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Great forecasts! But I predict the Democrats underestimate the power of the Trump influence, and there is not much of a blue wave (as anticipated).
I think the true "surprise" to come Wednesday morning, is that the House and Senate are held by the GOP.
Here are my predictions below.
House:
Dems gain, but not enough to overtake the house.
Republicans maintain control, 223 GOP to Dems GOP 212.
Senate:
Arizona: Republicans win--Martha McSally by 2 points
Florida: Republicans win--Bill Nelson loses to Scott by 3 points.
Indiana: Republicans win--Joe Donnelly loses his seat to Braun.
Missouri: McCaskill loses by 3 points to Hawley.
Montana: Jon Tester fends off a challenge from Matt Rosendale thanks to his personal popularity with a margin of 2 points.
North Dakota: A definite win for the GOP candidate, Rep. Kevin Cramer by at least ten points
New Jersey: Bob Menendez manages to hold onto his seat, but only with about a 2-3 point margin.
Nevada: GOP Sen. Dean Heller keeps his seat by about a 2-3 point margin.
Tennessee: Republican win--Blackburn by 5 points.
Texas: GOP gets this one--Cruz wins easily by 6 points.
Governors:
Florida: Andrew Gillum loses by 5 points.
Georgia: Kemp by two points.
What he said!!! Wow....great minds must think alike.
I think democrats will take over the house and republicans will retain the senate. I find it fascinating that more women are running for office then ever before. And we’ve never had this record number voting in the midterms.
There are three possible scenarios that I see..
1. Republicans lose house and keep senate, which is the most likely scenario and the most dangerous for the nation actually. If Dems win the House, they cut off funding for Trump's agenda and go after his nefarious deals while president.
They'll also go after all his tax returns and open up the Russian collusion investigation for all to see.
This is the most dangerous scenario of all as Trump will never accept being a loser. He's already used the US Military for his own political purposes, claimed an invasion is coming, branded the governor candidate for Florida a thief for no reason. Trump has shown he's capable of tearing up the rule book and doing whatever he wants. The S#iT will hit the fan if he loses the house and the Dems go after him. He'll most likely start a war as a distraction from the heat on him.
2. The Dems take the house and the senate. Best case scenario for the nation. If Dems take both, republicans will realize they no longer have a national mandate under Trump and will start to desert him to save their own political careers. Nothing short of that will give them a spine.
3. Trumplicans keep both houses and the status quo is preserved. You think there was some weird s#it happening from the white house this last two years, just wait and see what Trump and the Trumplicans have in store for the nation the next two years. They will have a mandate and all the gloves come off.
This election, no matter how it turns out will not be the magic bullet for our nation like many are counting on.
I think the first scenario is a disaster for Dems. Nobody is going to want to sit around and watch them go after Trump for 2 years and get nothing else accomplished. They do that they’ll be wiped off the map in 2020
I think the first scenario is a disaster for Dems. Nobody is going to want to sit around and watch them go after Trump for 2 years and get nothing else accomplished. They do that they’ll be wiped off the map in 2020
I believe republicans losing the house will actually lead to trump holding the White House come 2020. If republicans good the house their will be a lot of built up pressure in 2020 that will be hard to overcome for trump.
I believe republicans losing the house will actually lead to trump holding the White House come 2020. If republicans good the house their will be a lot of built up pressure in 2020 that will be hard to overcome for trump.
It’s the same reason I feel Gillum winning Florida will lead to a Trump win there in 2020z. Much like if DeSantis wins it has the opposite effect
I think people are remembering incorrectly the polls from 2016. They weren’t nearly as off as everyone recalls. The popular vote was close and a few states had margins swing within the error potential which led to the outcome changing. In order for the Republicans to hold the house tomorrow there would have to be some sort of cataclysmic polling error across the board like we’ve never seen
I think people are remembering incorrectly the polls from 2016. They weren’t nearly as off as everyone recalls. The popular vote was close and a few states had margins swing within the error potential which led to the outcome changing. In order for the Republicans to hold the house tomorrow there would have to be some sort of cataclysmic polling error across the board like we’ve never seen
I'm expecting to see just that. With this many people voting, the pollsters are overwhelmed.
My prediction is there will be no consensus on which party won. both parties will claim victory and say the other party is lying. Both the house and senate will continue to act like a bunch of ninnies and get nothing done and Trump will continue to do a few things here and there while saying really stupid things on twitter.
The real impact of this election will be nothing at all.
A reminder, Nate Silver is not a pollster, he's taking results of other polls and applying statistical modelling. This puts their prediction of a Democratic controlled House at 88% and a Democratic Senate up to almost 1 in 5 - obviously not great odds on the Senate side, but it's not out of the question. It really all depends on turnout today and which side gets more people to the polls, vs. whether one side in particular did well in early voting by cannibalizing votes that would have otherwise been cast today.
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