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Old 05-24-2018, 08:16 PM
 
Location: Middle of the Pacific Ocean
11,661 posts, read 6,266,537 times
Reputation: 11476

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seacove View Post
As a Democrat, this is not great news but it does have an upside. Trump and the country will have had one party rule/dictatorship for four years. They will own every single thing that happens. Trump loves having something to run against and he would have absolutely nothing to run against since he will be responsible for every single thing that happens. We can run ads reminding the country that Trump promised everyone would have health care and the government was going to pay for it. We can run ads showing how much Trump has enriched himself while in office by hosting government meetings and foreign dignitaries on his own properties. Trump and Kushner are doing all kinds of shenanigans with foreign countries, so hopefully that will be public.

By then, I'm guessing blue states will hate the red states so much that they will not hire their residents, will not do business with them and the country will be on the verge of splitting. So with every downside, there's an upside.
You know what, though? Things seem to be going pretty well for the American worker, which matters more than all else! I'll gladly take four years of that!
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Old 05-25-2018, 03:33 PM
 
Location: NC
5,117 posts, read 1,819,386 times
Reputation: 2374
polls?
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Old 05-26-2018, 12:14 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,920 posts, read 83,566,150 times
Reputation: 41739
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahzzie View Post
The only one that matters will be counted on election day. All others are guesswork at best, even ones that favor Democrats.
Of course it is guess work,but the libs love to run with polls that show how well they are doing. Right now the GOP are just blowing their horns cause there does seem to be a complete flip in the past few months. c ot
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Old 05-26-2018, 01:05 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,290 posts, read 11,528,375 times
Reputation: 4315
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
Of course it is guess work,but the libs love to run with polls that show how well they are doing. Right now the GOP are just blowing their horns cause there does seem to be a complete flip in the past few months. c ot
Both sides tout polls that support them. Why try to make this D vs R ???????
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Old 05-26-2018, 01:09 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,016 posts, read 15,474,890 times
Reputation: 3956
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
Of course it is guess work,but the libs love to run with polls that show how well they are doing. Right now the GOP are just blowing their horns cause there does seem to be a complete flip in the past few months. c ot

RCP average still shows Dems ahead, 538 still shows Dems ahead. The last Reuters poll still shows the Dems ahead https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/...05-23-2018.pdf

This is actually playing games with filtering of the results or picking out the one and only poll showing things good for the GOP, but ignoring everything else., some conservatives posters on here are notorious for only posting certain pollster (typically Rasmussen) while ignoring everything else. Hell the margin mentioned in the OP doesn't even match up to the margin in the link the OP provided......

The margins have tightened, no question I will give you that. Things look better for the GOP than they did early in the year, but the idea of picking just one poll and ignoring everything else is just foolishness.
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Old 05-26-2018, 11:13 PM
 
18,843 posts, read 7,324,124 times
Reputation: 8064
Quote:
Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident View Post
You know what, though? Things seem to be going pretty well for the American worker, which matters more than all else! I'll gladly take four years of that!



UTC 35,000 new USA jobs next 5 years was amazingly good MAGA-nificient news.

Generic poll gap , overall rcp average, trending better each week GOP, is only showing an 4.0 Democratic edge average over last several polls equal to the typical GOP outperformance the last 2 midterms.

GOP will almost surely hold House, add 4-6 in Senate.
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Old 05-27-2018, 01:26 AM
 
Location: The 719
14,540 posts, read 22,406,075 times
Reputation: 13845
Quote:
Originally Posted by texan2yankee View Post
Reuters Polling

by 6%!

wow. what a flip. this reuters poll was as of 5/20/2018.
"Like a five gallon bucket of ice cream in Michael Moore's bed, the Democrats blue wave Midterm elections lead is disappearing fast."

Greg Gutfeld.

Dude is funny.
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Old 05-28-2018, 07:56 PM
 
6,989 posts, read 6,981,700 times
Reputation: 5792
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post


UTC 35,000 new USA jobs next 5 years was amazingly good MAGA-nificient news.

Generic poll gap , overall rcp average, trending better each week GOP, is only showing an 4.0 Democratic edge average over last several polls equal to the typical GOP outperformance the last 2 midterms.

GOP will almost surely hold House, add 4-6 in Senate.
I sure hope the American voting public is not that stupid.
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Old 05-28-2018, 10:07 PM
 
1,737 posts, read 591,298 times
Reputation: 1326
According to RCP in 2014 Republicans outperformed the generic ballot poll by 3.3 points. This is mainly because of higher turnout by the Republican base in midterm elections, which warps the registered voter/likely voter ratio.

Moreover gerrymandering of house districts means that even if the Democrats get more votes, Republicans will still win a majority up to a point. I've seen estimates that gerrymandering effectively adds 2-3 points to the Republican side. Net net Democrats need to be polling +6% to make House control a tossup and more than that to be favored to win.

I see the red team holding the house, and gaining seats in the Senate, up to +7 if Ohio is in play. Which ain't enough to overcome the filibuster so the status quo continues.
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Old 05-29-2018, 05:32 PM
 
18,843 posts, read 7,324,124 times
Reputation: 8064
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avondalist View Post
According to RCP in 2014 Republicans outperformed the generic ballot poll by 3.3 points. This is mainly because of higher turnout by the Republican base in midterm elections, which warps the registered voter/likely voter ratio.

Moreover gerrymandering of house districts means that even if the Democrats get more votes, Republicans will still win a majority up to a point. I've seen estimates that gerrymandering effectively adds 2-3 points to the Republican side. Net net Democrats need to be polling +6% to make House control a tossup and more than that to be favored to win.

I see the red team holding the house, and gaining seats in the Senate, up to +7 if Ohio is in play. Which ain't enough to overcome the filibuster so the status quo continues.


I agree with your expectation, view 4-6 GOP Senate gain likely, and would not be shocked to see Manchin switch parties as 2020 is another good GOP Senate map. 60 good shot then.
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