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Old 08-02-2018, 06:50 PM
 
Location: Swiftwater, PA
14,281 posts, read 11,631,138 times
Reputation: 10687

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
In the FiveThirtyEight average of Polls, which compensated for house effect bias in the various pollsters, Trump has an approval of 41.4% and a disapproval of 52.8% for a -11.4% approval nationally.

https://politicalwire.com

Donald Trump remains the most unpopular President in the modern polling era. Any Democrat nominated will give him a very competitive race. If you think otherwise, you need to step out of the cultist bubble and get some fresh air.
You had a shot at him with the largest war chest ever and you lost. Money did not make the difference and Biden is just another old politician (like Hillary). You have to get the masses fired up and Biden will not do that. Show us one rally with Biden that shows the kind of enthusiasm that you see in a Trump rally. Your poll number mean nothing if you cannot get them to the polls!
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Old 08-02-2018, 07:05 PM
 
6,933 posts, read 2,475,526 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fisheye View Post
You had a shot at him with the largest war chest ever and you lost. Money did not make the difference and Biden is just another old politician (like Hillary). You have to get the masses fired up and Biden will not do that. Show us one rally with Biden that shows the kind of enthusiasm that you see in a Trump rally. Your poll number mean nothing if you cannot get them to the polls!
Over the past 5 Presidential Elections, every Democratic nominee has received at least 48% of the popular vote. Over the same period of time, the only Republican to win the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004. Donald Duck could run against Donald Trump and receive 48% of the popular vote.

Ergo, any Democratic nominee can get at least 48% of the popular vote, which means that any Democratic nominee will run a competitive race against any Republican nominee. Whomever wins the majority of about 6-8 competitive states will win the election, but no election is going to be a cakewalk for any candidate. If you think otherwise, you’re deluding yourself.

FYI, Trump’s approval ratings are currently underwater in the following states he carried in 2016: Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He has a positive rating in 23 states with a total of 219 electoral votes, has a negative rating in 26 states with 302 electoral votes and 2 states with 17 votes are dead even.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/
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Old 08-02-2018, 07:36 PM
 
Location: Swiftwater, PA
14,281 posts, read 11,631,138 times
Reputation: 10687
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Over the past 5 Presidential Elections, every Democratic nominee has received at least 48% of the popular vote. Over the same period of time, the only Republican to win the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004. Donald Duck could run against Donald Trump and receive 48% of the popular vote.

Ergo, any Democratic nominee can get at least 48% of the popular vote, which means that any Democratic nominee will run a competitive race against any Republican nominee. Whomever wins the majority of about 6-8 competitive states will win the election, but no election is going to be a cakewalk for any candidate. If you think otherwise, youíre deluding yourself.

FYI, Trumpís approval ratings are currently underwater in the following states he carried in 2016: Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He has a positive rating in 23 states with a total of 219 electoral votes, has a negative rating in 26 states with 302 electoral votes and 2 states with 17 votes are dead even.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

All of the support you supposedly have has to turn out and vote. That has not happened so far and we are a long ways away from a Presidential election. Many, many pollsters and CD members were wrong in 2016; what makes you so confident?
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Old 08-02-2018, 07:57 PM
 
9,692 posts, read 3,124,454 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Over the past 5 Presidential Elections, every Democratic nominee has received at least 48% of the popular vote. Over the same period of time, the only Republican to win the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004. Donald Duck could run against Donald Trump and receive 48% of the popular vote.

Ergo, any Democratic nominee can get at least 48% of the popular vote, which means that any Democratic nominee will run a competitive race against any Republican nominee. Whomever wins the majority of about 6-8 competitive states will win the election, but no election is going to be a cakewalk for any candidate. If you think otherwise, youíre deluding yourself.

FYI, Trumpís approval ratings are currently underwater in the following states he carried in 2016: Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He has a positive rating in 23 states with a total of 219 electoral votes, has a negative rating in 26 states with 302 electoral votes and 2 states with 17 votes are dead even.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/



Iím pretty sure his approval rating was underwater in those states before he won them as well
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Old 08-02-2018, 08:04 PM
 
Location: Swiftwater, PA
14,281 posts, read 11,631,138 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dashrendar4454 View Post
Iím pretty sure his approval rating was underwater in those states before he won them as well

Bureaucat called for Hillary to win right up till the last second. That did not pan out as we well know.

But it is way to early to predict election in 2020. My feelings are that Biden is not their right candidate; no matter what original support he musters.
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Old 08-02-2018, 08:38 PM
 
6,933 posts, read 2,475,526 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fisheye View Post
Bureaucat called for Hillary to win right up till the last second. That did not pan out as we well know.

But it is way to early to predict election in 2020. My feelings are that Biden is not their right candidate; no matter what original support he musters.
Iím not saying that Biden necessarily would beat Trump. What Iím saying is that based on recent political history and on Trumpís popularity, or lack thereof, I donít think that Trump is capable of an ďeasyĒ win, unless he is able to grow his base a lot bigger than it was in 2016, or appears to be now.

Only time will tell.
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Old 08-02-2018, 09:02 PM
 
20,586 posts, read 8,767,298 times
Reputation: 7082
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
Actually Biden might be much easier to beat -- Crooked Hillary had all those women's voters who voted for her because, well, she's a woman and it's her turn, darn it.


You think Biden's going to get votes because he's an Eagles fan? LOL


Biden is yesterday's news.


If the democrats ever want to win back the white house, they can start by nominating someone younger.
Biden would win Pennsylvania, no doubt. And Trump needs to win that state.
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Old 08-02-2018, 09:14 PM
 
514 posts, read 279,531 times
Reputation: 321
Some historical perspective, in November 2010, whilst Barack Obama had a 45% approval rating:

Mike Huckabee 52
Barack Obama 44

Mitt Romney 50
Barack Obama 45

Barack Obama 49
Newt Gingrich 47

Barack Obama 52
Sarah Palin 44 (lulz)

Poll: GOP candidates top Obama in hypothetical 2012 race - CNN.com

Not much point reading into election polls now really.
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Old 08-02-2018, 10:07 PM
 
Location: Washington State
18,220 posts, read 9,448,493 times
Reputation: 15521
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
And we don't even know if Biden is going to run, yet.

*awaits predictable Trumpets complaining about polls, disregarding the fact that they cite them all the time when it's in their favor*

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...ections-752979
Sounds like Hillary replay.
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Old 08-02-2018, 11:45 PM
 
6,268 posts, read 3,383,752 times
Reputation: 3449
Quote:
Originally Posted by natalie469 View Post
Biden would win Pennsylvania, no doubt. And Trump needs to win that state.
What did Biden do for Pennsylvania while VP that they should abandon Trump and vote for Joe?
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