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Old 05-19-2018, 07:43 AM
 
6,933 posts, read 2,473,969 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sware2cod View Post
However, demographics in important swing states might not change at the same rate. That happened in the past election. WI, MI, OH and possibly PA didn't mirror the average demographic change that was occurring in the country(as a whole).

Those individual demographic shifts need to be split out by state. Because popular vote doesn't win elections.

I can't tell if that link calculated the expected change, by state, based on the current state's demographic AND that state's expected individual demographic shift. If they only added the national average of demographic shift, then the numbers might be off.
Disclaimer: I didn't read every page of the link. Maybe I missed something.
The data’s calculated state by state. This is the 4th year of the reports. I’m attaching a previous report that calculates the projected date that different states are likely to become minority-majority.

https://www.americanprogress.org/iss...tes-of-change/

Last edited by Bureaucat; 05-19-2018 at 08:03 AM..
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Old 05-19-2018, 07:58 AM
 
36,470 posts, read 15,973,573 times
Reputation: 8282
Quote:
Originally Posted by jambo101 View Post
As long as he continues to con his brain dead base theres a good chance he may get re-elected.Lock her up Lock her up

"As long as he continues to con his brain dead base"


Comments like this and calling us "deplorables" didn't help the dems last time.


What makes you think it will work this time?


Doing the same over and over, do NOT expect different outcomes"
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Old 05-19-2018, 08:02 AM
 
36,470 posts, read 15,973,573 times
Reputation: 8282
Quote:
Originally Posted by don1945 View Post
When I see him go to one of these stupid rallies, I think "What the Hell is he doing spending my (and your) money on this for ? Doesn't this fool realize the election is over !" Can you begin to imagine how much it must cost to fly him there, provide law enforcement protection, the venue, etc, etc.

As for him winning again. First of all, with all the investigations into his corruption, it is pretty slim that he will make it another year. Secondly, we won't be sitting on our hands the next time, like we did this past election.......we never envisioned that enough people were actually dumb enough to vote for this con man, but we won't make that mistake again.

Finally, his "charm" is wearing thin with even his own base, and all the daily dumb things he does have eroded a lot of their confidence in him. To put it mildly, he has been his own worst enemy, and he is getting worse by the hour............no, make that by the minute.

"When I see him go to one of these stupid rallies" "I think "What the Hell is he doing spending my (and your) money on this for ?"


Ah, the HYPOCRISY!


Obam went on campaign rallies, hillary went on campaign rallies and the likes of YOU never COMPLAINED then, so why NOW?


Never mind!
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Old 05-19-2018, 09:01 AM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,534 posts, read 725,110 times
Reputation: 1633
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
You either didn’t read or don’t understand the ramifications of the data.

1. The composition of eligible voters in every state for 2020 through 2036 was calculated. That’s only 18 years. Those future voters have already been born. You get a window into the racial makeup of future eligible voters by looking at the children. Educational attainment can be projected.

2. The GOP remains overly dependent on white, non-college grad, voters, who as a group are losing 2%-3% of their total of eligible voters nationally every four year POTUS cycle due to death because they’re a disproportionately older group. The rates vary, but the percentage of eligible voters that these voters represent is falling in every state.

3. Since the GOP is overly dependent on a fading demographic, unless they increase their support among growing groups (college whites and majorities), just matching what they did in previous elections won’t be good enough; they’ll have to continually win white non-college by a higher percentage or get a higher turnout just to match what they did in the last election because those voters make up less and less of total eligible voters.

4. These are simulations, not predictions of future elections, but their projections on future eligible voters by state are based on solid math, and all scenarios tested are based upon that.
These statements are all true, but there are a huge number of variables that influence people's voting behavior - whether they turn out at all, if they support the Democrat or Republican, or an alternate party candidate.

This pattern of college educated white voters supporting Republicans less than non-college educated white voters is rather Trump-specific, and was evident to a far smaller extent in 2012 and previous elections. Given Trump will most likely be the 2020 Republican nominee, it will probably show up in that year as well but not necessarily in subsequent contests. Most likely the Republican nominee in 2024 and beyond will be from a younger generational cohort than Trump, and will build a somewhat different voter coalition. (For those fans of the president - I strongly doubt that nominee will be one of Trump's kids or Mike Pence ).

Moreover, nonwhite voters are not necessarily going to be a loyal Democratic block as the nation keeps getting more diverse. The lines between many whites and Asian and Hispanic Americans who are well established in the country have become less sharply drawn as many younger people find partners from different racial and ethnic backgrounds with whom they otherwise have much in common. In much of the 20th century, major European nationalities such as Italians were considered more separate from the general "white American" culture than they are today, and a similar evolution could occur with more assimilated Asian and Hispanic groups.

The point is that the Democratic party as a coalition of nonwhites and highly liberal whites would contain a lot of different groups who don't necessarily have common interests in a political sense. Trump with his tendency to shoot off polarizing comments won't be around forever to bring such varied groups of people together in the opposition party. Future Republican nominees could be more like Marco Rubio or Paul Ryan (not likely either of those two individuals specifically), who would probably have more appeal to nonwhite, younger and more educated segments of the electorate. Not to mention that a future Democratic nominee could potentially suit non-college educated white voters even less than Hillary Clinton did. And whether or not its "fair", non-college educated whites are the group that is most optimally distributed for the electoral college - since they are represented more evenly across the country and have above average concentrations in the swing states.
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Old 05-19-2018, 11:50 AM
 
4,791 posts, read 1,790,486 times
Reputation: 4528
I got the exact opposite vibe. Trump is still schilling the same old tripe to the same people. It may have worked once for him to get elected without a plurality but it won't happen again. He has failed to move beyond his base. He is doomed.
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Old 05-19-2018, 12:00 PM
 
39,126 posts, read 20,252,823 times
Reputation: 12691
Quote:
Originally Posted by don1945 View Post
When I see him go to one of these stupid rallies, I think "What the Hell is he doing spending my (and your) money on this for ? Doesn't this fool realize the election is over !" Can you begin to imagine how much it must cost to fly him there, provide law enforcement protection, the venue, etc, etc.

As for him winning again. First of all, with all the investigations into his corruption, it is pretty slim that he will make it another year. Secondly, we won't be sitting on our hands the next time, like we did this past election.......we never envisioned that enough people were actually dumb enough to vote for this con man, but we won't make that mistake again.

Finally, his "charm" is wearing thin with even his own base, and all the daily dumb things he does have eroded a lot of their confidence in him. To put it mildly, he has been his own worst enemy, and he is getting worse by the hour............no, make that by the minute.
LOL, are you still holding your breath hoping today will be the day roflmao

All you did was make liberal news anchors rich as they fooled you so you'll keep tuning in to keep their ratings up.
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Old 05-19-2018, 05:25 PM
 
Location: 500 miles from home
29,720 posts, read 16,469,939 times
Reputation: 22324
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quick Enough View Post
"As long as he continues to con his brain dead base"


Comments like this and calling us "deplorables" didn't help the dems last time.


What makes you think it will work this time?


Doing the same over and over, do NOT expect different outcomes"

Lol. That's certainly the pot calling the kettle black. How many times have you called someone a libtar* on this forum? Probably more than I can count.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MMS02760 View Post
I got the exact opposite vibe. Trump is still schilling the same old tripe to the same people. It may have worked once for him to get elected without a plurality but it won't happen again. He has failed to move beyond his base. He is doomed.
I mean it's the same old repeat of his greatest hits ~ a tired old man with a tired old message.
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Old 05-19-2018, 05:39 PM
 
Location: Pacific NW
9,442 posts, read 5,791,178 times
Reputation: 7893
Quote:
Originally Posted by burdell View Post
So is Cholera
California is a breeding ground for all sorts of diseases, Cholera, STDs, Liberalism....
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Old 05-19-2018, 05:41 PM
 
Location: Pacific NW
9,442 posts, read 5,791,178 times
Reputation: 7893
Quote:
Originally Posted by MMS02760 View Post
I got the exact opposite vibe. Trump is still schilling the same old tripe to the same people. It may have worked once for him to get elected without a plurality but it won't happen again. He has failed to move beyond his base. He is doomed.
He has higher approval ratings than Obama. Trump only looks doomed from inside a liberal bubble.
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Old 05-19-2018, 09:18 PM
 
20,586 posts, read 8,765,570 times
Reputation: 7082
Quote:
Originally Posted by wholefuds View Post
I can't help but think that he's going to win again

Trumpism is alive and well
If Biden runs, Trump will lose.
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