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I can't help but think that he's going to win again
Trumpism is alive and well
He could win, but unless he broadens his base by winning greater support among white college grads and minorities of all stripes, the mathematical probability of such a coalition continuing to win lessens with each year due to demographics. The percentages he won his core groups by in 2016 won’t be enough to win in 2020. He’ll have to win them by even more in 2020 or broaden his appeal to growing groups.
He could win, but unless he broadens his base by winning greater support among white college grads and minorities of all stripes, the mathematical probability of such a coalition continuing to win lessens with each year due to demographics. The percentages he won his core groups by in 2016 won’t be enough to win in 2020. He’ll have to win them by even more in 2020 or broaden his appeal to growing groups.
However, demographics in important swing states might not change at the same rate. That happened in the past election. WI, MI, OH and possibly PA didn't mirror the average demographic change that was occurring in the country(as a whole).
Those individual demographic shifts need to be split out by state. Because popular vote doesn't win elections.
I can't tell if that link calculated the expected change, by state, based on the current state's demographic AND that state's expected individual demographic shift. If they only added the national average of demographic shift, then the numbers might be off.
Disclaimer: I didn't read every page of the link. Maybe I missed something.
Last edited by sware2cod; 05-18-2018 at 01:34 PM..
He could win, but unless he broadens his base by winning greater support among white college grads and minorities of all stripes, the mathematical probability of such a coalition continuing to win lessens with each year due to demographics. The percentages he won his core groups by in 2016 won’t be enough to win in 2020. He’ll have to win them by even more in 2020 or broaden his appeal to growing groups.
As long as he continues to con his brain dead base theres a good chance he may get re-elected.Lock her up Lock her up
Yes, the married couples making more than 50K a year who elected Trump are the brain dead ones. Not the sub-40k single poverty vote that Hillary won. And the results so far are 3% annualized GDP growth, lower taxes, a soon to be denuclearized Korea, 25k dow, ISIS eradicated, Embassy in Jerusalem, companies giving out bonuses and raises, a secure border. People vote how they feel and confidence in the economy and foreign policy is sky high right now. The winning hasn't stopped.
Unless something drastic happens between now and 2020 I have to agree with you but the age factor is still there and he may tire before the 2020 election season gets underway. We know he does what he wants and does he want another term? None of us know that at this time. We are talking about a year before the 2020 campaign season even gets underway.
Unless you mean mentally, that would be less likely if he lost weight and got more (or some might say some ) exercise.
{shrug} all the experts predicted Hillary in a land slide. Core groups/demographics/coalitions/etc.... Pfft
I really don't care if Trump wins or loses or just bows out. But any data collected today will be meaningless in 2020.
You either didn’t read or don’t understand the ramifications of the data.
1. The composition of eligible voters in every state for 2020 through 2036 was calculated. That’s only 18 years. Those future voters have already been born. You get a window into the racial makeup of future eligible voters by looking at the children. Educational attainment can be projected.
2. The GOP remains overly dependent on white, non-college grad, voters, who as a group are losing 2%-3% of their total of eligible voters nationally every four year POTUS cycle due to death because they’re a disproportionately older group. The rates vary, but the percentage of eligible voters that these voters represent is falling in every state.
3. Since the GOP is overly dependent on a fading demographic, unless they increase their support among growing groups (college whites and majorities), just matching what they did in previous elections won’t be good enough; they’ll have to continually win white non-college by a higher percentage or get a higher turnout just to match what they did in the last election because those voters make up less and less of total eligible voters.
4. These are simulations, not predictions of future elections, but their projections on future eligible voters by state are based on solid math, and all scenarios tested are based upon that.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 05-19-2018 at 07:56 AM..
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) exercise.
