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Old 03-25-2018, 02:09 AM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
21,249 posts, read 14,269,308 times
Reputation: 15758
Quote:
Originally Posted by sware2cod View Post
Wait for the trade war with China. Next week, China likely will announce the retaliatory list of US goods.
Yup. The next war won't be fought with guns. Or the one after that.
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Old 03-25-2018, 09:22 PM
 
18,688 posts, read 7,260,945 times
Reputation: 7997
I now agree GOP will likely lose the House. Parkland is the turning point.

I adore great political strategy from either party. Watching Carville and Conway I found equally enjoyable, as both understood what mattered. Swing votes. The rest are superfluous.

If the DNC is smart, they will use every B or better voting record from the NRA against their opponents. I'd use split screens, one with NRA voting grade of candidate, half screen Parkland students walking out in fear. No words. Other than "That is what you are voting for with Congressman or Candidate _______".

Do it in races where historically the results are within say 12%, and if you simply shift a small %, convince a small % not to vote, volla you won the race.

NRA voters will back those folks as they always do. But even amongst gun owners NRA polls more unfavorable than favorable. Add in the majority of Americans who own no guns in swing vote possible column, and volla, I expect Dems to sail into control of House of Representatives, unless meaningful additional gun control measures pass in the 2nd or 3rd quarters.
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Old 03-25-2018, 09:49 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,240 posts, read 11,483,700 times
Reputation: 4305
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
I now agree GOP will likely lose the House. Parkland is the turning point.

I adore great political strategy from either party. Watching Carville and Conway I found equally enjoyable, as both understood what mattered. Swing votes. The rest are superfluous.

If the DNC is smart, they will use every B or better voting record from the NRA against their opponents. I'd use split screens, one with NRA voting grade of candidate, half screen Parkland students walking out in fear. No words. Other than "That is what you are voting for with Congressman or Candidate _______".

Do it in races where historically the results are within say 12%, and if you simply shift a small %, convince a small % not to vote, volla you won the race.

NRA voters will back those folks as they always do. But even amongst gun owners NRA polls more unfavorable than favorable. Add in the majority of Americans who own no guns in swing vote possible column, and volla, I expect Dems to sail into control of House of Representatives, unless meaningful additional gun control measures pass in the 2nd or 3rd quarters.
Wow, we are actually on different sides of this.

I actually think these kids will help lose a couple of winnable seats .

I don't vote for deeply conservative Democrats, but I don't vote for deeply progressive ones either .

There are a couple of seat in West Virginia, South Carolina, Tennessee , Kentucky and yes, Florida that Dems are putting a lot of money into that would get hurt by this .
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Old 03-25-2018, 09:54 PM
 
18,688 posts, read 7,260,945 times
Reputation: 7997
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
Wow, we are actually on different sides of this.

I actually think these kids will help lose a couple of winnable seats .

I don't vote for deeply conservative Democrats, but I don't vote for deeply progressive ones either .

There are a couple of seat in West Virginia, South Carolina, Tennessee , Kentucky and yes, Florida that Dems are putting a lot of money into that would get hurt by this .
Southeast is not the swing seats needed. Normally red portions of California, normally red portions of ACELA Belt, normally swing/red Southwest seats should be their target.

This issue properly scares the RNC. Getting good NRA marks will be like getting endorsed by NAMBLA in true swing districts. A mark of shame they are tagged with.

GOP will add Senate seats, but losing the House is extremely problematic.
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Old 03-25-2018, 10:15 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,240 posts, read 11,483,700 times
Reputation: 4305
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Southeast is not the swing seats needed. Normally red portions of California, normally red portions of ACELA Belt, normally swing/red Southwest seats should be their target.

This issue properly scares the RNC. Getting good NRA marks will be like getting endorsed by NAMBLA in true swing districts. A mark of shame they are tagged with.

GOP will add Senate seats, but losing the House is extremely problematic.
The DNC has a 101 seat list of targets, but the DCCC only has about 30 on it's Red to Blue Target list .

Of those 30

1 in Arizona , 3 in Florida, 1 in Colorado, 1 in Iowa( at this point, losing those 6 gives Dems a 1 seat majority)1 in Kansas , 2 in North Carolina , 1 in South Carolina , 2 in Texas.

So 24/30 ( or to get to a majority of 218) means Dems need to win 80% of races they believe they have a chance in .

I just don't think this works in those districts.
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Old 03-25-2018, 10:21 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
30,893 posts, read 13,451,753 times
Reputation: 21997
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
The DNC has a 101 seat list of targets, but the DCCC only has about 30 on it's Red to Blue Target list .

Of those 30

1 in Arizona , 3 in Florida, 1 in Colorado, 1 in Iowa( at this point, losing those 6 gives Dems a 1 seat majority)1 in Kansas , 2 in North Carolina , 1 in South Carolina , 2 in Texas.

So 24/30 ( or to get to a majority of 218) means Dems need to win 80% of races they believe they have a chance in .

I just don't think this works in those districts.
DCCC has 70 on their red to blue target list:

https://dccc.org/majority-makers/
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Old 03-25-2018, 10:27 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,240 posts, read 11,483,700 times
Reputation: 4305
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
DCCC has 70 on their red to blue target list:

https://dccc.org/majority-makers/
Majority makers =/= Red to blue



https://redtoblue.dccc.org/

Quote:
The key to winning back a Democratic House is right here -- with diverse candidates like those below. Red to Blue is a highly competitive and battle-tested program at the DCCC that arms top-tier candidates with organizational and fundraising support to help them continue to run strong campaigns. Come November, these candidates and others will take the fight to Paul Ryan’s House Republicans -- and fight to flip these seats from red to blue.

in short

Majority makers = we think we can win here, but dont bet on it

Red to Blue = We put money in these races
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