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Old 03-02-2018, 08:59 PM
 
2,893 posts, read 1,065,189 times
Reputation: 2438

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I don't know about the Senate, they might keep that. However, it's their cockiness, not to mention lack of follow through, that is going to hurt them.


The Democrats had all three branches after winning in 2008. They got really cocky and thought the party would last forever. Then they lost the House in 2010.



I think that the GOP is still too much in "victory mode" from the 2016 victories to see the danger. True, thanks to the biased media and the constant FBI, etc attacks on Trump, we're more awake, but I still believe the GOP to be vastly overconfident.


The Democrats were overconfident in 2016 and lost. While they still haven't gotten over that loss, I do think that they learned from their mistakes and WON'T fall so easily the next time around.



I'm particularly worried about their efforts to flip the youth. Starting with anti-Trump walkouts after the November election in 2016, it's now spread to anti-gun walkouts, pushed by the very public school systems that we send our kids to. And those systems lean heavily Democrat.


Another danger is DACA. If Trump legalizes 1.8 million (or more), it's going to irk a lot of his base. And the DACA deadline is approaching (though maybe some putz in a federal court can kick the can down the road again.)

Also, the GOP has failed on its promises to defund Obamacare (heck, they don't even talk about it anymore) or defund Planned Parenthood.


Now they are insulting us with DACA and gun control.
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Old 03-03-2018, 12:39 AM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
21,295 posts, read 14,293,987 times
Reputation: 15784
Tipping the House will be harder than the Senate. The Republican majority is much narrower in the Senate.

But the House is the generator, the power house of Congress, the place where it all begins. If the GOP can pull itself together and get on the right side of one of those constituencies that are big and oppositional, they could hold the House.

DACA is not an equally important or powerful constituency everywhere. It's big in some districts and not in others. I think that if the members who represent those big districts could change their tune and get the DACA folks on their side, once added up, Ryan and the leadership would have to find a way to bend the direction in their favor.

Some kind of gun regulation is a much more widespread and urgent issue right now. Not everyone is concerned about DACA, but every family with children is very worried about school shootings. There have been 70 reported threats a day in the past two weeks.
Here in Idaho, just in my part of this big state, there were 3 this week. One in my hometown, another in a town 25 miles away, and a third in still another town 100 miles away. All 3 highs schools were closed up until the children were sent home while the cops and deputies protected the schools, and only one, the one here, re-opened the next day.

This is happening all over the U.S., and it can't continue like this for long. There is no motivation for change that's stronger than a frantic parent who fears for their child's life. I live 2 blocks away from the high school, and I could hear the parent's screaming and commotion from my living room.

But the schools shootings and DACA have the same basic element: Kids. Nobody likes to have their kids safety and lives threatened, period. Every family has kids in it somewhere.

It's basic politics. Gotta go where the people want them to go once in a while. Change is what everyone wants to see happen. Some big response is vitally needed right now. It doesn't have to be the solution, just a change.
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Old 03-03-2018, 10:02 AM
 
6,964 posts, read 2,487,792 times
Reputation: 3526
Although numerically the D’s are closer to taking the Senate, it’s going to be easier to flip the House, due to the large number of vulnerable Democratic Senators from red states.

You need a net 24 seat flip to the Democrats to flip control of the House. Here’s how the Cook Political Report currently handicaps the race for control.

75 Republican held seats are listed as competitive but only 19 Democratic held ones. Within those numbers, 27 R seats are listed as tossup or worse, compared to 3 D seats. Because of their success in recent elections, the Republicans are holding more marginal seats than the Democrats, and thus are facing the opposite situation than they face in the Senate, where this cycle the map in in their favor.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...e-race-ratings
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Old 03-03-2018, 03:59 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,794 posts, read 14,237,332 times
Reputation: 7950
Turnout in mid-terms tends to favor Republicans.


According to the numbers supplied by Bureaucat, if Dems win half+1 of the House tossup seats, they gain 13, so not enough to flip control. But if they win just 11 of the remaining 48 (75-27=48) 'competitive' seats they would gain control of the House.
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Old 03-03-2018, 05:48 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,550 posts, read 734,794 times
Reputation: 1655
Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz View Post
Turnout in mid-terms tends to favor Republicans.

That's true when a Democrat is president. But with a Republican president, the dynamics tend to be different - and Democratic voters are more motivated. At least this has been true so far in the majority of special elections since Trump took office.
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Old 03-03-2018, 06:36 PM
 
6,964 posts, read 2,487,792 times
Reputation: 3526
Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz View Post
Turnout in mid-terms tends to favor Republicans.


According to the numbers supplied by Bureaucat, if Dems win half+1 of the House tossup seats, they gain 13, so not enough to flip control. But if they win just 11 of the remaining 48 (75-27=48) 'competitive' seats they would gain control of the House.
Actually, there are 7 current R seats where Cook gives Democrats an edge and then 20 R seats and 3 D seats listed as tossup.
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Old 03-04-2018, 12:18 AM
 
5,721 posts, read 5,455,083 times
Reputation: 3605
I still don't know what will happen.

The Republican congress has been awful and ineffective. They still don't understand why Donald Trump won, clearly, and have shown no willingness to move on the issues that carried him to the presidency.

The Democrats have no platform except that they are anti-Trump. But he has forced them into some awkward positions that don't carry favor with a lot of the electorate.

It is too early to make a prediction, IMO. Both parties are in crisis.
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Old 03-04-2018, 05:42 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,745 posts, read 83,373,533 times
Reputation: 41575
Quote:
Originally Posted by MongooseHugger View Post
I don't know about the Senate, they might keep that. However, it's their cockiness, not to mention lack of follow through, that is going to hurt them.


The Democrats had all three branches after winning in 2008. They got really cocky and thought the party would last forever. Then they lost the House in 2010.



I think that the GOP is still too much in "victory mode" from the 2016 victories to see the danger. True, thanks to the biased media and the constant FBI, etc attacks on Trump, we're more awake, but I still believe the GOP to be vastly overconfident.


The Democrats were overconfident in 2016 and lost. While they still haven't gotten over that loss, I do think that they learned from their mistakes and WON'T fall so easily the next time around.



I'm particularly worried about their efforts to flip the youth. Starting with anti-Trump walkouts after the November election in 2016, it's now spread to anti-gun walkouts, pushed by the very public school systems that we send our kids to. And those systems lean heavily Democrat.


Another danger is DACA. If Trump legalizes 1.8 million (or more), it's going to irk a lot of his base. And the DACA deadline is approaching (though maybe some putz in a federal court can kick the can down the road again.)

Also, the GOP has failed on its promises to defund Obamacare (heck, they don't even talk about it anymore) or defund Planned Parenthood.


Now they are insulting us with DACA and gun control.
Nothing is impossible but your prediction is pretty far out and few with any knowledge would agree. In fact it is probably more likely they might get control of the senate.

The odds do favor the other party in mid term elections. This has nothing to do with over confident or anything else. This is just fact versus someone's feelings. The reason for this is: every president makes promises they can not keep no matter how hard they try. Thus the other party gets a chance to try their luck.

Right now Trump and the GOP are working hard to find a solution to the gun issue as well as DACA. Other issues like Obamacare are on the back burner but will be front as soon as a few other things are solved.

I am not terribly concerned about the youth as they do not turn out in large numbers.
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Old 03-04-2018, 05:45 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,745 posts, read 83,373,533 times
Reputation: 41575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Although numerically the Dís are closer to taking the Senate, itís going to be easier to flip the House, due to the large number of vulnerable Democratic Senators from red states.

You need a net 24 seat flip to the Democrats to flip control of the House. Hereís how the Cook Political Report currently handicaps the race for control.

75 Republican held seats are listed as competitive but only 19 Democratic held ones. Within those numbers, 27 R seats are listed as tossup or worse, compared to 3 D seats. Because of their success in recent elections, the Republicans are holding more marginal seats than the Democrats, and thus are facing the opposite situation than they face in the Senate, where this cycle the map in in their favor.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...e-race-ratings
you are right there. Of course as in the past, what looks like toss ups, or sure things are not holding so true any more.
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Old 03-04-2018, 10:55 AM
 
78,288 posts, read 33,358,137 times
Reputation: 15667
I see something happening in WV I would not have predicted even a month ago.

I can absolutely see Richard Ojeda taking Even Jenkins House seat. Jenkins is running to replace Manchin where he has no chance. We are in a teachers strike and Ojeda is everywhere. His name recognition has to be going through the roof and he is pretty much saying and doing the right things. The (R)'s on the state level are shooting themselves in the foot every time they turn around.

I'm not in his district and I'm not real big on his military gung ho stuff but he has a real chance at swinging a seat. (R) and (D) isn't the same in WV like it is in many other places. It's nowhere near as blindly partisan, no crossing party lines for nothing doesn't happen here as much. In the southern part of the state where he is running the majority are still registered (D).

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-collar-voters
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