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Trump is as popular with his base as he has ever been but has lost most of his support outside of that. By this, I am talking about people who never were fully on the Trump train, but may have held their nose and voted for him because they didn't want Hillary.
Of course we know that Trump's #MAGA base is going to be out in force to vote for his re-election in 2020. Meanwhile, Dems will likely be more energized than they were in 2016. It seems that Trump supporters are counting on Democrats to nominate a buffoon of a candidate like Maxine Waters, Elizabeth Warren, or Oprah, resulting in another 2016 scenario where people once again hold their nose and vote for Trump. For the purposes of this thread, lets assume that doesn't happen and that the Democrats actually do nominate a competent candidate.
So the question is, can Trump win with only has white, rural, blue collar base? Will the #MAGA vote be enough to overpower the likely turnout of people who will be out in force to vote against Trump?
Neither Trump nor his eventual Democratic opponent can win with their base voters alone. They will both have to get their base motivated to turn out, but also get a sufficient number of less partisan voters to see them as better than the alternative. Clinton fell short in both respects in most of the swing states in 2016, but who knows if the 2020 nominee will do so as well.
I don't think the Democratic nominee will be any of the three "buffoon" names you've posted. My guess is the party will nominate a senator or governor, but probably someone who isn't quite as well known at this point.
You seem to be looking for predictions
Ok I will take the bait
America Will follow the French model
Sarkozy, the right, was ousted and the left came back with double force aka massive uncontrolled immigration, heavy softening of justice system to adjust for spike in crime and giant spike in welfare
Not very likely. Both parties need support from Independents to win, but especially Republicans because nationally they are a smaller group than both Independents and Democrats.
If you only have one data point to focus on, check on Trump’s support from Independent voters. According to the 2016 Exit Polls, Trump carried Independent voters nationally by 4 points; 46% to 42%.
Here’s how Trump did with Independents in key states in 2016, as per the state Exit Polls.
Florida (Trump carried the state by 113,000)
Trump 47%
Clinton 43%
Iowa (Trump won by 147,000)
Trump 51%
Clinton 38%
Michigan (Trump won by 11,000)
Trump 52%
Clinton 36%
Minnesota (Clinton won by 47,000)
Trump 44%
Clinton 42%
New Hampshire (Clinton won by 2,800)
Trump 45%
Clinton 45%
Ohio (Trump won by 450,000)
Trump 51%
Clinton 37%
Pennsylvania (Trump won by 44,000)
Trump 48%
Clinton 41%
Wisconsin (Trump won by 23,000)
Trump 50%
Clinton 40%
We still have a LONG time before the 2020 election, but Trump is underwater nationally with Independents in job approval in virtually every poll nationally. How the Independent vote breaks in key states will likely tell the tale in 2020.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 04-12-2018 at 02:19 PM..
Well you said it best with CANDIDATES MATTER. I truly hope Elizabeth Warren is a red herring with Trump making dumb statements only for a bait and switch by the Dems with a solid candidate. As I stated in another post Dem have to talk to the people from the purple, trending purple/dem and not as conservative as 10 years ago areas if they plan on bumping off Trump in 2020. Backing a candidate from blue as the sky MA or from other safe liberal areas i.e. campaigning for the house in the vision of Nancy Pelosi from a D + 34 district instead of Connor Lamb from a R +10 district will snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
If the Democrats do that then I don't see Trump winning as he has very little room for error in the first place and most of his base is concentrated in a few pockets in the US not enough for an electoral college (the vote that counts) victory, but in politics a week is a long time, a year is a decade and presidential term is a lifetime. people wrote off so many past presidents based on a so-so first half term and bad midterm. those people that wrote off the incumbent...boy did they look foolish when the president got reelected (Reagan, Eisenhower, Truman, Obama, Clinton) The best bet for Dems is not to go to the obvious
look at it this way:
Midterms of 1950 nobody expected a centrist-war hero with no political experience to become president but it happened in 1952
midterms 1958 nobody expected a barley over 40 year old senator becoming president in 1960 but it happened
midterms 1966 nobody expected a failed presidential candidate then failed governor candidate becoming president in 1968 but it happened.
midterms 1974 nobody saw a quiet peanut farmer with not as much national recognition winning a large primary and becoming president in 1976 but it happened.
midterms 1990 nobody saw a hillbilly who gave a rambling and subsequentially booed speech at the 1988 DNC becoming president in 1992 but it happened
midterms 2006 nobody saw a black senator with a funny sounding name beating the Clinton machine and becoming president in 2008 but it happened
midterms 2014 nobody saw a democrat turned republican tv star with multiple bankruptcies, affairs and lawsuits becoming president in 2016 but it happened
Bob Dole, Hillary Clinton, John McCain Mitt Romney, LBJ (1960) where all the Heirs to their respective parties nominations and figured they were the "best shot" to reclaim the white house, they all failed (although LBJ was picked as VP and was elevated and eventually elected outright)
Nah, the cult is well indoctrinated. Remember after he signed that obscene spending bill, and many here on C-D were claiming that was it, they were finished with him? Most of them are right back on board already, his lies and betrayals all forgotten. He could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and they wouldn't leave him.
But I believe all the independents who took a chance on him are long gone, never to return. And he can't win without them.
It doesn’t depend on who the Dems run as well eh?
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