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The only state that Democrats controlled in 2014 on the legislative level in the South was Kentucky. All the rest were controlled by Republicans as of 2010 and redrawn between than and 2014.
As for "fair", im not even defining it by policy wonks, although, it can be said that the GOP is doing so now;
What Im saying is(using my own state as an example) that someone in Northern Birmingham shouldnt be voting for the same congressmen as someone in Washington County or Monroe county
Yes, I consider West Virginia southern; if all of Virginia was considered southern before the Civil War, I still claim West Virginia as southern today, even though its been separate from Virginia for well over 100 years
Still, I concede that these were only two states; although the GOP didn't control the redistricting process across the south (separate from those two states) immediately after 2010.
The bulk of the rest (including Louisiana) came mostly after the Tea Party wave in 2010.
Still, at a base level, the GOP was still able to win majorities in these areas (for the deep south mostly after the 2010 elections . . . and in other Southern states a decade or two earlier), despite running in districts that were gerrymandered by Democrats for decades. But, as I mentioned before, gerrymandering couldn't stop political-demographic shifts from taking hold and force. Simply put: until 2010 (not 2014, as I alluded to before, though that doesn't really change my message), the bulk of the South's legislative/congressional districts were gerrymandered by Democrats in power. Republicans had to run and win in districts that were set up to keep them out of power. That, of course, failed for reasons I discussed earlier.
The Republican who previously held the seat was the incumbent. Special elections are often weird and quirky events where the unexpected happens. Still, as I mentioned before, in an election that had been pegged as a referendum on POTUS, the baseline wasn't the percentage that an incumbent won the district by, but rather by Trump's performance in the district. Note, I fully expect Handel, as the incumbent, to win handily in November.
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You seem to still be missing the point.
in 2012, the Democrat got 36% of the vote, Barack Obama got 37%
in the 2017 special, the Democrat got 48%, which was actually better than Hillary Clinton.
You think Handel is going to win in November handily, but there is no evidence to support that, especially considering that both sides had a contested Gubernatorial primary and more democratic ballots were given out in that district than Republican ones.
The point however, is that on both sides, people are less and less likely to cross over party lines. This district is actually lean Republican, you guys should be winning here, but what happens in actual toss up districts that are more Democratic ?
in 2012, the Democrat got 36% of the vote, Barack Obama got 37%
in the 2017 special, the Democrat got 48%, which was actually better than Hillary Clinton.
You think Handel is going to win in November handily, but there is no evidence to support that, especially considering that both sides had a contested Gubernatorial primary and more democratic ballots were given out in that district than Republican ones.
The point however, is that on both sides, people are less and less likely to cross over party lines. This district is actually lean Republican, you guys should be winning here, but what happens in actual toss up districts that are more Democratic ?
No, point is well taken. But I explained why I don't think that is the baseline where we should be judging things from for that election. Elections are often personality driven, with people often being able to pick up support due to who they are and how comfortable voters are with them, and not because they belong to a particular party. This is something that is lost when there is no incumbent on the ballot. Take Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins in Maine, for instance. Both had histories of winning their elections in landslides as Republicans. But when Snowe retired, her seat was won pretty comfortably by an independent who caucuses with Democrats (for all intents and purposes he is a Dem for that reason). There's no reason to believe that the same result wouldn't happen if Collins retired. While not exact parallels, a similar phenomenon holds true for many a House district.
As for my belief that Handel is going to win handily, I base that off the fact that there have been no public polls released (I couldn't find any). Had there been any in favor of the Dem challenger, I'd think they'd be made public by now as a rallying cry to raise funds/get out the vote. Also, Handel has the benefit of incumbency and seems to have been fairly noncontroversial in office so far.
Note, while I'm watching the election for governor in Georgia closely, I'd be stunned if the Dem wins. Yes, both primaries were contested; though that doesn't really tell me anything. She's going about campaigning by trying to increase the "progressive" vote as opposed to reaching out to moderates. But that's a recipe for disaster in a state like Georgia.
Its down over 2 points from last week. And is down even more if you remove the outlier Quinnipiac poll having them up by 12 from July 23 . . . note, that poll will be dropped from the average as time goes by.
according to real clear politics, as of 8/13 the Democratic lead has sagged to 3.9 points, less than half of what it was a month ago, well within any poll's margin of error. That's down from an average lead of 6 points earlier in the summer.
according to real clear politics, as of 8/13 the Democratic lead has sagged to 3.9 points, less than half of what it was a month ago, well within any poll's margin of error. That's down from an average lead of 6 points earlier in the summer.
But not according to the poll you started this thread with.
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