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If the much heralded "Blue Wave" turns out to not happen, you can bet the Precious Little Snowflakes will have an absolute hysterical meltdown. THAT would be far, far more entertaining than anything Comedy Central could ever dream up.
One (highly unlikely...but still very very remote longshot chance) possible Black Swan event would be John Cox winning the CA governors race.
The Left will go absolutely bananas if that happens.
Like I said.....I don't think it likely, but he does have at least some support. Particularly among those who have traditionally voted Democrat and even they have had enough of Gov Browns profligate spending (and loss of take home pay) with little or nothing to show for it.
I believe the Republicans will take both the House and the Senate and there will be some upsets in their favor at the gubernatorial level as well.
Unless you live, like I do, in an area that was always so predictably Blue but has changed so drastically in the past few years towards the Right, it may not seem like that will happen, but I have been around for a while and I have never seen anything like this before. My town, a bastion of auto workers and other blue collar types, is on fire for Trump and the Republicans in general. It really is. I think the illegal immigration issue, which the Dems used to stand just as firmly on until something happened in the past five years or so, is what is swaying so many people. They don't want their tax dollars paying for people who have no right to be here and will live on the bounty of our government if and when they are allowed in.
With one day left, here are my educated predictions on the final outcome tomorrow:
House:
Democrats take back the House with a SMALL majority. I'm thinking somehwere around 225 Dems-210 GOP.
Senate:
Arizona: Martha McSally within one point.
Florida: Bill Nelson holds onto his seat by a somewhat comfortable margin of around 5 points.
Indiana: Joe Donnelly holds onto his seat but just barely.
Minnesota special: Tina Smith retains her seat by 5-10 points.
Missouri: Another Dem hold, Claire McCaskill holds onto her seat with a margin of less than one percent.
Montana: Jon Tester fends off a challenge from Matt Rosendale thanks to his personal popularity with a margin of about 5 points.
North Dakota: A definite win for the GOP candidate, Rep. Kevin Cramer by at least ten points.
New Jersey: Bob Menendez manages to hold onto his seat, but only with about a 2-3 point margin.
Nevada: GOP Sen. Dean Heller keeps his seat by about a 2-3 point margin.
Tennessee: Phil Bredesen wins by a point.
Texas: I predict this will be the night's major upset and O'Rourke will defeat Ted Cruz thanks to the massive surge in the youth and Latino vote and independents. It will swing back and forth throughout the night and will be called after midnight, with O'Rourke winning by one point or less.
Final count: 50-50. Mike Pence casts the tiebreaking vote as President of the Senate, therefore GOP maintains control.
Governors:
Florida: Andrew Gillum by about four points.
Georgia: Stacey Abrams by about two points.
Wisconsin: Tony Evers by about six points.
The House will be between 3-4 seats either way for the majority and Repubs pick up 3 Senate seats.
GOP picks up Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, South Dakota
Toss Ups Lean GOP - W. Virginia (I think West Virginia is tired of Manchin voting the Schumer tells him)
Toss Up - Nevada
Outside Chance - Michigan - John James
Outside Shocker - New Jersey (internal polls say Melendez is in real trouble)
GOP Holds (which are really MAGA pick-ups) Tennessee & Arizona (Corker & Flake = NeverTrump)
Texas
House - I won't go into each race, but I believe GOP will stay the Majority.
The California pick-up for the Left will fall short.
Now then -- all of that is pretty much opposite what the Experts are telling us. Those same Experts told us Donald Trump would NEVER be President & Hillary was a Guaranteed win. Those same Experts (and polls) said Rick Scott would lose all his previous elections by double digits -- and then he won.
Polling hasn't changed since then - in fact, it's gotten worse. Early voting is UP in just about all States and off the wall in several (like Texas) - the trend in most of these Senate Race seats is + or ++GOP. In Nevada its about equal (why I put that one a Toss Up. My Early Vote information comes from a DNC website (which I've posted several times) - Women vote is pretty equal when you dig down - Left tells us the "women vote is the Blue Wall" and that is not what the Early vote says in most states.
Polls use weighting and models - for this Mid-Term Election, they are using 2014 as their model.
They assume anyone who is black WILL vote for the Democrats -- I don't think that's true.
They are also assuming that the Independent Vote will go to the Democrats - I don't think that's true either. House Seats are more closely tied to their District - I haven't done a close study on them -- BUT the same polls that predict this Blue Wave (which the Data does not support) are saying the House seats will flip BLUE (and some will), but not enough. IF the President's popularity is up in a State, it's more likely the House Red incumbent will win. Exception is California - at least 5 or more of those Red Seats remain RED and Nancy promised ALL of them would go BLUE.
We won't know California, Oregon or Colorado results for at least a couple of weeks - all mail in.
Bottom line -- I don't believe the Polls, I don't believe the Media. I heard 2 pollsters say the same thing yesterday on the public polls. Internal Polls are more correct and we don't know what they say.
I didn't in 2016 and I don't in 2018. I was correct in 2016 -- we will know tomorrow if I'm correct again.
While I would love that, not going to happen save for a 50-50 Senate.
No president with Trumps approval rating has ever gained Senate seats in their first midterm. A surprise win by Bredesen or even Beto is not completely out of the cards...though admitedly its a long shot. But then again...so was the AL Senate race
GOP picks up Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, South Dakota
Toss Ups Lean GOP - W. Virginia (I think West Virginia is tired of Manchin voting the Schumer tells him)
Toss Up - Nevada
Outside Chance - Michigan - John James
Outside Shocker - New Jersey (internal polls say Melendez is in real trouble)
GOP Holds (which are really MAGA pick-ups) Tennessee & Arizona (Corker & Flake = NeverTrump)
Texas
House - I won't go into each race, but I believe GOP will stay the Majority.
The California pick-up for the Left will fall short.
Now then -- all of that is pretty much opposite what the Experts are telling us. Those same Experts told us Donald Trump would NEVER be President & Hillary was a Guaranteed win. Those same Experts (and polls) said Rick Scott would lose all his previous elections by double digits -- and then he won.
Polling hasn't changed since then - in fact, it's gotten worse. Early voting is UP in just about all States and off the wall in several (like Texas) - the trend in most of these Senate Race seats is + or ++GOP. In Nevada its about equal (why I put that one a Toss Up. My Early Vote information comes from a DNC website (which I've posted several times) - Women vote is pretty equal when you dig down - Left tells us the "women vote is the Blue Wall" and that is not what the Early vote says in most states.
Polls use weighting and models - for this Mid-Term Election, they are using 2014 as their model.
They assume anyone who is black WILL vote for the Democrats -- I don't think that's true.
They are also assuming that the Independent Vote will go to the Democrats - I don't think that's true either. House Seats are more closely tied to their District - I haven't done a close study on them -- BUT the same polls that predict this Blue Wave (which the Data does not support) are saying the House seats will flip BLUE (and some will), but not enough. IF the President's popularity is up in a State, it's more likely the House Red incumbent will win. Exception is California - at least 5 or more of those Red Seats remain RED and Nancy promised ALL of them would go BLUE. We won't know California, Oregon or Colorado results for at least a couple of weeks - all mail in.
Bottom line -- I don't believe the Polls, I don't believe the Media. I heard 2 pollsters say the same thing yesterday on the public polls. Internal Polls are more correct and we don't know what they say.
I didn't in 2016 and I don't in 2018. I was correct in 2016 -- we will know tomorrow if I'm correct again.
Not true for Colorado. The vast majority of ballots are returned to drop boxes, not mailed, and even if they're placed in drop boxes on election day, the ballots will be counted promptly along with those that are filled out in person at polling places. Unless the races are very, very tight, we'll know who was elected either on election night or the following morning.
Here is an excellent video reviewing the 2016 predictions up to election day. It is a must see:
Just something to keep in mind as we consider the predictions leading up to the 2018 election tomorrow.
Its not going to happen again. Trumpsters are sadly being lied to and deluded by a life long con man who used to pretend he built buildings, take deposits for them, then bail on the buyers while keeping their deposits and not building anything.
Now hes going to do that to his supporters and the GOP
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