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Old 04-11-2018, 03:44 PM
 
6,940 posts, read 2,475,526 times
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79 current Republican seats
16 current Democratic seats

Total of 95 competitive seats

https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...e-race-ratings

Paul Ryan’s seat is the latest to be added. Virtually all of the low hanging fruit is currently in Republican hands.
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Old 04-11-2018, 04:45 PM
 
5,116 posts, read 4,606,978 times
Reputation: 4375
Hmmm....

179 solid seats in for the Democratic Party
13 likely/lean likely for the Dems
192 lean likely or better for the Dems

161 solid seats for the Republican Party
50 likely/lean likely for the Reps
211 lean likely or better for the Reps

218 seats needed for a majority in the US House.

Reps are defending 29 seats that are "toss up or worse" but are only 7 more seats away from maintaining their majority.

I really want to know what makes a race for a House seat worse than a toss-up? Does that mean it's a likely flip?
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Old 04-11-2018, 06:42 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,977 posts, read 15,432,602 times
Reputation: 3946
Quote:
Originally Posted by djmilf View Post
Hmmm....

179 solid seats in for the Democratic Party
13 likely/lean likely for the Dems
192 lean likely or better for the Dems

161 solid seats for the Republican Party
50 likely/lean likely for the Reps
211 lean likely or better for the Reps

218 seats needed for a majority in the US House.

Reps are defending 29 seats that are "toss up or worse" but are only 7 more seats away from maintaining their majority.

I really want to know what makes a race for a House seat worse than a toss-up? Does that mean it's a likely flip?
Yes, those listed as worse than tossup are seats held by one party that are rated as lean or likely for the other party.
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Old 04-12-2018, 06:52 AM
 
3,339 posts, read 4,308,059 times
Reputation: 2204
Quote:
Originally Posted by djmilf View Post
Hmmm....
I really want to know what makes a race for a House seat worse than a toss-up? Does that mean it's a likely flip?
Yes. If they are seats you currently hold, a toss up means you could lose it. 'Worse' means the other party is currently favored.
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Old 04-12-2018, 10:31 PM
 
77,996 posts, read 33,265,332 times
Reputation: 15592
The research is lazy. WV-3 is NOT likely (R). They never bothered to research the race.
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Old 04-13-2018, 11:34 AM
 
3,339 posts, read 4,308,059 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp View Post
The research is lazy. WV-3 is NOT likely (R). They never bothered to research the race.
A 23% Republican lean to a district is pretty likely to go R. Especially when you consider WV and many southern states still have older voters registered D who are more likely to vote R in current races.
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Old 04-14-2018, 11:13 AM
 
29,965 posts, read 47,156,619 times
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And where the gerrymandering done by prior legislatures is still in force
The courts won't be able to undo all the gerrymandering the GOP was able to put in place
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Old 04-14-2018, 02:14 PM
 
7,249 posts, read 5,562,499 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrpeatie View Post
A 23% Republican lean to a district is pretty likely to go R. Especially when you consider WV and many southern states still have older voters registered D who are more likely to vote R in current races.
True, but the current guy is out and Ojeda is pretty well-known. I wouldn't be surprised to see it flip, especially if miners are mad that Trump didn't magically bring back all the jobs that have disappeared.
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Old 04-14-2018, 08:09 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
13,465 posts, read 8,479,915 times
Reputation: 19576
Why the fascination with house control?
With a Trump presidency it won't make any difference, other than bragging rights.
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Old 04-14-2018, 08:27 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,977 posts, read 15,432,602 times
Reputation: 3946
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
Why the fascination with house control?
With a Trump presidency it won't make any difference, other than bragging rights.
Care to explain how it doesn't make a difference....
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