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Old 09-20-2018, 09:37 AM
 
Location: Middle of the Pacific Ocean
11,746 posts, read 6,319,585 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
There were two polls released yesterday. One showing Cruz up 9 (which I assume is the one you were talking about) and another showing O'Rouke up 2
What poll shows O'Rourke up by 2? If such a poll exists, RCP isn't including it in their average of polls for the race, which they generally only do for problematic polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...urke-6310.html
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Old 09-20-2018, 10:13 AM
 
11,494 posts, read 8,461,078 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
seems our guy Cruz is starting to pull ahead. I think, regardless of how many feel or how much the Dems want him gone, he will pull this thing out. I am not a believer of polls as most of you know, but for those who do think polls are like the Bible, the last word, it looks like the polls are leaning against the Dems, at least in this race.
You live in Arkansas.
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Old 09-20-2018, 10:21 AM
 
11,494 posts, read 8,461,078 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
I have heard from 2 different sources and I do not know which polls but it was this week, Cruz was up by 6. Again, I don't know for certain, just what I have heard.
Quinnipiac had Cruz up by 6 or 8.

Beto knew going in this was a suicide mission. He doesn't have any heavy duty national campaign people on staff. From what I've seen it's all volunteers, except a couple. Nobody who will rake off 5% of the donations.

IMO, it is those consultants taking home millions that have ruined campaigning.

I have been pushed polled this cycle to the point of it being a PITA.

But I have gotten a couple calls that ask if anybody works media or PR. I think that is real. I usually say yes. Last night I ask,'in my household' and answered yes, media, but not on my household They went ahead with the questions.
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Old 09-20-2018, 10:25 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,045 posts, read 15,505,597 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident View Post
What poll shows O'Rourke up by 2? If such a poll exists, RCP isn't including it in their average of polls for the race, which they generally only do for problematic polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...urke-6310.html
Ipsos

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../senate/texas/
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Old 09-20-2018, 10:42 AM
 
Location: Middle of the Pacific Ocean
11,746 posts, read 6,319,585 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Thanks! I'm curious to know why RCP isn't using this poll in its average.
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:51 PM
 
30,181 posts, read 47,402,141 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crone View Post
Quinnipiac had Cruz up by 6 or 8.

Beto knew going in this was a suicide mission. He doesn't have any heavy duty national campaign people on staff. From what I've seen it's all volunteers, except a couple. Nobody who will rake off 5% of the donations.

IMO, it is those consultants taking home millions that have ruined campaigning.

I have been pushed polled this cycle to the point of it being a PITA.

But I have gotten a couple calls that ask if anybody works media or PR. I think that is real. I usually say yes. Last night I ask,'in my household' and answered yes, media, but not on my household They went ahead with the questions.
No--I think Beto thought that the time was right to make a push to unseat one of the most disliked Senators in recent memory...
That his message and his manner could reach Texans of various backgrounds that might have been turned off by politics and not voted in the past or reach GOP voters who were unhappy with the road that party has taken, especially after Trump's election...
Beto believes in his message and his outreach to GOP members who are willing to meet in the middle to accomplish valuable legislation for Americans
He has done it before and he can do it if he makes it to the Senate IF GOP Senators are willing to pull that stick out of their behinds and consider making a positive contribution to Americans' lives...

Consultants do have an impact on campaigns for sure
Manafort was a very successful election consultant before he went totally foreign outreach
Roger Stone still is
Plenty of people working GOP campaigns and Democratic ones have been able to exert their judgement in choosing candidates and agendas based on how to get money from big donors and special interests vs how to improve lives of ALL Americans...
But candidates don't have to be corrupted by consultants if they are willing to run outside the system
Beto is really running w/o overreach of the DNC--one reason he is not taking PAC money is just that--
Keeping that pressure out of his campaign allows him to set HIS message

I think HRC's consultants gave her bad insight into how to focus her campaign
The debate when Trump stalked her on stage she was probably coached to ignore him doing something like that because calling him out on it would be seen as a posture of fear maybe
But I think she would have come out better if she had challenged him to return to his place on the stage
That she wasn't afraid to challenge him or any male leader
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Katy-zuela
4,852 posts, read 9,003,863 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
I am not a believer of polls as most of you know, but for those who do think polls are like the Bible, the last word, it looks like the polls are leaning against the Dems, at least in this race.
Well Trump felt the same way--when Clinton was sure to make a clean sweep--until he got "elected." The same way he said that the Recovery was "fake" until he took the helm and tried to pass off Obama's coat-tails as his own.

The last election exposed the Immoral Minority is a big fraud. They are just a para-political organization infiltrating, mostly, Evangelical churches and a vehicle to force society to follow their creed--by law! Texas is becoming less Evangelical and more secular.

For example there was a bumper crop in my neighborhood, a few years ago, of fly-by-night Non-denominational church plantings meeting in school cafeterias on Sundays. The bumper crop has largely disappeared, with schools staying closed through the weekends. I've seen more people jogging along the street and trails on my way to the Mainstream church that I attend.
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:58 PM
 
30,181 posts, read 47,402,141 times
Reputation: 16118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
I can see the polls' results--and I get the fact that some are more accurate than others and use variety of methods but I don't get how they run the +/- numbers on the side

Today's poll shows they are tied 50/50
Yet it does not give Beto credit for being up 3 points from the poll underneath it
Why?
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Old 09-20-2018, 02:35 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,045 posts, read 15,505,597 times
Reputation: 3959
Quote:
Originally Posted by loves2read View Post
I can see the polls' results--and I get the fact that some are more accurate than others and use variety of methods but I don't get how they run the +/- numbers on the side

Today's poll shows they are tied 50/50
Yet it does not give Beto credit for being up 3 points from the poll underneath it
Why?
That poll is taking into consideration. 538 and RCP average polls differently. RCP uses a straight up average method of the last few polls. 538 does that, but also weights polls based on how accurate that pollster has been in the past, size of sample, how recent the poll is, will also make adjustments if a pollster has a tendency to be off on one side or the other. The poll showing Beto up was taking into account, but since Cruz is up in more polls it still shows him ahead and with a better chance of winning (albeit close)
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Old 09-20-2018, 04:31 PM
 
3,482 posts, read 5,116,712 times
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Another poll out today... 50/50 tie...

https://poppolling.com/wp-content/up...Sept.-2018.pdf

Beto is building a lot of momentum & might just pull this out. Cruz is clearly bleeding voters which for a well known incumbent is a telling sign.
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