August 8 Primary Election Results & Ohio Special Election Results (parties, voters, Democrats)
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Ahh. So you weren't serious when you said there was a "Blue Wave" coming. Wishful thinking. Trump endorsed the guy, He Won.
Excuses & Denial.
(but if Democrats want to believe that losing an election is really a "win", then who am I to argue with that delusion?)
Again you are not comprehending or likely misleading my comment on purpose. Fact of the matter is this was a solid GOP seat, even in waves its usually not the solid seats that flip. It is swing seats and seats that marginally lean to one side or the other.
The fact remains he won: it make no difference whether it was 1 vote or a million and and who much you want to believe he under performed. I am guessing you might be one of the few (maybe 3 or 4) that would even venture a guess saying the Dems will pick up 40 seats, even 30. Of course they are going to pick up some. If they don't they are really in deep trouble for decades to come. The party not in the white house always pick up seats in an off year election.
I personally think this will be a 2006 type of wave. If a district like this fell, it would have been more indicative of a 2010 type wave.
Simple, candidate X holds a seat for 18 years in-a-row, and you think it's about party, and not the person holding the seat.
Trump and Patrick Tiberi won big. Patrick Tiberi won big for 18 years, even though Barack Obama won the 12th district by a margin of 53% to 46%.
Troy Balderson is not Obama, or Trump, and he is not Tiberi.
Not everyone is a partisan party man, who votes straight Party ticket, no matter who the candidates are. That's what you may be missing here.
Obama won the district under the old lines in 20088. After redistricting the district became more Republican. McCain won the district by 9 in 2008 under the current lines, both Romney and Trump won it by 11. This is not a swing district yet it was very close.
Obama won the district under the old lines in 20088. After redistricting the district became more Republican. McCain won the district by 9 in 2008 under the current lines, both Romney and Trump won it by 11. This is not a swing district yet it was very close.
A win in a district like this? No, but getting this close in a district as GOP as this one it, is a good sign for them as it relates to chances at picking up more marginal districts.
I was happy to see John James, endorsed by Trump, won his primary. I had started a separate thread about him after I saw him interviewed on Fox News. Very impressive man, regardless of party. Too bad I don't live in Michigan.
I know there's skepticism, but the OH-12 results should leave Republicans worried. It isn't necessarily indicative about the country on the whole... but this yet another head-to-head contest where Democrats outperformed (win or lose) by a large margin.
Democrats don't need OH-12 to take back the house. However, consider the following... if two non-flawed candidates (these guys weren't like Roy Moore) wind up in a dead-heat in a district that usually votes R+7... imagine what the House looks like if every seat R+6 and below is won by a Democrat:
R+6: 11 seats
R+5: 9 seats
R+4:11
R+3:9
R+2: 8
R+1: 8
Even: 8
D+1 and up: 192 seats
That's 256 Democrats in the House. And that's assuming that the "dead-heat" R+7 districts like OH all go Republican instead.
Other special elections have mostly shown larger democratic swings than the OH-12 special election:
KS-4 was R+29, special election vote result was R+6 for a 23 point swing towards democrats
MT-1 was R+21, special election vote result was R+6 for a 15 point swing towards democrats
GA-6 was R+9, special election vote result was R+4 for a 5 point swing towards democrats
SC-5 was R+19, special election vote result was R+3 for a 16 point swing towards democrats
UT-3 was R+35, special election vote result was R+32 for a 3 point swing towards democrats
AL-Senate was R+29, special election vote result was D+2 for a 31 point swing towards democrats
PA-18 was R+21, special election vote result was D+1 for a 22 point swing towards democrats
AZ-8 was R+25, special election vote result was R+5 for a 20 point swing towards democrats
And while on the surface, most of those races were ultimately won by Republicans - it would be easy to say "Look at these Democrats trying to turn a loss into a win." And there is some truth to that. However, most of these special elections were due to presidential appointments (like Sessions' AL seat). In many cases, the appointees are commonly chosen from seats that are likely to be "held" in a special election.
But in all of these cases, there has been a definitive swing towards Democrats. The numbers don't lie. These aren't poll numbers. These are comparisons between recent voting histories in those districts (such as in the 2016 election) and actual voting results in these contests.
There is little doubt that if the election was held today, there'd be a "wave" as some people call it. However, the election isn't being held today. Without some great change in the political environment to convince voters otherwise, Democrats would only need to a shift of 3% of the vote to take back the House by winning the R+3, R+2, R+1, even districts. But as recently as just yesterday, they are putting R+7 districts in jeopardy.
Honestly, I expect an "October Surprise" by Trump to offset this. He's going to announce some unsubstantiated "deal" with Iran claiming that they will denuclearize but with no time table and no details. I bet he is going to bank on something like that to save his party. Right now, the only thing saving his party is gerrymandering. In theory, if Democrats win nationwide, the Congressional vote they should hold a majority in the House. But, as it stands, they need to win by 3-4% in order to do that. Gerrymandering ftw...
Its a mute point. Supreme Court already ruled on this so why waste time voting to keep it when the law of the land has already been laid down on it? LOL...
The Supreme Court ruling was about public sector unions. Proposition A in Missouri was about private sector unions.
The fact remains he won: it make no difference whether it was 1 vote or a million and and who much you want to believe he under performed. I am guessing you might be one of the few (maybe 3 or 4) that would even venture a guess saying the Dems will pick up 40 seats, even 30. Of course they are going to pick up some. If they don't they are really in deep trouble for decades to come. The party not in the white house always pick up seats in an off year election.
With over 2000 ballots still outstanding, I think it is too soon to say he won
Those ballots need to be counted
Not to do so in such a close election is to disenfranchise any of those voters who cast a LEGAL ballot under the requirements of Ohio voting law
This makes the special election just as problamatic as if there was proof of illegal voting---
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