U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 09-19-2018, 08:36 AM
 
3,481 posts, read 5,106,866 times
Reputation: 1544

Advertisements

Cruz was up 9 in a Quinnipiac University Poll 54-45 which was released yesterday. This poll switched from registered to likely voters.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2570

Today a new reuters poll shows Beto up 2 in likely voters.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...rce=reddit.com
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 09-19-2018, 09:02 AM
 
11,431 posts, read 8,433,395 times
Reputation: 7081
Quote:
Originally Posted by dspguy View Post
While personally I am anti-gun, I recognize that politically it can be necessary to take a softer stance on it. Look at that Democrat from PA-18 that won the district even though historically it is R+11. Part of the reason he did it? He had some moderate stances. Some stances were generally leaning Democrat, but a few were more in the middle. He is for background checks but against further restrictions.

I think what most Democratic candidates fail to realize is that they don't need to fall in line with each and every part of the Democratic agenda. Sometimes it is "just enough." Say you are pro-choice but not looking to extend the time limits past 20 weeks. Say you are pro-background checks but not anti-gun. Those are some of the most divisive topics for politicians.

Politicians need to bring in those undecided voters. And a politician that can walk that fine line of being (for example) a Democrat that isn't looking to rock the boat with Republicans on key issues might bring in some undecided voters to make the difference.

According to Beto's website, his stances on gun safety are:

1. Background checks
2. Limit further sales of "weapons of war" (I guess that's assault rifles?)
3. Limit sales of high capacity magazines
4. Opposes Concealed Carry Reciprocity (I guess this forces people coming into the state to abide by Texas-specific laws)
5. Federal research on gun violence

If you ask me, #1 4 and 5 shouldn't be a big deal. Most people seem to agree with background checks. #4 actually protects Texans. It might harm out-of-staters, but voting Texans shouldn't care about them. It allows Texas to set their own rules for concealed carry. And #5 is just "let's look into this, but not promise anything."

#2 and #3 are deal breakers for some conservatives. And that's where Beto might have made a miscalculation. I don't know if you can win in Texas if you are talking about banning assault rifles. That's not to say all Texans carry around these weapons. But, the NRA has done a good job of preaching "give an inch and they take a mile." Now, if these are Beto's principles and he won't budge - good for him. But he likely won't win since those principles might not align with the voters he needs to attract from across the aisle.

Does limit mean stop? Ban? He would have said ban, IMO.
The NRA is just like Planned Parenthood. They are both afraid to get an inch, lest somebody tries for a mile.
Beto needs to go after non voters. No Republican voter will vote for him.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-19-2018, 09:51 AM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
66,498 posts, read 33,773,808 times
Reputation: 14238
Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has a nine-point lead in his bid for reelection, according to a new poll released Tuesday.
With seven weeks until Election Day, Cruz has a 54 percent to 45 percent lead over Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso among likely voters, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday.

Texas has only been RED for 20 years..

Ninety-three percent of likely Texas voters say their mind is already made up in this race, which has been more competitive than expected.


BLUE WAVE ? Voters elected political newcomer Pete Flores to the Texas Senate on Tuesday, flipping a Democratic district red for the first time in 139 years and bolstering Republicans’ supermajority in the chamber ahead of the November elections.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cvt...e=youtu.be&t=7
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-19-2018, 09:51 AM
 
12,033 posts, read 5,709,124 times
Reputation: 7034
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
Cruz was up 9 in a Quinnipiac University Poll 54-t 45 which was released yesterday. This poll switched from registered to likely voters.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2570

Today a new reuters poll shows Beto up 2 in likely voters.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...rce=reddit.com
The IPSOS poll (Reuters/UVA) is an online poll ..... which is fine except they don't list any of their Methodology. Anyone seen a map of Texas?? Do you have any idea how much of that land has no cell phone coverage and no internet coverage? It's almost shocking.

https://www.political-atlas.com/meth...y?races=senate

The latest poll that has Beto up on Cruz by 2 points uses Social Media has a big part of their analysis and has Trump approval in Texas below 50%. I seriously doubt that.

The key is going to be turnout for sure, it always is. A poll just last month (that did provide the questions asked, the methodology and the weighting ..... showed that 40% of the people polled still didn't know who Beto was.

This is good news for Beto because he is finally up in a poll.

The only poll that really counts in the one on November 6.
I'll be glad when this is over - about 50 days left.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-19-2018, 10:30 AM
 
3,481 posts, read 5,106,866 times
Reputation: 1544
Quote:
Originally Posted by BentBow View Post
Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has a nine-point lead in his bid for reelection, according to a new poll released Tuesday.
With seven weeks until Election Day, Cruz has a 54 percent to 45 percent lead over Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso among likely voters, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday.

Texas has only been RED for 20 years..

Ninety-three percent of likely Texas voters say their mind is already made up in this race, which has been more competitive than expected.


BLUE WAVE ? Voters elected political newcomer Pete Flores to the Texas Senate on Tuesday, flipping a Democratic district red for the first time in 139 years and bolstering Republicans’ supermajority in the chamber ahead of the November elections.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cvt...e=youtu.be&t=7
A newer poll has Beto up 2 now...

Cruz is behind for the first time in the contest, I imagine this will only increase as Beto is picking up all the undecideds.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-19-2018, 11:07 AM
 
Location: Stasis
15,837 posts, read 10,035,610 times
Reputation: 8547
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kibby
The IPSOS poll (Reuters/UVA) is an online poll ..... which is fine except they don't list any of their Methodology. Anyone seen a map of Texas?? Do you have any idea how much of that land has no cell phone coverage and no internet coverage? It's almost shocking.
Vacant acerage doesn't vote. Only a few survivalists and off-the-gridders live in those no cell phone areas.

ISPOS used the same methodology they use for all their surveys.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/...exas_final.pdf

"The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’s online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education. "
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-19-2018, 11:39 AM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA (Sandy Springs)
5,176 posts, read 2,816,540 times
Reputation: 3905
For Texas to even be in play at all this blue wave has to be pretty large.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-19-2018, 12:04 PM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
66,498 posts, read 33,773,808 times
Reputation: 14238
Quote:
Originally Posted by atltechdude View Post
For Texas to even be in play at all this blue wave has to be pretty large.



This was all the rage before the Primaries.."Texas is turning Blue" Well Texas has only been Red for 20 years.
When the primaries were over, Republicans got 3x's the people to the polls in a Mid-term Primary.
It shut this talk of a Blue Wave down quick. They shut up until the media gets them hyped up again.
With the virtue checking and physical harm to person & property, that the Communist have demonstrated, you are hard presses to see a Ted Cruz yard sign or bumper sticker.
They call us, "The Silent Majority"
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-19-2018, 12:08 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA (Sandy Springs)
5,176 posts, read 2,816,540 times
Reputation: 3905
Quote:
Originally Posted by BentBow View Post
the Communist
I'm not aware of any candidates for political office in TX that are communists.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-19-2018, 04:58 PM
Status: "think locally, act yokelly." (set 23 days ago)
 
Location: Clyde Hill, WA
3,272 posts, read 579,095 times
Reputation: 981
Ted Cruz widens lead over Beto O'Rourke in new Quinnipiac poll

Quinnipiac poll of likely voters from yesterday has Cruz up 54-45.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top