Latest Cook Political Report On “Competitive” House Seats (voters, democratic, Republican)

[Bureaucat]

79 current Republican seats
16 current Democratic seats

Total of 95 competitive seats

https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...e-race-ratings

Paul Ryan’s seat is the latest to be added. Virtually all of the low hanging fruit is currently in Republican hands.

[djmilf]

Hmmm....

179 solid seats in for the Democratic Party
13 likely/lean likely for the Dems
192 lean likely or better for the Dems

161 solid seats for the Republican Party
50 likely/lean likely for the Reps
211 lean likely or better for the Reps

218 seats needed for a majority in the US House.

Reps are defending 29 seats that are "toss up or worse" but are only 7 more seats away from maintaining their majority.

I really want to know what makes a race for a House seat worse than a toss-up? Does that mean it's a likely flip?

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by djmilf

Hmmm....

179 solid seats in for the Democratic Party
13 likely/lean likely for the Dems
192 lean likely or better for the Dems

161 solid seats for the Republican Party
50 likely/lean likely for the Reps
211 lean likely or better for the Reps

218 seats needed for a majority in the US House.

Reps are defending 29 seats that are "toss up or worse" but are only 7 more seats away from maintaining their majority.

I really want to know what makes a race for a House seat worse than a toss-up? Does that mean it's a likely flip?

Yes, those listed as worse than tossup are seats held by one party that are rated as lean or likely for the other party.

[mrpeatie]

Originally Posted by djmilf

Hmmm....
I really want to know what makes a race for a House seat worse than a toss-up? Does that mean it's a likely flip?

Yes. If they are seats you currently hold, a toss up means you could lose it. 'Worse' means the other party is currently favored.

[pknopp]

The research is lazy. WV-3 is NOT likely (R). They never bothered to research the race.

[mrpeatie]

Originally Posted by pknopp

The research is lazy. WV-3 is NOT likely (R). They never bothered to research the race.

A 23% Republican lean to a district is pretty likely to go R. Especially when you consider WV and many southern states still have older voters registered D who are more likely to vote R in current races.

[loves2read]

And where the gerrymandering done by prior legislatures is still in force
The courts won't be able to undo all the gerrymandering the GOP was able to put in place

Originally Posted by mrpeatie

A 23% Republican lean to a district is pretty likely to go R. Especially when you consider WV and many southern states still have older voters registered D who are more likely to vote R in current races.

True, but the current guy is out and Ojeda is pretty well-known. I wouldn't be surprised to see it flip, especially if miners are mad that Trump didn't magically bring back all the jobs that have disappeared.

[Listener2307]

Why the fascination with house control?
With a Trump presidency it won't make any difference, other than bragging rights.

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by Listener2307

Why the fascination with house control?
With a Trump presidency it won't make any difference, other than bragging rights.

Care to explain how it doesn't make a difference....