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Incumbents have a built in advantage. If Trump's antics are normalized, independents might continue to support him. Big news events of 2017 and 2018 will be long forgotten by Nov 2020.
I voted for Trump because I hated Hillary. I never agreed with his adoration for all things Israel, and some of the stuff that comes out of his mouth makes me cringe. He's acting like a war hawk now. At some point he sounded like he didn't want to get into war, and that was good to hear. However, I feel that NONE of the candidates would be able to keep Israel under control. Hillary would be a worse war hawk than Trump. Israel has way too much influence over our lives. We pay them huge amounts of money, and they are trying to suck us into another unwinnable war.
Trump peed his pants over the so called chemical attack involving (knee jerk reaction buzzword) "Kids" ,and said BUPKIS about the massacre of Palestinians during a peaceful protest. Would I vote for him again ? Yes, but only if he concentrates on the USA, and our people. If he and his chums get us into another war, I just won't vote any more. We are screwed as a nation if we don't stop trying to rule the whole world with Israel. They are not our friends, nor are they a Democracy.
Interesting rant on the USA and Israel. More interesting is the choice of a Yiddish word.
No. He needs the frustrated and angry independents who voted for Trump as a protest against Clinton - or just to shake things up to see what happened.
Trump has lost those voters. They are turned off. They realize he really IS a reckless racist. They think he's a buffoon. They have come to their senses, so to speak.
The Democrats need to run someone who is...hmmm...NOT Hilary Clinton? That would be a good start.
Democrats need to nominate a white male that is not bombastic. Save the speeches, a woman can't win since even women don't support them. Trump ran as a birther, so while Obama was awesome, Trump supporters loved Trump's racism.
Sadly - Democrats probably need to nominate the thing that doesn't upset flyover country - a while male. He doesn't need to be a good husband, he doesn't need to be honest, he can even brag about grabbing women, but he needs to be a while male. That in itself would weaken Trump's base.
Democrats need to nominate a white male that is not bombastic. Save the speeches, a woman can't win since even women don't support them. Trump ran as a birther, so while Obama was awesome, Trump supporters loved Trump's racism.
Sadly - Democrats probably need to nominate the thing that doesn't upset flyover country - a while male. He doesn't need to be a good husband, he doesn't need to be honest, he can even brag about grabbing women, but he needs to be a while male. That in itself would weaken Trump's base.
Michigan (Trump won by 11,000) Pennsylvania (Trump won by 44,000) Wisconsin (Trump won by 23,000)
(edited for brevity)
Many people don't understand how Trump's election was a fluke. He got three 7's on the slot machine and won the jackpot. He lost the popular vote by 3 million and barely won the above three states by razor-thin margins. The statistical odds against pulling off such a feat again in 2020 are stacked against him.
His "cater to the base" strategy is puzzling. If he wanted to increase his reelection chances he should be moving to the center to capture those independents you were referring to.
Trump is as popular with his base as he has ever been but has lost most of his support outside of that. By this, I am talking about people who never were fully on the Trump train, but may have held their nose and voted for him because they didn't want Hillary.
Of course we know that Trump's #MAGA base is going to be out in force to vote for his re-election in 2020. Meanwhile, Dems will likely be more energized than they were in 2016. It seems that Trump supporters are counting on Democrats to nominate a buffoon of a candidate like Maxine Waters, Elizabeth Warren, or Oprah, resulting in another 2016 scenario where people once again hold their nose and vote for Trump. For the purposes of this thread, lets assume that doesn't happen and that the Democrats actually do nominate a competent candidate.
So the question is, can Trump win with only has white, rural, blue collar base? Will the #MAGA vote be enough to overpower the likely turnout of people who will be out in force to vote against Trump?
If Trump's meeting with Kim results in a solution to North Korea, I think it will be impossible for Trump to lose 2020.
Plus the economy is a masterpiece, if anyone cares.
All-time low unemployment rates for African-Americans and Hispanics.
19 year low for females.
GDP growth projected to be big.
Democrats need to nominate a white male that is not bombastic. Save the speeches, a woman can't win since even women don't support them. Trump ran as a birther, so while Obama was awesome, Trump supporters loved Trump's racism.
Sadly - Democrats probably need to nominate the thing that doesn't upset flyover country - a while male. He doesn't need to be a good husband, he doesn't need to be honest, he can even brag about grabbing women, but he needs to be a while male. That in itself would weaken Trump's base.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JRR
Sherrod Brown or Chris Murphy?
Sherrod Brown is my first choice actually and I'm a new Yorker. A progressive yet not overly left from a swingy area who can "talk to the people" and actually has blue-collar roots
The Trump supporters who love his racism will support Trump even if you resurrect the Racist democrats from 150 years ago because he has an "R" next to his name.
Remember even at their lowest Bush, Nixon Carter all had approval ratings in the mid to high 20's which is basically saying 3/4 give or take of the party base stuck by them blindly. Even when the rest of the country was done with them.
I do not think it must be a white-male to win but in the same respect the democrats are too concerned with a "trophy candidate" too consumed that they MUST nominated a woman, minority either race or religious minority and "white male" is a semi-dirty word.
Let me put it this way contrary to popular belief Obama did not get the nomination in 2008 because he was black...yes i am sure that had a minor factor, but Obama won because he connected with the voters while Hillary waltzed around like it was owed to her (lets not even start with Hillary was just unlikable and strong armed the party to handing her the nod in 2016)
How the candidate connects with the voters..ALL voters should be priority number 1. People want to vote for a candidate because they feel he/she is the best choice, not a crammed down their throat story like hearing the same song over and over on the radio, eventually people sour on it. If the Democrats keep playing the our nominee MUST be a woman, minority basically anything except a white male and we will do our best to stop any white male from getting the nod then it will be like hearing the same song over and over again it will cause a backlash.
Sherrod Brown is my first choice actually and I'm a new Yorker. A progressive yet not overly left from a swingy area who can "talk to the people" and actually has blue-collar roots
The Trump supporters who love his racism will support Trump even if you resurrect the Racist democrats from 150 years ago because he has an "R" next to his name.
Remember even at their lowest Bush, Nixon Carter all had approval ratings in the mid to high 20's which is basically saying 3/4 give or take of the party base stuck by them blindly. Even when the rest of the country was done with them.
I do not think it must be a white-male to win but in the same respect the democrats are too concerned with a "trophy candidate" too consumed that they MUST nominated a woman, minority either race or religious minority and "white male" is a semi-dirty word.
Let me put it this way contrary to popular belief Obama did not get the nomination in 2008 because he was black...yes i am sure that had a minor factor, but Obama won because he connected with the voters while Hillary waltzed around like it was owed to her (lets not even start with Hillary was just unlikable and strong armed the party to handing her the nod in 2016)
How the candidate connects with the voters..ALL voters should be priority number 1. People want to vote for a candidate because they feel he/she is the best choice, not a crammed down their throat story like hearing the same song over and over on the radio, eventually people sour on it. If the Democrats keep playing the our nominee MUST be a woman, minority basically anything except a white male and we will do our best to stop any white male from getting the nod then it will be like hearing the same song over and over again it will cause a backlash.
As a Democrat, I accept that there will not be a female president in our lifetimes. Even though there are more women in this country than men, there has never been a female president in over 200 years. But to suggest that a women be elected is immediately framed as being "anti-male" or "anti-white male"? How can that be true when every single president in the entire history of this country has been male, whether Democratic or Republican?
Any women will be framed negatively and so will the party that nominates her. And Republicans can say they support a female president but they will never actually nominate and elect one. Talk is cheap.
Trump's base loves the way Trump has openly cheated on his wives and bragged about grabbing women. They think it makes him seem more virile. They don't mind the porn star stories at all. We need this generation to pass before a woman is again considered viable, it wouldn't matter how accomplished she is.
Sherrod Brown? Sure, fine. Just make it a white male that is less offensive than Trump. That includes most white males.
If Trump's meeting with Kim results in a solution to North Korea, I think it will be impossible for Trump to lose 2020.
Plus the economy is a masterpiece, if anyone cares.
All-time low unemployment rates for African-Americans and Hispanics.
19 year low for females.
GDP growth projected to be big.
North Korea could make or break him you are right about that.
Contrary to GOP belief Trump has been riding a good economy since he came into office. Obama had 75 straight months of job growth and he inherited an economy in meltdown.
The dow was under 8000 when Obama took office and just over 13000 the day he got relected and was just under 20,000 when Trump took office.
Fair or not the presidents first year he is working with the budget of his predecessor.
I'll make it simple.
The economy does not exist in a vacuum just under 8000 to just over 13000 is a huge improvement.
Yes the market is high now but there is a fear of a trade war, if it drops to levels when Trump took office on election day 2 1/2 years from now (a lifetime in politics) it may not help.
I doubt he would get the Democratic nomination, but the governor of Montana, Steve Bullock may be someone worth watching. He has managed to get elected in a red state twice and comes across as a levelheaded problem solver who has worked well with a Republican legislature. Bullock doesn't seem to have any particular controversies that I'm aware of and would likely be much more appealing to moderate and even some Republican voters in the general election.
However with the primary system, it is more likely that a relatively liberal Democrat will be nominated. I don't think the party has to choose a white male, but any successful candidate needs to be able to connect with a sufficient share of Americans of all backgrounds, including some white males outside of the most liberal states. Obama succeeded in doing so twice, while Hillary Clinton fell short, but other women could absolutely do better. Spend less time fundraising in California and New York, and more time meeting with swing voters in purple states and understanding what they consider most important.
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