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View Poll Results: Will Trump be primaried in 2020?
I support Trump and don't think he will be primaried 18 25.00%
I support Trump and think he will be primaried 12 16.67%
I do not support Trump and don't think he will be primaried 12 16.67%
I do not support Trump and think he will be primaried 25 34.72%
Other 5 6.94%
Voters: 72. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-07-2018, 10:46 AM
 
Location: The middle of nowhere
8,805 posts, read 4,052,079 times
Reputation: 7531

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No. He's too popular with his base. Trump has to lose popularity with Republicans for a primary challenger to be viable. As of May 2018, Trump is one of the most popular Presidents in US history among members of his own party. Unless something drastically changes between now and the 2020 election cycle, which is unlikely, any challenger that even dares to try to take on Trump will be DOA. The only way Trump isn't the nominee in 2020 is if he decides not to run.
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Old 05-07-2018, 11:36 AM
 
Location: Northern NJ/Amagansett, NY
10,821 posts, read 10,149,494 times
Reputation: 7647
Quote:
Originally Posted by natalie469 View Post
I hope hes nominated again because he wont win.
Where have I heard that before?
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Old 05-07-2018, 10:09 PM
 
21,350 posts, read 11,547,654 times
Reputation: 12177
Quote:
Originally Posted by natalie469 View Post
I hope hes nominated again because he wont win.
Just like 16 right?
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Old 05-07-2018, 10:27 PM
 
20,616 posts, read 8,783,752 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PullMyFinger View Post
Just like 16 right?
Not at all the same. We now know what he is like as president. So he will lose
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Old 05-08-2018, 07:15 AM
 
2,963 posts, read 3,046,342 times
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I don't think he'll necessarily have a legitimate challenger in the primary. Keep in mind that the only politicians that are going against Trump are the ones not facing re-election. That speaks volumes about how Trump likely won't see any true primary challenger.

Who is speaking out (this is not a complete list mind you):
  • Bob Corker (resigning)
  • Jeff Flake (resigning)
  • Charlie Dent (resigning)
  • John Kasich (term-limited)
  • John McCain (likely dying...)
  • Lindsey Graham (seat not up until 2020)
  • John Thune (seat not up until 2022)
Point is, there aren't many politicians sticking out their neck with anything to lose. They've all been towing the Trump party line since Jan 20 2017. I think this further reinforces a low chance of seeing a primary opponent.

Personally, I don't think Mueller will tie the dots sufficiently close enough to Trump. Similar to how the Clinton email investigation said that she was "grossly negligent," we won't see much more than a sharp rebuke about Trump. He'll come out smelling like roses.

And while Democrats might be patting themselves on the back for Nov 2018 before a single vote is cast, they should temper their expectations a bit. Even if they do take back the House, the optimism about 2020 is really premature. See who the nominee is before getting excited about the prospect. They'd have a better shot of a random person with a paper bag over their head running against Trump than an actual Democrat politician.

For the record, I commonly have voted Democrat since 2008 - so this isn't just an optimistic Republican's point of view or anything.
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Old 05-08-2018, 06:46 PM
 
Location: Ohio
19,772 posts, read 14,178,516 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74 View Post
It would be an interesting exercise to see how many people support Trump personally vs. how many support him solely because he was the GOP candidate.
Many people voted against Hillary rather than voted for Trump, and it had nothing to do with being a woman, but it did have something to do with Hillary being Hillary and a Clinton.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
I doubt if hell have more than token opposition, but I guess its possible if the GOP has a disastrous result in November.
I don't think the mid-term Elections will matter. I think Kasich is gearing up for a run, regardless of mid-term Elections.

Economics is probably the greatest consideration.

Currently, the economy is tied for second as the longest economic expansion in US history, and will become the 2nd longest expansion in June.

The longest economic expansion in US history is 120 months, and that mark would be tied in July 2019 and broken in August 2019, if the economy continues to expand.

Statistically speaking, the odds for a recession increase with each passing month.

Granted, the economy is not constrained by statistics and especially not by past peformace, but I find it highly unlikely that economic expansion would continue through November 2020.

That would require an unprecedented economic expansion of 136 months, a full 16 months -- nearly a year and a half -- beyond the record of 120 months.

The Federal Reserve's planned rate increases, and Powell has stated there will be at least three more rate increases, will increase the cost of borrowing, which increases the cost of expansion. In that case, expansion will continue until companies can no longer bear the costs, and that's when a recession would occur.

A recession in 2020 would be disastrous for the GOP.

The US Media, being the propaganda and disinformation machine that it is, would down-play or outright ignore such an historic unprecedented event as though it never happened, and lay blame on Trump's policies, regardless if it was in fact true or not.

In that case, the Democrats will win hands down.

if the recession occurs earlier, in 2019, that might actually draw out GOP candidates who would unashamedly seize on the opportunity to bash Trump's policies in order to gain the nomination.

We're not in recession now, and even if the economy entered a recession in the 3rd Quarter, it wouldn't be known until after the mid-term Election, and a 4th Quarter recession would have no bearing on the mid-term Election, but it might also draw out GOP candidates to challenge Trump.

In any event, it would be better for the GOP to have a recession soon, muddle through it, and then get on with business, instead of having to deal with it later.
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Old 05-08-2018, 09:35 PM
 
Location: Fredericktown,Ohio
6,916 posts, read 4,406,978 times
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IMO Kasich is running but not sure what {R} strategy would look like. Does the party think with enough $ support and endorsements it can carry Kasich to victory? Or will it be another attempt to divide the vote with numerous candidates hoping one of them will win enough delegates to beat Trump. If it is the later I see Paul and Cruz running and IMO Trump holds on.
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Old 05-08-2018, 09:55 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
13,527 posts, read 8,509,996 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by natalie469 View Post
I hope hes nominated again because he wont win.
But you've never been right yet.
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Old 05-08-2018, 10:38 PM
 
18,070 posts, read 11,078,259 times
Reputation: 9419
I think the Trump worship is such that flyover country will not tolerate anyone but Trump. They are in so deep that there is nothing Trump can do that they won't find a way to rationalize. This time, I hope Democrats don't run a woman or a minority, just a white guy good at mocking Trump. I wonder if Michael Avenatti is available. Now that would be entertaining.
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Old 05-08-2018, 10:51 PM
 
Location: The middle of nowhere
8,805 posts, read 4,052,079 times
Reputation: 7531
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seacove View Post
I think the Trump worship is such that flyover country will not tolerate anyone but Trump. They are in so deep that there is nothing Trump can do that they won't find a way to rationalize. This time, I hope Democrats don't run a woman or a minority, just a white guy good at mocking Trump. I wonder if Michael Avenatti is available. Now that would be entertaining.
As somebody who lives in one of the most pro-Trump places in the US, I agree with this. I think Trump's joke that he could shoot somebody on 5th avenue and not lose his supporters is literally true. I also don't think it matters who the Democrats nominate. People currently saying MAGA will vote for Trump no matter what. They won't vote for a Democrat under any circumstance. Likewise there probably aren't many people left still on the fence about Trump. Most who aren't currently all in probably won't be voting for him in 2020.

What the Democrats need to do is energize their base. They need a candidate without the baggage or likability issues Hillary had who can draw out the center-left and left to actually vote. They need somebody charismatic who can speak to the people. If the Democrats nominate somebody like that, they will win.
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