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Justice Roberts has moved to the left. He cannot be counted on to side with the conservatives.
Mostly he sides with conservatives, but we have seen a big shift, in the last several key votes, towards the conservative, Strict Constitutionalist POV.
Janus & the Colorado Baker go the liberal way if HRC fills the Gorsuch & Kavanaugh seats with her picks.
We've only just begun, as those 2 each have 3 decades more, minimum, of SC jurisprudence left to give.
2 SC appointments, one a swing SC associate, will not occur again.
Given demographics of the court, it will remain a conservative/Strict Constitutionalist plurality for decades to come.
MAGA
Kennedy wasn't as swingy as people would like to believe.
Roberts and Kavanagh don't appear to be chart-topping conservative either. (In fairness, I'm guessing that Breyer and possibly even Kagan aren't chart-topping liberals as well.)
Trump thus far has only maintained what was already a 5-4 conservative majority. If he wins 2020, RBG will likely retire, and we'll go to a 6-3 majority. In fact Breyer is 80, and if he were to leave it would go to 7-2. Now that would truly be transformational for decades to come.
Even when GOP had the trifecta from 2017-19, Congress was largely do-nothing. No wall, no concealed-carry reciprocity, etc. The 'progress' on the right has tended to come from the courts--Heller decision, Janus decision, etc.
Trump thus far has only maintained what was already a 5-4 conservative majority. If he wins 2020, RBG will likely retire, and we'll go to a 6-3 majority. In fact Breyer is 80, and if he were to leave it would go to 7-2. Now that would truly be transformational for decades to come.
Even when GOP had the trifecta from 2017-19, Congress was largely do-nothing. No wall, no concealed-carry reciprocity, etc. The 'progress' on the right has tended to come from the courts--Heller decision, Janus decision, etc.
5 is all it takes. 6 and 7 are just pile ons.
Key is to get the 5th.
Our 2 newest are so YOUTHFUL, the 2040 POTUS will be dealing with them, also.
None of the more conservative justices are particularly old at this point, but Thomas is 70 and not in very good shape. If he steps down during a future Democratic presidency, his replacement is likely to be less conservative (even if McConnell or his successor has the power to leave the seat open until they get another Republican president). But if Trump gets even one more appointment, that pretty much guarantees a conservative Supreme Court for many years to come. Maybe the Democratic electorate will understand the stakes better in the future than they did in 2016.
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