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I wouldn't put much stock into a poll from a PAC, with that said the same is true for a campaign internal poll, and the release of a 1 point up poll in a campaign internal is typically a sign of them being down.
With that said. McCaskill is likely up at this point, but it is close and she isn't safe. Hawley isn't helped by the Governor's situation, and the way his office handled it, but unless something comes out that his office knew something sooner he probably escapes any lasting damage from it. Barring that or an Akin type moment this race likely remains close all thee way through.
Yea McCaskill is likely up a few points, Hawley's internal poll was before the whole Gov. mess came to a head. She isn't up 6 more like 3/4 at this point. The biggest issue is she has a significant cash advantage with five times as much cash on hand as GOP nominee Josh Hawley — $11.5 million to $2.1 million. Reportably she has bought an option for up to 80% of all available ad space radio/tv this fall in the St. Louis market.
Montana Senate - Rosendale vs. Tester Gravis Tester 52, Rosendale 44 Tester +8
North Dakota Senate - Cramer vs. Heitkamp Mason-Dixon Cramer 48, Heitkamp 44 Cramer +4
Tester I think is out of the danger zone, he has a huge war chest & is well liked in the state. I don't see Rosendale knocking him off.
Heitkamp is in a real dog fight, I looked the poll over & didn't like the make up much & how they drew people from around the state, it was divided into 4 parts the distribution were not the same as the population in the area. The poll aside her being down is going to draw a lot of outside money as the republican really only have 3 pickup chances in Indiana/Florida/ND. The only plus for her here is she has been in two statewide elections before & has a lot of experience.
So Hawley wins 51.5-45.5, a pretty solid win for a non-incumbent. I thought McCaskill should have voted to confirm Kavanaugh, but it probably would not have made up 5 points, so it's moot.
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