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Old 06-21-2018, 02:13 PM
 
235 posts, read 87,421 times
Reputation: 150

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vector1 View Post


Polls mean nothing, and I say this even when they comport with my own reasoning and thoughts.

For example, as to FL "now" being (R), it has been so for everything from the state house, governorship, etc. If not for the heavy populated tri-county south FL sections (which are full of liberals from the NE who retired down there), all presidential elections would have gone (R) as well.



True but you also have to see it from the Reverse, if those liberals from the NE did not retire down there it could/would reduce the FL population, reduced population could mean less seats in the house which means less electoral votes. maybe not a lot but a small loss of 2-4 seats/EV maybe. Not sure, but lets say those liberals stay in a state like PA (20 EV goes to 21 EV) or MI (17ev to 18 EV) and since they are voting in a narrow trump state, narrow enough that a say 11,000 liberals in MI vote there or 35,000 liberals in PA stay and vote there it swings back to the Dems with an added EV. its a crazy cycle but you have to take the good with the bad.


Now I acknowledge I may be wrong with that assessment but I also may be right.
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Old 06-21-2018, 04:22 PM
 
Location: Caverns measureless to man...
7,241 posts, read 4,641,424 times
Reputation: 16341
Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyboy84 View Post
There are solid candidates, Sherrod Brown of OH, Casey in PA, Hickenlooper of CO, wyden of Or, I think to a degree the dems are their own worst enemy, they are too focused with a "trophy" candidate, where it MUST be a woman/minority (ethnic or religious) at the top of the ticket from a solid blue state (warren, Sanders, Harris) that the purple "fly over states" feel left out on. A white Male or non-coastal woman (for example former MI Gov Granholm who was moderately popular from a state Trump narrowly won would be left out because she is from a "tougher state" and had to cross the aisle more than Warren or Harris would) are practically told you need not apply.
Granholm was born in Canada, so she isn't eligible to run for President anyway.
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Old 06-21-2018, 07:48 PM
 
235 posts, read 87,421 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. In-Between View Post
Granholm was born in Canada, so she isn't eligible to run for President anyway.
I did not know that..my mistake but my general comment I stand by
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Old 06-21-2018, 11:49 PM
 
Location: Pacific Beach/San Diego
3,649 posts, read 2,456,702 times
Reputation: 3637
Quote:
Originally Posted by Enigma777 View Post
Florida has more registered Democrats than Republicans. How do you mean it is Republican?

The Republican party has lost members in general since the 2016 election, as well. Went from 32% to 28%.

Voter Registration - By Party Affiliation - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgo...ublican-party/
In terms of the polling - - what they saw was Trump popularity there for 2020.
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Old 06-22-2018, 12:23 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
28,175 posts, read 26,116,024 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by American Expat View Post
I will acknowledge that Democrat enthusiasm was stronger in a few elections after Trump was inaugurated but it remains to be seen if that will hold true for the election over a broad spectrum.
You also need to acknowledge that Trump's base in key states such as Pennsylvania is dying off. Westmoreland County, PA's population declines by roughly 2K people per year and most of that is due to natural deaths. Trump can't afford to lose many votes in states he only won by the thinnest of margins.
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Old 06-22-2018, 12:31 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
28,175 posts, read 26,116,024 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dspguy View Post
It is wishful thinking to assume that PA, MI, and WI will flip back.
I don't understand this line of thinking. Trump won Michigan by around 10,000 votes or 0.23% points. Why would it be wishful thinking to assume Michigan could be won back by Democrats? If North Carolina loses too Villanova at the last second of a game, would it be wishful thinking they could pull off a victory the next time they play?
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Old 06-22-2018, 12:41 PM
 
Location: Caverns measureless to man...
7,241 posts, read 4,641,424 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyboy84 View Post
I did not know that..my mistake but my general comment I stand by
I agree with you, too. And I've long regretted that Granholm chose such an unfortunate side of the border to be born.
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Old 06-22-2018, 01:04 PM
 
Location: 15 months till retirement and I can leave the hell hole of New Yakistan
25,231 posts, read 13,977,359 times
Reputation: 6467
Quote:
Originally Posted by TristramShandy View Post
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa all changing for the Democrats while Georgia, Texas, and Arizona are more strongly Republican. Only major changes from 2012: Florida is now Republican and Utah is practically a coin flip.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...-state-polling
if the liberals keep showing that illegals mean more than actual citizens, and that benefits for illegals mean more than a solid middleclass... they are going to lose more votes than they think they are gaining


liberals keep forgetting about the workingclass/middleclass
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Old 06-22-2018, 01:08 PM
 
Location: 15 months till retirement and I can leave the hell hole of New Yakistan
25,231 posts, read 13,977,359 times
Reputation: 6467
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
You also need to acknowledge that Trump's base in key states such as Pennsylvania is dying off. Westmoreland County, PA's population declines by roughly 2K people per year and most of that is due to natural deaths. Trump can't afford to lose many votes in states he only won by the thinnest of margins.
but states like PA, NY..trump won 75% of the state.


in BLUE NY, trump won 75% of the state.... what gave him a loss in new York State is NYC

New York....out of 62 counties... Hillary won only 16..... trump took 46 counties.
of the 5 boroughs of NYC..Hillary lost Staten Island, she could not even carry the whole city
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Old 06-22-2018, 01:12 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
28,175 posts, read 26,116,024 times
Reputation: 11676
Quote:
Originally Posted by workingclasshero View Post
but states like PA, NY..trump won 75% of the state.


in BLUE NY, trump won 75% of the state.... what gave him a loss in new York State is NYC

New York....out of 62 counties... Hillary won only 16..... trump took 46 counties.
of the 5 boroughs of NYC..Hillary lost Staten Island, she could not even carry the whole city
And that would be significant if land mattered rather than people.
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