Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 10-03-2018, 05:37 PM
 
11,989 posts, read 5,271,831 times
Reputation: 7284

Advertisements

Quote:
It’s becoming harder and harder to see Republicans’ path to holding the majority. In the past few days, multiple Democrats challengers have announced staggering fundraising totals of more than $3 million during the third quarter of the year, exceeding what many predecessors have raised for an entire cycle. One high-ranking Republican worries his party could be ‘buried under an avalanche’ of Democratic money that GOP outside groups can’t match.”

“After today’s ratings changes, there are 15 GOP-held seats in Lean or Likely Democratic (including seven incumbents) and Democrats would only need to win 11 of the 31 races in the Toss Up column to flip the majority. There’s still time for political conditions to change, but today the likeliest outcome appears to be a Democratic gain of between 25 and 40 seats (they need 23 for House control).”
Eight changes in ratings, with the R incumbent downgraded in all of them.

FL-26: Carlos Curbelo (R) - Lean R to Toss Up ←
KS-03: Kevin Yoder (R) - Toss Up to Lean D ←
MI-03: Justin Amash (R) - Solid R to Likely R ←
MI-11: OPEN (Trott)(R) - Toss Up to Lean D ←
NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R) - Solid R to Likely R ←
NY-24: John Katko (R) - Likely R to Lean R ←
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R) - Lean D to Likely D ←
UT-04: Mia Love (R) - Lean R to Toss Up ←

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analys...ards-democrats

https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...e-race-ratings

Here’s their breakdown of the total number of seats on the board as less than completely safe:

Democratic seats = 13
Republican seats = 95
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 10-05-2018, 02:57 AM
 
10,875 posts, read 13,789,072 times
Reputation: 4896
It's good to see even once unheard of changing seats looking to go blue.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-05-2018, 05:54 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,772 posts, read 104,447,648 times
Reputation: 49248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Eight changes in ratings, with the R incumbent downgraded in all of them.

FL-26: Carlos Curbelo (R) - Lean R to Toss Up ←
KS-03: Kevin Yoder (R) - Toss Up to Lean D ←
MI-03: Justin Amash (R) - Solid R to Likely R ←
MI-11: OPEN (Trott)(R) - Toss Up to Lean D ←
NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R) - Solid R to Likely R ←
NY-24: John Katko (R) - Likely R to Lean R ←
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R) - Lean D to Likely D ←
UT-04: Mia Love (R) - Lean R to Toss Up ←

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analys...ards-democrats

https://www.cookpolitical.com/rating...e-race-ratings

Here’s their breakdown of the total number of seats on the board as less than completely safe:

Democratic seats = 13
Republican seats = 95
check a few other polls in the past couple of days. The polls are changing daily or more by the hour. Will the republicans lose some seats?Of course they will. this is to be expected in the off years. It almost always happens. will they lose the house? most likely not and they will hold onto he senate most likely.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-05-2018, 06:34 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,157 posts, read 19,402,277 times
Reputation: 5285
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
check a few other polls in the past couple of days. The polls are changing daily or more by the hour. Will the republicans lose some seats?Of course they will. this is to be expected in the off years. It almost always happens. will they lose the house? most likely not and they will hold onto he senate most likely.
I agree with you on the Senate, but I think the Democrats have an excellent shot at taking over the House.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-05-2018, 07:26 AM
 
11,989 posts, read 5,271,831 times
Reputation: 7284
There was an interesting story in the NYT on McConnell’s strategy ofplaying hardball on the Kavanaugh nomination. The gist of it was that the Republicans are reading the tea leaves and know that they have already lost the House. With that calculation, losing more suburban college white women is less important than stirring up the base. They’ll lose the House but they’ll control the Supremes for a generation and it might gain a Senate seat or two.

In a sign that the battle for suburbia is trending hard against the GOP, polls of the California battleground districts were released today. Of 8 battleground districts, the D leads in 5, the R in 2 and one is dead even. Those trailing include Denham in CA-10, Knight in CA-25, Kim in CA-39, Walters CA-45 and Harley in CA-49. Rohrabacher is tied in the 48th. Duncan Hunter has a 2 point lead in the 50th.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-05-2018, 08:03 AM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,470 posts, read 16,449,350 times
Reputation: 5975
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
check a few other polls in the past couple of days. The polls are changing daily or more by the hour. Will the republicans lose some seats?Of course they will. this is to be expected in the off years. It almost always happens. will they lose the house? most likely not and they will hold onto he senate most likely.
Where are you getting your numbers from to claim most likely not ?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-05-2018, 08:16 AM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,470 posts, read 16,449,350 times
Reputation: 5975
Dmes currently lead in every poll for

AZ-2
CA 49
CO-6
FL-27
IA- 1
IA-2
KS-3
MI-11
MN-2
MN-3
NJ-2
NJ-3
NJ- 11
NY-19
NY-22
NC-9
PA-5
PA-6
PA-7
PA-17
VA-10


That's 21, right there were democrats have either never trailed or haven't been behind for at least a month now. There are other districts not included like the many in California, Florida and Texas that I didn't even include because there is only 1 poll out for the entire cycle.

its more likely of a Democratic win in the House than a Republican one at this point.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-05-2018, 08:27 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,157 posts, read 19,402,277 times
Reputation: 5285
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
There was an interesting story in the NYT on McConnell’s strategy ofplaying hardball on the Kavanaugh nomination. The gist of it was that the Republicans are reading the tea leaves and know that they have already lost the House. With that calculation, losing more suburban college white women is less important than stirring up the base. They’ll lose the House but they’ll control the Supremes for a generation and it might gain a Senate seat or two.

In a sign that the battle for suburbia is trending hard against the GOP, polls of the California battleground districts were released today. Of 8 battleground districts, the D leads in 5, the R in 2 and one is dead even. Those trailing include Denham in CA-10, Knight in CA-25, Kim in CA-39, Walters CA-45 and Harley in CA-49. Rohrabacher is tied in the 48th. Duncan Hunter has a 2 point lead in the 50th.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
I would generally agree with this. Right now we are seeing a growing suburban vs rural divide (especially educated suburbs)

This divide helps the GOP in the Senate, but will hurt them in the House. The Republicans don't have that much room for growth in rural House districts despite its strong GOP trend because they already hold the vast majority of them. On the flip side there are quite a few educated suburban districts in which the GOP still holds, but are trending Democratic many of which Trump either lost in or narrowly won in. These are the districts control of the House is going to come down to.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-05-2018, 08:49 AM
 
Location: Florida
7,195 posts, read 5,706,859 times
Reputation: 12337
I don't really understand the point of closely following these polls. The only one that counts takes place in one month. The bottom line is that everything is very close and that everyone needs to get out and vote if they want their voice heard. That's really all there is to it.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-05-2018, 11:06 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,772 posts, read 104,447,648 times
Reputation: 49248
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
Dmes currently lead in every poll for

AZ-2
CA 49
CO-6
FL-27
IA- 1
IA-2
KS-3
MI-11
MN-2
MN-3
NJ-2
NJ-3
NJ- 11
NY-19
NY-22
NC-9
PA-5
PA-6
PA-7
PA-17
VA-10


That's 21, right there were democrats have either never trailed or haven't been behind for at least a month now. There are other districts not included like the many in California, Florida and Texas that I didn't even include because there is only 1 poll out for the entire cycle.

its more likely of a Democratic win in the House than a Republican one at this point.
first of all in order to flip the house it would take 24 and you are talking 21 at best. That in itself indicates it will be pretty tough for the Dems to take over. No one is saying it won't or can't happen, but it is still a long shot. You are also throwing in there seats that are favored by 1 o2 %. Normally anything less than 4% is considered a toss up.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:49 AM.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top