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Old 08-12-2018, 03:58 AM
 
37,851 posts, read 14,739,896 times
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Interesting article on how Trump may be contributing to the Blue Wave or Blue Blizzard as some call it.

While his endorsement and rallies boost support of his base, "summoning the president is a bit like wishing on a monkey’s paw" as it turns that "district battle into a referendum on Trump himself."

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018...atic-primaries
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Old 08-12-2018, 04:00 AM
 
37,851 posts, read 14,739,896 times
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Interactive map shows the trends of what would happen if vote tallies across the country changed by the same percentage of these various elections.



https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-s...edc29948f.html
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Old 08-12-2018, 04:02 AM
 
37,851 posts, read 14,739,896 times
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Fascinating article on how Trump is contributing to the Blue Wave or Blue Blizzard as some call it.

While his endorsement and rallies boost support of his base, "summoning the president is a bit like wishing on a monkey’s paw" as it turns that "district battle into a referendum on Trump himself."

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018...atic-primaries
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Old 08-12-2018, 04:16 AM
 
Location: Washington State
18,189 posts, read 9,435,921 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GotHereQuickAsICould View Post
Fascinating article on how Trump is contributing to the Blue Wave or Blue Blizzard as some call it.

While his endorsement and rallies boost support of his base, "summoning the president is a bit like wishing on a monkey’s paw" as it turns that "district battle into a referendum on Trump himself."

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018...atic-primaries
No one can top Obama for crushing his party. Conversely, Trump is going to help Republican candidates in most states. Ther are 10 Dim Senators up for election in states Trump won. There is a virtual certainty that Republicans increase their Senate majority. Right now, hard to say Repubs will increase their House seats but that's also very possible with the economy and no wars.
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Old 08-12-2018, 07:09 AM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,525 posts, read 724,049 times
Reputation: 1619
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
No one can top Obama for crushing his party. Conversely, Trump is going to help Republican candidates in most states. Ther are 10 Dim Senators up for election in states Trump won. There is a virtual certainty that Republicans increase their Senate majority. Right now, hard to say Repubs will increase their House seats but that's also very possible with the economy and no wars.
I agree that the Senate map this cycle is very favorable for Republicans and they are probably going to hold onto the majority.

On the other hand, there is little chance their majority in the House will increase. Trump defeated Clinton in 230 districts, but Republicans started out this Congress with 241 seats, which dropped to 240 once PA-18 flipped in the March special election. There have been far more retirements and weaker fundraising on the Republican side which will make it hard to keep all the open seats. Republicans may very well keep the majority, but I doubt it will be above 230.

The good news for the president is that the more Trump-skeptical Republicans are disproportionately among those heading for the exits.
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Old 08-12-2018, 08:11 AM
 
6,926 posts, read 2,471,258 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
No one can top Obama for crushing his party. Conversely, Trump is going to help Republican candidates in most states. Ther are 10 Dim Senators up for election in states Trump won. There is a virtual certainty that Republicans increase their Senate majority. Right now, hard to say Repubs will increase their House seats but that's also very possible with the economy and no wars.
Nope.

It’s easy to say that the Pubs will lose House seats. It’s a virtual certitude. We just don’t know the extent of the losses. Republicans are paying the price this year for their successes in 2010 and 2014. With the partisanship hardening, Democratic clustering and gerrymandering, there are a relative few competitive seats. After 2010 and 2014, Republicans are defending far more seats that are competitive.According to the latest Cook Political Report House Race Rating, the GOP is defending a total of 87 seats considered less than safe, whereas the Democrats are defending 13. The Republicans hold nearly all of the low hanging fruit and will do very well just to minimize their losses and hold control, not expand their numbers.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...e-race-ratings

The Democrats need to flip 23 seats for Skeletor Nancy to take back the gavel.

Q: What’s the average number of seats lost in the House since World War II for a Praident’s Party when that President has an approval rating of less than 50%?

A: 45.5

That 45.5 number encompasses an era when party lines were much more fluid, but it does show what an anvil an unpopular president has historically had on House races.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 08-12-2018 at 08:58 AM..
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Old 08-12-2018, 09:09 AM
 
Location: Washington State
18,189 posts, read 9,435,921 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Nope.

Itís easy to say that the Pubs will lose House seats. Itís a virtual certitude. We just donít know the extent of the losses. Republicans are paying the price this year for their successes in 2010 and 2014. With the partisanship hardening, Democratic clustering and gerrymandering, there are a relative few competitive seats. After 2010 and 2014, Republicans are defending far more seats that are competitive.According to the latest Cook Political Report House Race Rating, the GOP is defending a total of 87 seats considered less than safe, whereas the Democrats are defending 13. The Republicans hold nearly all of the low hanging fruit and will do very well just to minimize their losses and hold control, not expand their numbers.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...e-race-ratings

The Democrats need to flip 23 seats for Skeletor Nancy to take back the gavel.

Q: Whatís the average number of seats lost in the House since World War II for a Praidentís Party when that President has an approval rating of less than 50%?

A: 45.5

That 45.5 number encompasses an era when party lines were much more fluid, but it does show what an anvil an unpopular president has historically had on House races.
Nope, not when you have a thriving economy, jobs, tax cuts, peace, ISIS nearly wiped out, Noko wanting peace, Russia as an ally.

Yeah I do understand that the mid year's often is harsh for the President's party but even harsher if the President is a Democrat. I thin the prospect of the Dems taking the House is 50%.
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Old 08-12-2018, 09:25 AM
Status: "Soon to be fifty years since moon landing." (set 3 days ago)
 
Location: Suburban Dallas
46,548 posts, read 36,829,382 times
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There's not going to be a blue wave. Many Democrats are leaving the party because they are tired of the extremism, radicalism, negativism, and fascism associated with it, as all that baggage is running rampant in America today. And who, really, wants to drawn to a negative message? Democrats have nothing good to run on. Republicans are going to take advantage, and thanks to former liberals, we should see some results that some may not have expected previously. The establishment is declining some, and more committed Trump supporters are going to stand up.
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Old 08-12-2018, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Denver CO
20,957 posts, read 11,615,689 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
Nope, not when you have a thriving economy, jobs, tax cuts, peace, ISIS nearly wiped out, Noko wanting peace, Russia as an ally.

Yeah I do understand that the mid year's often is harsh for the President's party but even harsher if the President is a Democrat. I thin the prospect of the Dems taking the House is 50%.
wake me up when all of that happens because right now, we have the lowest real wages in 40 years, dropping labor participation rate (artificially goosing the unemployment numbers, not actually creating more jobs), tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy with a temporary cut for some but not all of the middle, no peace, increased civilian casualties in the battle with ISIS, Trump being deluded by North Korea who has done absolutely nothing to reduce their nuclear capabilities, and we are becoming Putin's puppet, not their ally, while also destroying decades old relationships with actual allies.
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Old 08-12-2018, 10:01 AM
 
Location: Washington State
18,189 posts, read 9,435,921 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74 View Post
wake me up when all of that happens because right now, we have the lowest real wages in 40 years, dropping labor participation rate (artificially goosing the unemployment numbers, not actually creating more jobs), tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy with a temporary cut for some but not all of the middle, no peace, increased civilian casualties in the battle with ISIS, Trump being deluded by North Korea who has done absolutely nothing to reduce their nuclear capabilities, and we are becoming Putin's puppet, not their ally, while also destroying decades old relationships with actual allies.
Wake up...everything wonderful has happened and it's continuing. Okay you are right that the crybabies that lost the last election are still crying and refusing to accept the results of the election.
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