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Old 09-12-2018, 05:41 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,567 posts, read 748,656 times
Reputation: 1674

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Arizona: Sinema (D) 47-44
Indiana: Braun (R) 45-43
Missouri: McCaskill (D) 44-41
North Dakota: Cramer (R) 48-44
Tennessee: Blackburn (R) 47-44

It looks like competitive contests in these five red states - given the margins of error, there is little certainty of who is ahead in each race. AZ and TN are open R seats, while incumbent Ds are defending IN, MO and ND. Note there are many undecided or third party voters, in MO especially ... and they could break for either side in the end.

The unfortunate reality for Democrats is that while they will most likely achieve gains in the House and governors offices this year, it is going to be very difficult to avoid losing a few Senate seats. In a chamber where each state has equal representation, that is a logical consequence of the party's support being overly centered in large urban places.

 
Old 09-12-2018, 06:10 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,304 posts, read 11,547,111 times
Reputation: 4317
Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
Arizona: Sinema (D) 47-44
Indiana: Braun (R) 45-43
Missouri: McCaskill (D) 44-41
North Dakota: Cramer (R) 48-44
Tennessee: Blackburn (R) 47-44

It looks like competitive contests in these five red states - given the margins of error, there is little certainty of who is ahead in each race. AZ and TN are open R seats, while incumbent Ds are defending IN, MO and ND. Note there are many undecided or third party voters, in MO especially ... and they could break for either side in the end.

The unfortunate reality for Democrats is that while they will most likely achieve gains in the House and governors offices this year, it is going to be very difficult to avoid losing a few Senate seats. In a chamber where each state has equal representation, that is a logical consequence of the party's support being overly centered in large urban places.
Actually it's not . If Dems in the cities voted at the same rate as rural counties, Dems would win all of these races with the exception of North Dakota , and that's because there is actually a higher percentage of Democrats in rural areas than there are Republicans in cities .
 
Old 09-12-2018, 07:21 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,567 posts, read 748,656 times
Reputation: 1674
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
Actually it's not . If Dems in the cities voted at the same rate as rural counties, Dems would win all of these races with the exception of North Dakota , and that's because there is actually a higher percentage of Democrats in rural areas than there are Republicans in cities .
The polls are pretty mixed at this time, and certainly do not suggest a solid advantage for Democrats in some of the key states they need to pick up or hold to win a majority this year. They are going to need to demonstrate a strong performance (at least, strong relative to recent elections) in both metropolitan and rural areas, including some of the electorate that supported Trump and Congressional Republicans in 2016 and prior cycles.

I don't think flipping the Senate is completely a lost cause, but many people who are ready to place a check on the president via Democratic congressional majorities are underestimating how difficult this will be to achieve. The path this year runs through several states that are far less diverse, less urban, and more conservative than the nation at large. Most of the solid blue states where "The Resistance" is strongest already have two Democratic senators, so the party needs to look elsewhere for opportunities - and to play defense to avoid falling further behind.
 
Old 09-12-2018, 07:50 PM
 
3,481 posts, read 5,111,527 times
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First poll I've seen Blackburn up, I want to see another couple of polls with her up before I worry about Tennessee...
 
Old 09-12-2018, 08:23 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,567 posts, read 748,656 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
First poll I've seen Blackburn up, I want to see another couple of polls with her up before I worry about Tennessee...
Here are the current Real Clear Politics averages. The problem in Tennessee is that Bredesen was governor during a far less partisan time than today, and as a result of his party label he is getting linked to national names that are unpopular. The state is so red now that Blackburn can win even if a significant share of typically Republican voters support Bredesen ... and I expect that polls will reflect this more and more as Election Day draws closer.

(Not sure why they don't list Indiana - which is far more competitive than Wisconsin, for instance).

Missouri Hawley (R) +0.5
Tennessee Bredesen (D) +0.3
Florida Scott (R) +1.7
Montana Tester (D) +5.5
North Dakota Cramer (R) +1.6 Trending Up
Nevada Rosen (D) +1.3 Trending Up
Arizona McSally (R) +0.3 Trending Up
Texas Cruz (R) +3.2
West Virginia Manchin (D) +8.4
Wisconsin Baldwin (D) +8.0
Minnesota Smith (D) +8.4
New Jersey Menendez (D) +8.3
 
Old 09-13-2018, 01:01 AM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,304 posts, read 11,547,111 times
Reputation: 4317
Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
The polls are pretty mixed at this time, and certainly do not suggest a solid advantage for Democrats in some of the key states they need to pick up or hold to win a majority this year. They are going to need to demonstrate a strong performance (at least, strong relative to recent elections) in both metropolitan and rural areas, including some of the electorate that supported Trump and Congressional Republicans in 2016 and prior cycles.

I don't think flipping the Senate is completely a lost cause, but many people who are ready to place a check on the president via Democratic congressional majorities are underestimating how difficult this will be to achieve. The path this year runs through several states that are far less diverse, less urban, and more conservative than the nation at large. Most of the solid blue states where "The Resistance" is strongest already have two Democratic senators, so the party needs to look elsewhere for opportunities - and to play defense to avoid falling further behind.
I was responding specifically to the bold part that I highlighted in the previous post.

Democrats being clustered around cities in and of itself has nothing to do with winning Senate races .
 
Old 09-13-2018, 03:24 AM
 
435 posts, read 103,943 times
Reputation: 395
Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
Arizona: Sinema (D) 47-44
Indiana: Braun (R) 45-43
Missouri: McCaskill (D) 44-41
North Dakota: Cramer (R) 48-44
Tennessee: Blackburn (R) 47-44

It looks like competitive contests in these five red states - given the margins of error, there is little certainty of who is ahead in each race. AZ and TN are open R seats, while incumbent Ds are defending IN, MO and ND. Note there are many undecided or third party voters, in MO especially ... and they could break for either side in the end.
People don't really like Hawley here in Missouri. He is like Ted Cruz in that there is not a lot of passionate support for him and people don't really think he stands for anything. If things stay close, I think McCaskill will pull it out because of the motivation gap.

Based on what happened down in Florida with Gillum polling 4th and winning, I feel like the likely voter models they are using may be missing a lot of young and minority voters that don't usually turn out. They will be the key to all of the tight races. If they show up, watch out.
 
Old 09-13-2018, 06:38 AM
 
3,481 posts, read 5,111,527 times
Reputation: 1544
Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
Here are the current Real Clear Politics averages. The problem in Tennessee is that Bredesen was governor during a far less partisan time than today, and as a result of his party label he is getting linked to national names that are unpopular. The state is so red now that Blackburn can win even if a significant share of typically Republican voters support Bredesen ... and I expect that polls will reflect this more and more as Election Day draws closer.

(Not sure why they don't list Indiana - which is far more competitive than Wisconsin, for instance).

Missouri Hawley (R) +0.5
Tennessee Bredesen (D) +0.3
Florida Scott (R) +1.7
Montana Tester (D) +5.5
North Dakota Cramer (R) +1.6 Trending Up
Nevada Rosen (D) +1.3 Trending Up
Arizona McSally (R) +0.3 Trending Up
Texas Cruz (R) +3.2
West Virginia Manchin (D) +8.4
Wisconsin Baldwin (D) +8.0
Minnesota Smith (D) +8.4
New Jersey Menendez (D) +8.3
Blackburn's issues are she has never run a state wide race, never had to raise large amounts of money, & was elected in a very conservative district where she spouted the company line. This is a state wide race where Bredesen knows all the power players & has raised a lot of money compared to her. Bredesen also appeals to cross over voters as he has shown he is willing to put aside party politics in order to get stuff done. This was the first poll out of Tennessee other than the Gravis online poll showing Blackburn up, I've expected this race to tighten but to see her jump 5 points while not spending much money is very surprising.
 
Old 09-13-2018, 07:02 AM
 
15,371 posts, read 17,630,878 times
Reputation: 13496
Quote:
Originally Posted by cofor View Post

Based on what happened down in Florida with Gillum polling 4th and winning, I feel like the likely voter models they are using may be missing a lot of young and minority voters that don't usually turn out. They will be the key to all of the tight races. If they show up, watch out.
I sure hope this is the case but we won't know until election day or possibly the next day for the close races. I am still confused about the Gillum polls and end result. All the polls(there were many) had him in the teens and around 4th place but he ended up in the 30s and won. Did any pollster discuss why their numbers were off for the FL Gov D Primary?

Are there any details that show a spike in young voters over prior primaries in FL? Something major was off with the pollster's expected turnout where there was an unexpected spike. Was it young voters, minorities, people of all demographics that don't normally vote? What if all the polls around the states are off like this? It's confusing.
 
Old 09-13-2018, 01:02 PM
 
435 posts, read 103,943 times
Reputation: 395
Default I

Quote:
Originally Posted by sware2cod View Post
I sure hope this is the case but we won't know until election day or possibly the next day for the close races. I am still confused about the Gillum polls and end result. All the polls(there were many) had him in the teens and around 4th place but he ended up in the 30s and won. Did any pollster discuss why their numbers were off for the FL Gov D Primary?

Are there any details that show a spike in young voters over prior primaries in FL? Something major was off with the pollster's expected turnout where there was an unexpected spike. Was it young voters, minorities, people of all demographics that don't normally vote? What if all the polls around the states are off like this? It's confusing.
Yeah, I don't know. The number of Democratic primary voters in FL nearly doubled from the two previous gubernatorial primaries, but I can't find any hard information on who those new voters were.

I think it is safe to assume that the surge in Gillum voters didn't come from the older voters who normally vote in midterms though, otherwise the polls would have had him winning.

I just looked at the numbers behind St. Pete Polls which was one of the few polls that had Gillum performing higher. According to the poll, 1.8% of undecided voters had already voted, try to figure that one out.
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