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Old 11-19-2018, 06:10 PM
 
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.....and now with Salt Lake County updating this evening, McAdams is in the lead again by 739 votes. Hmmm he is holding a press conference at 630 mst.

https://fox13now.com/2018/11/19/mcad...district-race/
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Old 11-19-2018, 06:26 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,172 posts, read 19,437,912 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by latimeria View Post
.....and now with Salt Lake County updating this evening, McAdams is in the lead again by 739 votes. Hmmm he is holding a press conference at 630 mst.

https://fox13now.com/2018/11/19/mcad...district-race/
Looks like McAdams have this, only a handful of votes remain.
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Old 11-19-2018, 06:40 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Looks like McAdams have this, only a handful of votes remain.
McAdams leads by a scant 739 votes with very few votes outstanding. Certification of results is to start on Tuesday. I’m not sure if that means tomorrow or next week.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics...n-update-utah/

Also, the last targeted seat in California is getting really close. Republican David Valadao now leads in CA-21 by only 930 votes. All of the other 6 targets Republican seats have fallen. CNN called Valadao the winner days ago, but it’s going down to the wire. CA-21 is one of three districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 that were carried by a Republican Congressman in 2018 or whether the Republican is leading.

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/polit...221926680.html

Nate Silver has raised his estimate of Democratic House gains to 40 seats.

https://fivethirtyeight.com

Last edited by Bureaucat; 11-19-2018 at 08:09 PM..
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Old 11-19-2018, 06:44 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
McAdams leads by a scant 739 votes with very few votes outstanding. Certification of results is to start on Tuesday. I’m not sure of that means tomorrow or next week.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics...n-update-utah/

Also, the last targeted seat in California is getting really close. Republican David Valadao now leads in CA-21 by only 930 votes. All of the other 6 targets Republican seats have fallen. CNN called Valadao the winner days ago, but it’s going down to the wire.

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/polit...221926680.html

Nate Silver has raised his estimate of Democratic House gains to 40 seats.

https://fivethirtyeight.com
It's tomorrow, so likely him. Wait and see what they say officially then, I guess.
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Old 11-20-2018, 08:14 AM
 
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So the big question is if Utah tries to dilute/split SLC further after the 2020 census to try to maintain all R seats. Or if they make SLC a Dem sinkhole to prevent any of the other districts from swaying between 2020 and 2030.
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Old 11-20-2018, 10:22 AM
 
Location: Home is Where You Park It
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Originally Posted by mrpeatie View Post
So the big question is if Utah tries to dilute/split SLC further after the 2020 census to try to maintain all R seats. Or if they make SLC a Dem sinkhole to prevent any of the other districts from swaying between 2020 and 2030.
In the past, the legislature has drawn the districts. But it looks like there will be an independent commission doing it from now on - https://ballotpedia.org/Utah_Proposi...itiative_(2018)
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Old 11-20-2018, 12:36 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
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The recount is completed, and McAdams was declared the winner unofficially by the voting commission. I haven't heard of Love conceding, and she may not, but it now looks like the official announcement will come soon, possibly as soon as today.
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Old 11-20-2018, 04:31 PM
 
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Originally Posted by banjomike View Post
The recount is completed, and McAdams was declared the winner unofficially by the voting commission. I haven't heard of Love conceding, and she may not, but it now looks like the official announcement will come soon, possibly as soon as today.
McAdams won by margin of 694 votes. Love would have had to cut the margin to 673 or less to force an automatic recount.

This is net Democratic House pickup #39.
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Old 11-20-2018, 06:35 PM
 
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Default Mia Love is History

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
McAdams won by margin of 694 votes. Love would have had to cut the margin to 673 or less to force an automatic recount.

This is net Democratic House pickup #39.
The pickup of this seat is much more impressive than most people think. Much more so than the 694 vote victory margin would seem to indicate. Utah is a heavily conservative state and the state legislature gerrymandered four congressional districts with the idea of keeping all four in republican hands. The districts are not compact and were drawn to make certain conservative rural pockets existed in every district. District Four includes much of Utah county which is heavily conservative. Some call it the most republican county in the United States. It was deliberately matched against Salt Lake County which is a politically moderate area of the state. In fact, gerrymandering was on the ballot in Utah this year. The voters narrowly approved an initiative that will take redistricting powers away from the legislature and give them to an independent commission.

This year, the best plans of the republican legislature were foiled due to a heavy vote turnout and the unpopularity of the president.

Congratulations Congressman McAdams!

What blue wave? Try 39 going on 40 seats right now in the House.
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Old 11-20-2018, 06:52 PM
 
Location: Clyde Hill, WA
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To beat an incumbent GOP in Utah is pretty impressive. I would have never guessed it. I'm guessing Mia Love will probably try her luck again in 2020.
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