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Old 07-31-2018, 11:15 AM
 
Location: In your head, rent free
14,082 posts, read 7,611,884 times
Reputation: 7061

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
A President has won the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote exactly 5 times in 58 Presidential Elections. A situation where a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote is such an aberration from the norm, it’s referred to as a “misfire”. Of the previous four Presidents elected by such a “misfire” only Bush in 2004 won re-election.
That's not what I asked you, I asked you how else could President Trump (or any other candidate) win the Presidency other than winning the electoral college? You made the statement earlier that "He’ll probably have to depend on winning in the electoral college" as if he had another choice, it leads me to believe that you're one of those leftist who believes the fictitious national "popular vote" means something to anyone but sore losers.
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Old 07-31-2018, 11:46 AM
 
6,253 posts, read 3,373,537 times
Reputation: 3444
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
It’s a little early to map out a plan with over two years to go, but here’s some thoughts.

1. Focus on two groups that you need. You need a ticket that both enthuses your base voters while reassuring swing voters, so think of tickets that might do both.

Some examples might be Joe Biden/Kamala Harris or Sherrod Brown/Cory Booker.
How exactly is Joe Biden an enthusing presence? I don't see much of a difference between him and Hillary ... failed presidential candidates on their own, with nothing to recommend them besides if you want 4 more years of BO, vote for me. Hillary tried and failed.

I admit to not knowing much about Sherrod Brown .... can you tell me why he meets your idea of what a winning Democratic ticket needs? Cory Booker looks like a mayor who didn't accomplish much while in Newark that benefited Newark.

Last edited by Minethatbird; 07-31-2018 at 11:53 AM.. Reason: omission
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Old 07-31-2018, 01:32 PM
 
Location: Swiftwater, PA
14,260 posts, read 11,597,494 times
Reputation: 10655
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minethatbird View Post
How exactly is Joe Biden an enthusing presence? I don't see much of a difference between him and Hillary ... failed presidential candidates on their own, with nothing to recommend them besides if you want 4 more years of BO, vote for me. Hillary tried and failed.

I admit to not knowing much about Sherrod Brown .... can you tell me why he meets your idea of what a winning Democratic ticket needs? Cory Booker looks like a mayor who didn't accomplish much while in Newark that benefited Newark.
Sherrod Brown is a 65 year old Senator from Ohio. His voting record is exactly the same as Biden's, Warren's, Pelosi's, Water's and Booker's. Same package; just different wrapping paper. It seems that all the Democrats have that in common anymore. They are afraid that Nancy will give them a wedgie if they speak their own minds. Of course Nancy lost her mind a long time ago!
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Old 07-31-2018, 01:46 PM
 
6,873 posts, read 2,454,769 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minethatbird View Post
How exactly is Joe Biden an enthusing presence? I don't see much of a difference between him and Hillary ... failed presidential candidates on their own, with nothing to recommend them besides if you want 4 more years of BO, vote for me. Hillary tried and failed.

I admit to not knowing much about Sherrod Brown .... can you tell me why he meets your idea of what a winning Democratic ticket needs? Cory Booker looks like a mayor who didn't accomplish much while in Newark that benefited Newark.
Appealing to the base: Cory Booker or Kamala Harris to boost minority turnout.

Reassuring to swing voters: Joe Biden or Sherrod Brown.

Just examples. The primaries will determine who is nominated and in what order, but the twin goals of reassuring swing voters and appealing to the base has happened before. 2008: Barack Obama/Joe Biden.

Anyone the Democrats nominate will receive at least 48% of the vote; that’s their floor level; their high is about 52 or 53%. A Republican nominee has a floor level of about 46% and a ceiling of about 51%. The election will be decided in 6 to 8 states that are still competitive. Anyone saying with certitude how it will play out in 2+ years is blowing smoke.

We’ll have a better picture of the lay of the land after the results of the midterms and the political season of 2020 really begins.
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Old 07-31-2018, 02:03 PM
 
1,787 posts, read 1,121,179 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minethatbird View Post

I admit to not knowing much about Sherrod Brown .... can you tell me why he meets your idea of what a winning Democratic ticket needs? Cory Booker looks like a mayor who didn't accomplish much while in Newark that benefited Newark.
Booker not only is another corrupt politician, he's also tied to big pharma and is pro drug companies. Remember that executive order Trump signed to cut drug regulations? Booker was against that.
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Old 07-31-2018, 02:07 PM
 
Location: southern california
55,464 posts, read 74,315,920 times
Reputation: 47850
Massive dead people vote
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Old 07-31-2018, 02:35 PM
 
Location: Bellingham, WA
286 posts, read 794,576 times
Reputation: 468
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
“You and many” anecdotal evidence isn’t the same as hard data. From your attachment, you’re not a swing voter either.

1. Trump has fantastic support among self-identified Republicans (87%)
2. But the percentage of self-identified Republicans has dropped from about 29% to 26% of the electorate.

From the latest Quinnipiac Poll on Donald Trump’s Job Approval

Support from Republicans: Approve 82% Disapprove 15%
Support from Democrats: Approve 7% Disapprove 92%
Support from Independents: Approve 32% Disapprove 61%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/u...18_ufgp12.pdf/

Here’s an excerpt from a column from Jennifer Rubin, which is from January 2018, but still relevant.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...=.a7003c01cc67

Trump has a smaller, more cohesive choir, but he has never had the support of a majority of the American people. He’s doubled down on pleasing his base, which demographically is shrinking due to aging by about 3% of registered voters nationally every four years.

He could win in 2020, but it won’t be an easy feat because his base is too narrow for that to be likely at all. He’ll probably have to depend on winning in the electoral college. Thus far in our history, only one candidate was elected to a second term after winning a first term in the E.C. while losing the national popular vote; George W. Bush in 2004, and even that wasn’t “easy” since he won Ohio by about 100,000 and needed that state to win in the electoral college.
If there’s one thing 2016 taught us, it’s that polls and predictions mean absolutely nothing.

There is no path to 270 electoral votes without middle America. That is a mathematical fact. And your side’s post-election behavior is only alienating this voting segment even more.

Another big problem for your side is that you’ll be heading into the next election without the power of the press on your side. Nobody believes your news sources anymore.

I don’t think the question is who will win the next election...it’s how many elections the dems will lose before they learn their lesson. Apparently, the 1,042 dem congressional, legislative and governorship seats lost during Obama’s years wasn’t a sufficient wake up call.

Good luck.
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Old 07-31-2018, 02:42 PM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
26,363 posts, read 62,550,831 times
Reputation: 30048
They will run Oprah/Michelle Obama. Crushing Trump. Then the Republicans will come up with a real celebrity to beat Oprah. Maury? Kanye? Batman could win if he were allowed to run as Batman.
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Old 07-31-2018, 03:02 PM
 
6,873 posts, read 2,454,769 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CoastieTX View Post
If there’s one thing 2016 taught us, it’s that polls and predictions mean absolutely nothing.

There is no path to 270 electoral votes without middle America. That is a mathematical fact. And your side’s post-election behavior is only alienating this voting segment even more.

Another big problem for your side is that you’ll be heading into the next election without the power of the press on your side. Nobody believes your news sources anymore.

I don’t think the question is who will win the next election...it’s how many elections the dems will lose before they learn their lesson. Apparently, the 1,042 dem congressional, legislative and governorship seats lost during Obama’s years wasn’t a sufficient wake up call.

Good luck.
You’re betting on the most polarizing, unpopular President ever elected and on a base of which the core is a demographic that makes up 3% less of the national registered vote every four years. Over the long haul, you’ll need a lot of luck yourself.

Seriously, the results of the midterms will give us a better idea of where we stand nationally.

Do you know what the average loss has been since World War II for a President's party in House races in an off year when the President's approval is less than 50%?

45.5 seats

That would reverse the current R edge of 23 seats. It will be interesting if the GOP incumbents can beat those odds with the anvil of Donald Trump around their collective necks.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 07-31-2018 at 03:14 PM..
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Old 07-31-2018, 03:24 PM
 
Location: Out West
22,510 posts, read 16,670,362 times
Reputation: 26074
Quote:
Originally Posted by Above Average Bear View Post
When WaldoKitty writes, I read. You were just about the only who predicted a Trump victory.
From day 1 she did. She endured more insults and attacks on this forum than anyone else for 2 solid years. I now pay attention when Waldo Kitty speaks.
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