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Old 03-14-2018, 04:24 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
14,698 posts, read 8,501,199 times
Reputation: 29413

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On the heels of Trump's rally in PA, Democrat Conor Lamb pulls off a stunning upset, narrowly winning the PA House seat in an area where Trump defeated Clinton by 20 points.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/14/u...8&ref=headline
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Old 03-14-2018, 04:28 PM
 
45,317 posts, read 17,980,663 times
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The election is still being contested.

There's a topic in the elections forum about it.
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Old 03-14-2018, 04:28 PM
 
Location: Old Hippie Heaven
18,298 posts, read 8,240,161 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74 View Post
It was turnout. There are actually more registered Democrats in PA18, but they don't vote as much, which is why it's been a GOP held seat for a decade and a half - and in some years, the Democrats didn't even field a candidate, which only contributed to the Dem voter apathy of course.

I'm not saying there was no crossover vote, but I think that turnout was the main factor, combined with having a fresh, young and appealing candidate who put together a great ground game to get people to the polls. People want to say that this is a blueprint for other races in terms of policy, but it's really more about organization and for a first timer, he did an amazing job putting together a team that pulled this off.

I think odds are extremely high for a win in the new district in November, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hold that for a couple of terms and then run for Toomey's seat in 2022.
I ESPECIALLY like this - https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...tionSurvey.pdf - and hope it proves true for other races.
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Old 03-14-2018, 04:34 PM
 
Location: St Paul
7,510 posts, read 3,532,450 times
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I see this a positive development. Lamb was a very good candidate. A young, handsome, military man, who's tough on crime, pro 2nd amendment (including assault rifles), backs Trump's trade policies, does not support sanctuary cities or open borders, is pro-life, distances himself from progressive policy, wants Nancy Pelosi ousted and won't criticize Trump.

The DNC is now actively trying to get minorities and far left extremists out of races they think they can win with conservative Democrats like Lamb. If they continue to move to the right like this, the GOP might never win another election. That would mean the D's are moving away from their extremist, progressive platform, nominating quality candidates and the GOP would have to do the same. Win-win.
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Old 03-14-2018, 04:38 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
14,698 posts, read 8,501,199 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason3000 View Post
I see this a positive development. Lamb was a very good candidate. A young, handsome, military man, who's tough on crime, pro 2nd amendment (including assault rifles), backs Trump's trade policies, does not support sanctuary cities or open borders, is pro-life, distances himself from progressive policy, wants Nancy Pelosi ousted and won't criticize Trump.

The DNC is now actively trying to get minorities and far left extremists out of races they think they can win with conservative Democrats like Lamb. If they continue to move to the right like this, the GOP might never win another election. That would mean the D's are reforming their extremist nonsense and nominating quality candidates and the GOP would have to do the same. Win-win.
I agree completely. Democrats have hopefully learned a lesson. They need to bring a cohesive message to the people. "We will offer X, Y, and Z if you vote for us." Just saying they are the anti whatever party is not enough. Lamb's message of moderation was heard loud and clear by Republican and Democrat voters. Even if the election is contested and Lamb ultimately loses, the Republicans have reason to be nervous at these developments.
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Old 03-14-2018, 04:42 PM
 
Location: St Paul
7,510 posts, read 3,532,450 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scooby Snacks View Post
I agree completely. Democrats have hopefully learned a lesson. They need to bring a cohesive message to the people. "We will offer X, Y, and Z if you vote for us." Just saying they are the anti whatever party is not enough. Lamb's message of moderation was heard loud and clear by Republican and Democrat voters. Even if the election is contested and Lamb ultimately loses, the Republicans have reason to be nervous at these developments.
The big question is how many Conor Lamb's do they have on the bench? He's almost too perfect to replicate and how will actively asking minority and progressive candidates to step down from their respective races sit with the far left of the party? Are the cop-hating, open borders, BLM, Oakland coffee shop crowd going to vote for a straight, White, religious, marine or will they split the party and back another Bernie Sanders type?
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Old 03-14-2018, 04:44 PM
 
Location: My House
34,652 posts, read 29,007,136 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
The election is still being contested.

There's a topic in the elections forum about it.
It is unlikely to swing against him, but if it does, it still looks bad for Team Trump and the rest of the Repubs.
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Old 03-14-2018, 04:46 PM
 
Location: too far from the sea
19,871 posts, read 18,881,066 times
Reputation: 33800
Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74 View Post
It was turnout. There are actually more registered Democrats in PA18, but they don't vote as much, which is why it's been a GOP held seat for a decade and a half - and in some years, the Democrats didn't even field a candidate, which only contributed to the Dem voter apathy of course.

I'm not saying there was no crossover vote, but I think that turnout was the main factor, combined with having a fresh, young and appealing candidate who put together a great ground game to get people to the polls. People want to say that this is a blueprint for other races in terms of policy, but it's really more about organization and for a first timer, he did an amazing job putting together a team that pulled this off.

I think odds are extremely high for a win in the new district in November, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hold that for a couple of terms and then run for Toomey's seat in 2022.
I think so. It could mirror the past presidential election where the Dems didn't really want Hillary and many who voted only turned up to stop Trump. So much apathy. Now that Dems are seeing, to their horror, what the Trump administration is like, they have more of a reason to get out and vote.
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Old 03-14-2018, 04:49 PM
 
26,304 posts, read 12,862,103 times
Reputation: 12551
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason3000 View Post
Are the cop-hating, open borders, BLM, Oakland coffee shop crowd going to vote for a straight, White, religious, marine or will they split the party and back another Bernie Sanders type?
Cop hating? Uhmmm...no the left doesn't hate cops. Sure some of the loons might, but not the vast majority.

open borders? Again, VERY few actual open borders folks. Thats more of a libertarian thing.

Oakland coffee shop? I got news for you, some of us dont even drink coffee.

Straight white religeous marine? Also...not a huge issue as long as they arent looking to force their views on us.

Bernie Sanders meets all of this-he doesnt hate cops, isnt for open borders, is straight, and white. I dont think him not being a past marine, or his views on coffee matter.

Your whole post shows a true lack of comprehension of what the left IS. Its not this parody you have presented.
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Old 03-14-2018, 04:50 PM
 
Location: My House
34,652 posts, read 29,007,136 times
Reputation: 25628
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason3000 View Post
I see this a positive development. Lamb was a very good candidate. A young, handsome, military man, who's tough on crime, pro 2nd amendment (including assault rifles), backs Trump's trade policies, does not support sanctuary cities or open borders, is pro-life, distances himself from progressive policy, wants Nancy Pelosi ousted and won't criticize Trump.

The DNC is now actively trying to get minorities and far left extremists out of races they think they can win with conservative Democrats like Lamb. If they continue to move to the right like this, the GOP might never win another election. That would mean the D's are moving away from their extremist, progressive platform, nominating quality candidates and the GOP would have to do the same. Win-win.
He's not pro-life. He's anti-abortion and thinks his own views should not affect legislation.

Which is rather Catholic of him, really.

He also supports universal background checks, so maybe we need more of him all around... people who are trying to make some sense instead of being so divisive.

Note: He's got to support steel and aluminum tariffs. He's from steel country. At least he's against the crazy tax plan.
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