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Old 04-08-2018, 10:45 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,046 posts, read 15,508,400 times
Reputation: 3960

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The next special election is being held in just over two weeks. This is in the seat that was held by Republican Trent Franks who resigned amid sexual harassment and misconduct allegations. State Senator Debbie Lesko won the GOP nomination and Doctor Hiral Tipirneni won the Democratic nomination.

The district is traditionally very Republican and will be a tough one for the Democrats to win. It is primarily a suburban and exurban district northwest of Phoenix. The district has a lot of transplants and many retirees. The margin was similar to PA-18, Trump won it by 21 and actually trended against Trump, but only marginally so. However, unlike PA-18 the district doesn't have some of the traditionally Democratic areas, and is not as well educated. A big key to Lamb's victory was running up the score in the well educated inner suburbs of Allegheny. While some of that does exist in the district, it just isn't as many and education levels have been a big key in the traditionally Republican suburban districts the Democrats have made up the most ground in.

This Special Election has largely gone under the radar and will likely remain in Republican hands, it will however be interesting to see what transpires over the next two weeks. Fundraising #'s are due by the end of the week.
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Old 04-08-2018, 11:45 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
29,370 posts, read 39,821,092 times
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Someone is bankrolling Lesko as her ads are on TV here quite a bit. Lesko is playing a moderate who will work in a bipartisan fashion (not likely). The other candidate goes by her first name in her advertising and there is not much of it in comparison. This district includes the Sun Cities (Lesko was a prime mover behind a law letting them drive golf carts on public roads) and a Dem has a snowball's chance in hell of winning it.
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Old 04-09-2018, 06:10 AM
Status: "Trump: Inept, Incompetent, Insecure" (set 14 days ago)
 
10,527 posts, read 6,218,867 times
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Not much written about this special election, I suppose since an 'upset' is very unlikely. I did find this opinion article on CNN:


https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/05/polit...ona/index.html


Of course, while many political analysts expect the Democrats to pick up seats in the House, perhaps enough to regain control, no rational person is predicting that the Blue Wave will engulf ALL House seats. There are plenty of 'safe' Republican seats, and this is one of them.


From what I have read, there is nothing scandalous about Mr. Lesko, so she should win quite easily.


Indeed, this article, below, notes that as a state legislature in 2014, she championed the ability of people to drive golf carts along the side of the road, which bill was passed, that was very popular with the retirement community:


Who is Debbie Lesko? What to know about the Arizona congressional candidate | Fox News


She even took part in a 100 golf cart parade (presumably, along the side of the road) to celebrate. Heck, if I lived in her district, I would vote for her myself, based on this one item.
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Old 04-09-2018, 08:11 AM
Status: "Trump: Inept, Incompetent, Insecure" (set 14 days ago)
 
10,527 posts, read 6,218,867 times
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After I posted the above, I was thinking to myself "Elderly people driving golf carts along highways and roads; what could go wrong?"


I did a quick Google of 'golf cart accidents Arizona'. Where there is no specific link to provide (of a report saying such accidents have increased since 2014), it can certainly be implied by the number of results. Of course, only those accidents that result in loss of life or serious injury would be reported by the Arizona newspapers, or so I presume.


Indeed, I was surprised at the number of Arizona attorneys advertising that they specialize in golf cart accidents. Not only are the drivers of golf carts in accidents, but they have run over several people.


I am not saying that the law is 'bad'. But it is food for thought.
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Old 04-15-2018, 09:07 PM
 
4,069 posts, read 1,565,188 times
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Lesko has my vote
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Old 04-16-2018, 12:22 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
9,013 posts, read 2,751,946 times
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Well this is interesting. This particular poll is an outlier, but still ...

Arizona special election in dead heat: poll
Quote:
The special election for an Arizona House seat is in a statistical dead heat in the final week of the race, according to a poll released on Monday.

A poll from Emerson College found physician Hiral Tipirneni (D) narrowly leading with 46 percent, compared to former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R), who is at 45 percent — well within the poll’s margin of error.
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Old 04-16-2018, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Long Island
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I'm hearing it will definitely go to the R's even though the Dems have a good candidate. I heard the Republican candidate furiously back pedaling from her pride on Bannon's endorsement once he became persona non grata at the WH. Would love to see the D's get in there.
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Old 04-16-2018, 04:43 PM
 
Location: Downtown Phoenix, AZ
18,927 posts, read 6,907,157 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Well this is interesting. This particular poll is an outlier, but still ...

Arizona special election in dead heat: poll
I'm familiar with the district, and sadly, I think Lesko is a shoe-in simply because she has an R next to her name
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Old 04-16-2018, 06:25 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,046 posts, read 15,508,400 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Well this is interesting. This particular poll is an outlier, but still ...

Arizona special election in dead heat: poll
This is one to watch and could be an upset, but Lesko is still the favorite. My guess is somewhere around 5 points, pretty much in between the two recent polls. District is primarily suburban and the Democrats have picked up a ton of ground in many suburban areas, but the district skews a bit older and less college educated than the bulk of the areas they have picked up ground in
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Old 04-17-2018, 12:28 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,572 posts, read 753,005 times
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Maybe after the PA-18 special election resulted in a Democrat winning, the White House has decided against showing up to hold a rally in AZ-08. Or maybe Arizona is a bit too far from Washington DC or Palm Beach for the president to conveniently fly in and get back to his safe spaces the same day. Too bad for the esteemed Senate candidate in AZ whom he pardoned, who could have taken advantage of the exposure from such a rally as well.
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