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Old 09-28-2018, 07:22 PM
 
11,988 posts, read 5,291,593 times
Reputation: 7284

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The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC associated with the Republican House Leadership, has cut off funding for 2 house incumbents that are trailing in their bid for re-election.

1. Mike Bishop R-MI
2. Mike Coffman R-CO


Quote:
”The super PAC will cancel its planned TV advertising for both members, a move that comes as the party refocuses its funds on races that leaders feel confident they can win — and away from those it sees as out of reach. The organization had $1 million in TV advertising reserved for Coffman and $2.1 million for Bishop, dollars that will now be redistributed elsewhere.”

... Privately, GOP strategists concede that as many as a dozen of the party’s seats are no longer winnable — half of the margin Democrats need to take back the House.

Among the seats that the party feels increasingly pessimistic about are those held by Minnesota Reps. Erik Paulsen and Jason Lewis, Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock, and Iowa Rep. Rod Blum.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...n-house-853036

Cook Political lists a dozen R seats in which the Democrat is now favored. Coffman was among them, but they still have Bishop listed as a tossup.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...e-race-ratings

The painful decisions of triage, or cutting loose the ones that can’t be saved to divert money to those that still can be have begun. They’re defending too many vulnerable seats to spend millions on every one when they’re behind.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 09-28-2018 at 07:39 PM..
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Old 09-29-2018, 09:24 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,184 posts, read 19,455,621 times
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The Coffman seat isn't a surprise. It is a Democratic trending district Trump lost by 9 points and has been likely Dem. The Bishop one I am a bit surprised about. Trump won the district by a little under 7 points, and pretty much everyone had this as a tossup. Internal polling was likely looking pretty poor.
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Old 09-29-2018, 09:38 AM
 
11,988 posts, read 5,291,593 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
The Coffman seat isn't a surprise. It is a Democratic trending district Trump lost by 9 points and has been likely Dem. The Bishop one I am a bit surprised about. Trump won the district by a little under 7 points, and pretty much everyone had this as a tossup. Internal polling was likely looking pretty poor.
Another R pack is still funding Bishop, but this definitely was a shock. There’s 12 R seats that are basically “dead man walking” but based upon public polls, Bishop is still competitive.
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Old 09-29-2018, 11:16 AM
Status: "everybody getting reported now.." (set 20 days ago)
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,549 posts, read 16,535,254 times
Reputation: 6032
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Another R pack is still funding Bishop, but this definitely was a shock. There’s 12 R seats that are basically “dead man walking” but based upon public polls, Bishop is still competitive.
It will be interesting to see an in-depth poll on the Michigan district .

Heck, the fact that they even released a statement after a pac takes away money looks bad enough, but to release a poll where you are only up 2 ....

My guess is that in that internal poll, they used a turnout model equal to that of 2010, but in the other models, they are down by a lot .
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Old 09-30-2018, 12:27 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,184 posts, read 19,455,621 times
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The NRCC is pulling canceling an ad by for Kevin Yoder in KS-03. The district is a swing district in the Kansas City area. Yoder won it in the GOP wave in 2010. Republicans made it a few ticks more Republican with redistricting following 2010, but swung Democratic in 2016. Romney won it by 8 in 2012, Clinton by 1 in 2016

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...-yoder-ad-buys
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Old 09-30-2018, 02:52 PM
 
11,988 posts, read 5,291,593 times
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Cook Political Report is still listing KS-3 (Yoder) and MI-8 (Bishop) as tossups.

They list 13 current R seats as either leaning or likely Democratic:

Likely D: NJ-02 (Open), PA-05 (Vacant), PA-06 (Open)
Leaning D: AZ-02 (Open), CA-49 (Open), CO-06 (Coffman), IA-01 (Blum), MN-02 (Lewis), MN-03 (Paulsen), NJ-11 (Open), PA-07 (Vacant), PA-17 (Rothfus), VA-10 (Comstock)

One current D seat is rated likely R: PA-14 (Open)

Turning to tossup seats: 29 Republican seats to 2 Democratic seats

Total number of seats potentially vulnerable ( rated less than safe): R= 93; D= 13

https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...e-race-ratings

Total of D gains needed to flip control: 23

Last edited by Bureaucat; 09-30-2018 at 03:32 PM..
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Old 10-01-2018, 02:16 PM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
25,826 posts, read 20,697,090 times
Reputation: 14818
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC associated with the Republican House Leadership, has cut off funding for 2 house incumbents that are trailing in their bid for re-election.

1. Mike Bishop R-MI
2. Mike Coffman R-CO




https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...n-house-853036

Cook Political lists a dozen R seats in which the Democrat is now favored. Coffman was among them, but they still have Bishop listed as a tossup.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...e-race-ratings

The painful decisions of triage, or cutting loose the ones that can’t be saved to divert money to those that still can be have begun. They’re defending too many vulnerable seats to spend millions on every one when they’re behind.
Ouch!

Coffman represents my district.
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Old 10-01-2018, 02:20 PM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
25,826 posts, read 20,697,090 times
Reputation: 14818
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
The Coffman seat isn't a surprise. It is a Democratic trending district Trump lost by 9 points and has been likely Dem. The Bishop one I am a bit surprised about. Trump won the district by a little under 7 points, and pretty much everyone had this as a tossup. Internal polling was likely looking pretty poor.
I live in his district and I’m surprised. He won his 2016 race in a veritable landslide despite CO, and the district, going for Clinton.
I guess the internal polling shows a bigger lead than I’ve seen reported.
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Old 10-01-2018, 08:02 PM
 
52,431 posts, read 26,615,791 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC associated with the Republican House Leadership, has cut off funding for 2 house incumbents that are trailing in their bid for re-election.

1. Mike Bishop R-MI
2. Mike Coffman R-CO

"Anonymous Sources" story = Fake News


Not one shred of proof given that any of it's true, and we already know that Politico shills for the Democrats.
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Old 10-01-2018, 08:13 PM
Status: "everybody getting reported now.." (set 20 days ago)
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,549 posts, read 16,535,254 times
Reputation: 6032
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
"Anonymous Sources" story = Fake News


Not one shred of proof given that any of it's true, and we already know that Politico shills for the Democrats.
the source isnt anonymous, and the CLF released a statement that is in the link.
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