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Old 06-19-2018, 08:21 AM
 
Location: Pacific Beach/San Diego
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Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa all changing for the Democrats while Georgia, Texas, and Arizona are more strongly Republican. Only major changes from 2012: Florida is now Republican and Utah is practically a coin flip.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...-state-polling
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Old 06-19-2018, 08:28 AM
 
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Apppruvalnpills? Lol
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Old 06-20-2018, 04:21 AM
 
Location: Western Asia
3,187 posts, read 1,443,172 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TristramShandy View Post
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa all changing for the Democrats while Georgia, Texas, and Arizona are more strongly Republican. Only major changes from 2012: Florida is now Republican and Utah is practically a coin flip.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...-state-polling
One problem you have is people say one thing to pollsters and many Republicans and Trump voters won't talk to pollsters, so my guess is that the polls will be way off again and under report Republican strength.


I will acknowledge that Democrat enthusiasm was stronger in a few elections after Trump was inaugurated but it remains to be seen if that will hold true for the election over a broad spectrum.
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Old 06-20-2018, 07:59 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
9,013 posts, read 2,733,677 times
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Originally Posted by American Expat View Post
One problem you have is people say one thing to pollsters and many Republicans and Trump voters won't talk to pollsters, so my guess is that the polls will be way off again and under report Republican strength.


I will acknowledge that Democrat enthusiasm was stronger in a few elections after Trump was inaugurated but it remains to be seen if that will hold true for the election over a broad spectrum.
A few elections?

It's still going on. The most recent example:

Democrats win state Senate seat in Missouri, their 42nd red-to-blue flip of the cycle
Quote:
With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Arthur had defeated Republican Kevin Corlew a fellow state legislator by 19 points. That represented a sizable swing toward Democrats in the 17th district, which backed both Donald Trump and Mitt Romney by 4 points.
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Old 06-21-2018, 10:09 AM
 
2,963 posts, read 3,055,275 times
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Originally Posted by American Expat View Post
I will acknowledge that Democrat enthusiasm was stronger in a few elections after Trump was inaugurated but it remains to be seen if that will hold true for the election over a broad spectrum.
What this poster said.

It is wishful thinking to assume that PA, MI, and WI will flip back. I'm not saying they won't. And if you had me name states I thought would flip, it would be these. But, many were surprised about 2016. I think part of the problem with the polls was that they didn't have enough time to accurate gauge those 3 states with the two October surprises (Hollywood Access Tape and Comey reopening email investigation).

If you ask me, the latest polls probably had the full Access Tape fallout already captured; a downward trend in polls. And just as the polls started creeping back up for Trump for various reasons (people accepting him over Clinton regardless of his failings and maybe Russian meddling using social media) - the polls did not have time to process the full hit to Clinton since 10 days isn't enough to get the full picture.

Anyway, polls were never right. But a conglomeration of them gave you "an idea." And that's all we'll have at the midterms and that's all we'll have in 2020. In the end, it is about voter turnout and voter suppression.
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Old 06-21-2018, 10:20 AM
 
Location: Florida
22,305 posts, read 9,474,932 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TristramShandy View Post
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa all changing for the Democrats while Georgia, Texas, and Arizona are more strongly Republican. Only major changes from 2012: Florida is now Republican and Utah is practically a coin flip.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...-state-polling
Florida has more registered Democrats than Republicans. How do you mean it is Republican?

The Republican party has lost members in general since the 2016 election, as well. Went from 32% to 28%.

Voter Registration - By Party Affiliation - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgo...ublican-party/
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Old 06-21-2018, 11:24 AM
 
235 posts, read 88,047 times
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Originally Posted by dspguy View Post
What this poster said.

It is wishful thinking to assume that PA, MI, and WI will flip back. I'm not saying they won't. And if you had me name states I thought would flip, it would be these. But, many were surprised about 2016. I think part of the problem with the polls was that they didn't have enough time to accurate gauge those 3 states with the two October surprises (Hollywood Access Tape and Comey reopening email investigation).

If you ask me, the latest polls probably had the full Access Tape fallout already captured; a downward trend in polls. And just as the polls started creeping back up for Trump for various reasons (people accepting him over Clinton regardless of his failings and maybe Russian meddling using social media) - the polls did not have time to process the full hit to Clinton since 10 days isn't enough to get the full picture.

Anyway, polls were never right. But a conglomeration of them gave you "an idea." And that's all we'll have at the midterms and that's all we'll have in 2020. In the end, it is about voter turnout and voter suppression.

Most polls showed PA, MI and WI very close towards election day (within the margin of error). Clinton was just a tad arrogant that she would carry them in the long run and put very minimal effort into all 3 states after they had their primary. Add that with the fact of social media misinformation, hard liberals and moderate republicans who couldn't stomach voting for Hillary and voted for trump or voted 3rd party as a protest vote, people assuming she had the election in the bag and didn't bother to vote and credit where credit is due Trump actually campaigning in those states and he pulled off very VERY narrow victories in these states. It doesn't seem like the Dems are taking anything for granted this time around.



Personally I think your wishful thinking is wishful thinking. Dems have done very well in special elections in Wisconsin this year flipping two separate state senate districts that went to trump by double digits and a liberal state supreme court justice was elected by double digits (that vote was statewide). A US house victory in PA-17 that was a congressional district trump won by 18 points or so flipped to the democrats. Many reports show the national republicans not putting senate seats in PA & WI in 2018 on their radar


Do I see a "blue tsunami" can't say I would go that far but I think the house is certainly within reach for the dems and the Senate could be a break even. Am I saying Trump will lose reelection certainly not. Many presidents had horrid midterms only to be reelected 2 years later (Obama, Clinton, Reagan). Time will tell, candidates matter and in sports defense wins games in politics offense wins games, there are more than a fiar share of republicans who do not want to defend Trump (see GOP retirements)

Should be interesting
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Old 06-21-2018, 11:52 AM
 
9,764 posts, read 3,165,269 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyboy84 View Post
Most polls showed PA, MI and WI very close towards election day (within the margin of error). Clinton was just a tad arrogant that she would carry them in the long run and put very minimal effort into all 3 states after they had their primary. Add that with the fact of social media misinformation, hard liberals and moderate republicans who couldn't stomach voting for Hillary and voted for trump or voted 3rd party as a protest vote, people assuming she had the election in the bag and didn't bother to vote and credit where credit is due Trump actually campaigning in those states and he pulled off very VERY narrow victories in these states. It doesn't seem like the Dems are taking anything for granted this time around.



Personally I think your wishful thinking is wishful thinking. Dems have done very well in special elections in Wisconsin this year flipping two separate state senate districts that went to trump by double digits and a liberal state supreme court justice was elected by double digits (that vote was statewide). A US house victory in PA-17 that was a congressional district trump won by 18 points or so flipped to the democrats. Many reports show the national republicans not putting senate seats in PA & WI in 2018 on their radar


Do I see a "blue tsunami" can't say I would go that far but I think the house is certainly within reach for the dems and the Senate could be a break even. Am I saying Trump will lose reelection certainly not. Many presidents had horrid midterms only to be reelected 2 years later (Obama, Clinton, Reagan). Time will tell, candidates matter and in sports defense wins games in politics offense wins games, there are more than a fiar share of republicans who do not want to defend Trump (see GOP retirements)

Should be interesting
what candidate will the Dems run in 2020?


Obama was a once in a lifetime candidate
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Old 06-21-2018, 12:35 PM
 
9,327 posts, read 4,279,537 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TristramShandy View Post
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa all changing for the Democrats while Georgia, Texas, and Arizona are more strongly Republican. Only major changes from 2012: Florida is now Republican and Utah is practically a coin flip.


Polls mean nothing, and I say this even when they comport with my own reasoning and thoughts.

For example, as to FL "now" being (R), it has been so for everything from the state house, governorship, etc. If not for the heavy populated tri-county south FL sections (which are full of liberals from the NE who retired down there), all presidential elections would have gone (R) as well.
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Old 06-21-2018, 02:08 PM
 
235 posts, read 88,047 times
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Originally Posted by dashrendar4454 View Post
what candidate will the Dems run in 2020?


Obama was a once in a lifetime candidate

There are solid candidates, Sherrod Brown of OH, Casey in PA, Hickenlooper of CO, wyden of Or, I think to a degree the dems are their own worst enemy, they are too focused with a "trophy" candidate, where it MUST be a woman/minority (ethnic or religious) at the top of the ticket from a solid blue state (warren, Sanders, Harris) that the purple "fly over states" feel left out on. A white Male or non-coastal woman (for example former MI Gov Granholm who was moderately popular from a state Trump narrowly won would be left out because she is from a "tougher state" and had to cross the aisle more than Warren or Harris would) are practically told you need not apply. A solid but not too crazy progressive yet moderate from OH or PA or MI or similar could swing those narrow trump states back to the dems and maybe just maybe make the GOP sweat in some not so solid any-more red states...AZ, GA and a hail mary in TX (remember 2016 was the closest any democrat got to taking Texas in a generation, Trump 8% victory was a far cry from the double digit blowouts of the past several presidential elections) put that at the top with a coastal left wing darling to appease that wing, something Clinton failed to do with Tim Kaine it could be a strong ticket



Going back to my example of PA-17, the democrat ran for the district not lock-step with Nancy Pelosi +34D district, and he won. If dems looked at the WHOLE picture like Obama did instead of only NYC, LA, SF, Boston, Chicago and other "safe spaces" (he won friggin Indiana in 2008 for gods sake, also took Iowa twice among others) they could pull of something strong.
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