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Old 06-25-2018, 10:02 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
I think Missouri can absolutely flip to the Republicans, even as the Democratic incumbent seems to have a lot of staying power. But in this polarized era it's a good question if she can get enough Trump voters to either support her or abstain. Montana and West Virginia are both highly elastic states and the Republican nominees are going to have to increase their statewide name recognition. In West Virginia in particular, Trump and his surrogates could possibly make the difference - link the Democrats to crime and disorder, increased taxes and unpopular party leaders. Not such an uplifting strategy, but it's worked in many elections.

Tennessee is going to be very difficult once the race becomes nationalized. We've seen numerous races before on both sides where major political names from the past have attempted to make a comeback, and fallen short. Bayh in Indiana and Strickland in Ohio would be examples from 2016, and on the other side, Thompson in Wisconsin from 2012. Bredesen does have an estimable record as governor, but Blackburn is likely going to have to disqualify herself with enough generally solid Republicans - not just moderates and liberals - for him to have a chance. Again, Trump & Co. will get involved and go back to their usual themes of border security, terrorism, cultural identity issues, Schumer/Pelosi/Obama/Clinton and taxes. It takes a really toxic Republican nominee for that formula not to work in solidly red seats.
Until something changes in Tennessee & Missouri they are not in play both are lean dem at this point. When Montanna & West Virginia are within 4 points we can discuss them, but multiple polls have the dems up around 8 points & are sitting on huge war chests both of which will discourage outside money & support from coming in.

Tennessee is going to be an uphill battle for Marsha Blackburn, She is behind in fundraising, has never ran a state-wide race, and is behind a very popular 2 term governor who is widely regarded by the business community, and hasn't led in a single poll.

Missouri should have been a pickup opportunity for the republicans but the governors scandal has severely hurt the AG Hawley running against MacCaskill. He let the governor resign instead of prosecuting him despite the crimes below. This will be used against him like a hammer for the next 6 months.

Greitens has been besieged by scandal for the past few months, after accounts that he had an extramarital affair and allegedly tried to blackmail the woman. Recently, new details surfaced that Greitens allegedly coerced the woman into oral sex, took a nude photo of her as blackmail, and slapped her on multiple occasions.

“I think what was extraordinary about the report was everyone was prepared for it to be bad and uncomfortable and salacious,” said Missouri GOP consultant Gregg Keller. “Even with the expectations set there, it still took a lot of people’s breath away.”

And that’s not all of it. On Tuesday, Hawley gave lawmakers and reporters an update on the investigation he’s been conducting into a veterans charity Greitens founded, called The Mission Continues. Though no formal charges have been filed, Hawley said his office has discovered evidence that Greitens may have committed a felony-level criminal offense by using a donor list of his veterans charity to ask for donations leading up to his 2016 campaign for governor.

Hawley was unusually blunt in remarks to reporter Tuesday, calling Greitens’ conduct in the matter “serious misconduct” and adding he think it constitutes an “impeachable offense.”

Here are the polls which back this up this up, after Hawley announced no charges, there has been only one poll, but it was sited by polled individuals who viewed it very negatively.

Missouri Scout* 5/9 - 5/10 898 LV 3.3 48 44 McCaskill +4
Emerson 4/26 - 4/29 600 LV 4.2 45 45 Tie
Mason-Dixon 4/4 - 4/6 625 RV 4.0 45 44 McCaskill +1
Gravis 3/5 - 3/7 931 RV 3.2 42 40 McCaskill +2

 
Old 06-27-2018, 07:45 AM
 
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Another poll for Florida, this time Nelson is up 5 over Scott. I do like this poll better as they did landline/cellphone plus spanish. 15% of the state speaks spanish as their first language.

chrome-extension://oemmndcbldboiebfnladdacbdfmadadm/http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/Toss%20Up%20Questions_NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Flo rida%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_June%202018.pdf
 
Old 06-27-2018, 09:17 AM
 
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The latest poll on RealClearPolitics is CBS News/YouGov (6/19-6/22): Scott 46, Nelson 41
 
Old 06-27-2018, 09:28 AM
 
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We'll see how these needles move once D vs R is in full swing in each state. I want to see how it's looking in say late September.
 
Old 06-27-2018, 07:23 PM
 
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I would make no bets this year.


I am actually shocked that Heitkamp is the second most vulnerable Dem. She seemed to have been one of the Senators most attuned with their state. I think Indiana is gone as that seat was only won by default- the 2012 R was one of the guys who wasn't sure what rape was....


Florida looks a jumbled mess and the big impact there is just how many people move in and out of that state on a yearly basis. Getting the voter model correct is also a killer since it is such a diverse state in terms of race, geography, urban/rural splits and age. Scott should have an advantage based on his support from senior citizens but if young people vote by some fluke that could be counteracted. The million dollar question is how many of the transplanted Puerto Ricans have registered to vote. And how many their truly are- estimates have ranged from 40k to 400k. I doubt both of those numbers.
 
Old 06-27-2018, 08:20 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,493 posts, read 708,459 times
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The Supreme Court nomination hearings will be a test for the red state Democrats this year. Senators in states that Trump won by double digits are going to have the difficult decision of supporting a nominee whose views they may not align with, but is objectively qualified for the appointment. If they vote against the nominee, their Republican opponents can declare their willingness to work with Trump is a farce and that the senators are just pawns of Schumer and the Democratic leadership.

Democratic leaning voters need to realize the stakes at hand, and even more so for the next replacement that will come after Kennedy's - who is after all still a Republican although he has crossed over periodically on some cases. The SCOTUS' center of gravity will be shifting to the right, but not as much this time as when Ginsburg or Breyer is replaced, which given their ages may very well be before Trump's presidency is over. Having a long term conservative majority on the court could very well stunt significant left-leaning policies implemented by a future Democratic president and Congress.
 
Old 11-05-2018, 10:22 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
8,781 posts, read 2,613,968 times
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Latest RCP no-toss-up map for the Senate has no net gain for either side. Which, considering how difficult the map is for the dems this year, would be quite an accomplishment:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._toss_ups.html

If dems can change just one of those toss-ups to a dem win, it'd be 50-50.
 
Old 11-05-2018, 10:29 AM
 
5,215 posts, read 1,530,876 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Latest RCP no-toss-up map for the Senate has no net gain for either side. Which, considering how difficult the map is for the dems this year, would be quite an accomplishment:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._toss_ups.html

If dems can change just one of those toss-ups to a dem win, it'd be 50-50.
If the Democrats win 1 seat in the Senate, Lisa Murkowski will be the most powerful politician in the Country.
 
Old 11-05-2018, 10:37 AM
 
6,816 posts, read 2,441,823 times
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4 Florida polls released today.

All have Nelson holding his seat in the Senate and Gillum winning the Governor’s seat, each by 4 to 7 points, which would be blowout wins by Florida standards. We’ll see, but overall, the weekend polls are trending blue.
 
Old 11-05-2018, 10:56 AM
 
Location: Washington State
18,052 posts, read 9,353,328 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Latest RCP no-toss-up map for the Senate has no net gain for either side. Which, considering how difficult the map is for the dems this year, would be quite an accomplishment:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._toss_ups.html

If dems can change just one of those toss-ups to a dem win, it'd be 50-50.
Hopefully the polls will be just as accurate as they were in 2016 predicting a Hillary landslide....I'm guessing yes, they will be far off again and the Republicans will do far better than expected....again.
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