Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The new statistics project that the nation will become “minority white” in 2045. During that year, whites will comprise 49.7 percent of the population in contrast to 24.6 percent for Hispanics, 13.1 percent for blacks, 7.9 percent for Asians, and 3.8 percent for multiracial populations.
In 1948 polling by demographics was not very advanced. Eisenhower captures 21% then 39% of the minority vote in 1952 and 1956. Nixon took 32% of the minority vote in 1960 against JFK. As JFK won the election by a barely perceptible 0.17% of the popular vote, the black, Mexican, and female vote was instrumental in getting him elected.
Then the bomb dropped with Barry Goldwater who voted against Civil Rights Act just weeks before the 1964 election. Goldwater only got 6% of the minority vote. In 1968 and 1972 Nixon received only 12% or 13% of the minority vote. He was the same man and the same party that ran in 1960.
By 2000 the "minority vote" was splintered into sub categories in poll reporting.
Ninety years ago the Democrats wouldn't even permit black people to come to the convention. So things can change.
Republican candidates usually don't win a majority of the Latino vote, either, but GW Bush got 35% for his second term.
Is there any scenario where a Republican candidate could get over 33% of the African American vote in the next two decades?
Theoretically, anything is possible. But blacks haven't voted Republican since before the New Deal. And, given the racial/identity politics of the Democrat Party, I don't expect this to change.
Having written all of that, the GOP doesn't need to win the black vote to lock the Dems out of power. No, merely getting 15% of the black vote while holding onto their core constituencies would ensure that the Dems never won the White House. One sign of hope in that direction has been the black male vote, which continues to inch up toward Republicans (I think 15% or so of black males voted for Trump . . . it was low single digits for black females, though).
The Black community has to ask themselves what the Dems have done for them.
It seems that the Democrats have cast aside minority groups in favor of the illegal aliens.
The Dems are pretty mum on black on black gun violence in the inner cities but what a stink they raise when a family from Guatemala tries to sneak into the country illegally and they are detained.
The on air crocodile tears fall like rain when a child is separated from their mom at the border but there is not even a mention when a black mothers child is mistakenly gunned down in a drive by.
If I was a black guy I would feel that the Democrat party has abandoned my people to champion for the Rights of people that are here illegally.
The Black community has to ask themselves what the Dems have done for them.
It seems that the Democrats have cast aside minority groups in favor of the illegal aliens.
The Dems are pretty mum on black on black gun violence in the inner cities but what a stink they raise when a family from Guatemala tries to sneak into the country illegally and they are detained.
The on air crocodile tears fall like rain when a child is separated from their mom at the border but there is not even a mention when a black mothers child is mistakenly gunned down in a drive by.
If I was a black guy I would feel that the Democrat party has abandoned my people to champion for the Rights of people that are here illegally.
So you would turn to the Republicans - a party almost exclusively of white men, with a long history of supporting segregation, led by a guy who can barely keep contain his racist sentiments towards, muslims, Mexicans, non-white foreigners (look up Trump comments on the Central Park jogger rape)??
There was 78 years between the first and second 20th/21st century Republican black congressmen elected
1928/1930/1932 Oscar Stanton De Priest: Illinois's 1st
2010 Tim Scott: South Carolina's 1st
There were six black Democratic congressmen elected after Oscar Stanton De Priest and before 1964
Arthur W. Mitchell: Illinois's 1st (elected 4 times)
William L. Dawson: Illinois's 1st (elected 14 times)
Adam Clayton Powell Jr.: New York's 22nd, 16th, and 18th (elected 13 times)
Charles Diggs: Michigan's 13th (elected 13 times)
Robert N. C. Nix Sr.: Pennsylvania's 4th, 2nd (elected 11 times)
Augustus F. Hawkins: California's 21st, 29th (elected 14 times)
Barry Goldwater's 1964 opposition to the Civil Rights Act, does not seem to have been motivated by any deep rooted racist feelings, just his sense of state's rights. In any event the political sensibilities of a man born 110 years ago shouldn't characterize a political party forever.
Quote:
Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident
Theoretically, anything is possible. But blacks haven't voted Republican since before the New Deal. And, given the racial/identity politics of the Democrat Party, I don't expect this to change.
I don't mean majority vote. I just mean over 30%. Look at Nixon's three elections. His share of minority vote dropped from 32% to 12%. His personal demeanor and policies could not have changed that radically in 8 years. It was the relationship between the black voters and the Republican party.
So you would turn to the Republicans - a party almost exclusively of white men, with a long history of supporting segregation, led by a guy who can barely keep contain his racist sentiments towards, muslims, Mexicans, non-white foreigners (look up Trump comments on the Central Park jogger rape)??
His sentiments are left wide open for interpretation. He has dated black women and has a lot of black colleagues.
We own business, work hard, and have bills to pay. That's the real deal. So far, that cuts across all lines. He's given such good business breaks that I am a bit nervous about voting against him right now and I didn't vote for him in the first place.
Despite all the rhetoric, Americans care about money, all Americans because money buys our health and well being. Period. They will vote accordingly, doesn't matter who it is.
If the economy continues this way, and we benefit then yes, I think it's possible. Illegal immigration plays a part for me as well, but that also comes down to money.
Barry Goldwater's 1964 opposition to the Civil Rights Act, does not seem to have been motivated by any deep rooted racist feelings, just his sense of state's rights. In any event the political sensibilities of a man born 110 years ago shouldn't characterize a political party forever.
I don't think the poster meant that it locked the AA vote in for eternity but that that was a turning point. It would be similar to Governor Wilson in California turning that from a swing state to solid D with the one blip being Shwarzenegger. Similarly Bill Clinton and the early 90's redrawn congressional maps/congressional retirements to keep the campaign loot in the Congressmen's pockets opened up a rash of Southern seats to Republicans that never swung back.
It is sometimes just a matter of finally breaking voters away from a party they were voting for more out of loyalty than compatibility. We saw that in 2016 when Trump won those final three rustbelt states and Clinton improved Dem totals with suburban voters. Often times once you break those folks out of a pattern they are not easy to recover.
I think one thing that really hurts R candidates with many AA voters is the rhetoric of a lot of the talking heads on the right. They may not represent the rank and file Republican but they turn a lot of AA voters off.
Hopefully, more introspective and foresighted Afro-Americans will be drawn to a libertarian, or Classical Liberal (Voltaire, Locke, et. al.) orientation.
Last edited by 2nd trick op; 09-26-2018 at 02:29 PM..
So you would turn to the Republicans - a party almost exclusively of white men, with a long history of supporting segregation, led by a guy who can barely keep contain his racist sentiments towards, muslims, Mexicans, non-white foreigners (look up Trump comments on the Central Park jogger rape)??
Incorrect. Segregation and Tom Crow where 100% the domain of the Democrat party.
Every KKK member in the South were Democrats.
It was the Democrat Party here in NC that kept interracial marriages illegal until the 1970s and only when the SC deemed it unconstitutional.
Incorrect. Segregation and Tom Crow where 100% the domain of the Democrat party.
Every KKK member in the South were Democrats.
It was the Democrat Party here in NC that kept interracial marriages illegal until the 1970s and only when the SC deemed it unconstitutional.
Republicans never had anything to do with that.
Historically, Republicans appeal to those of us who know what we have to lose; Democrats appeal to those perceived as losers seeking something to loot, at the expense of those the Leftist ideologues seek to vilify. It pretty much has come down to that.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
