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My guess is: his chance of getting the nomination are no better than 50/50 and his chance o winner the presidentcy is less than that. Those states mentioned that could go Dem are going to disappoint a lot of the dems who keep mentioning states like Texas. That would be like the GOP thinking, magically CA looks like it will go Trump. NO CAr and AZ are not solid Red as in the past but I doubt many,who have much knowledge really think they are actually turning blue.. That is like saying, because the pork chop is not completely cold and has been cooking for 3 minutes it is turning cooked. Now let also remember the polls at this time mean almost nothing. If fact polls are never a solid indication of what will happen. They all depend on when the poll is taken, how many participated and who is doing the poll
Biden has no no chance in Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota.
Trump will get over 300 EV's again
I do not see any world in which a Dem underperforms HRC 2016 or their manager runs a poorer outfit than that 2016 campaign. Dems just swept all 4 of those states in 2018 and in 2016 the only R wins were Trump by 20k and Johnson by 100k in Wisconsin. In Nevada no R seems to get above 45% and no Dem under 47% in the last two elections. Elections in three of those states (Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada) can swing D entirely on the largest metros- and the fourth (Wi) will swing if the Dems maintain any suburban support. Right now Trump is doing horribly with the AA voters who undervoted in 2016 and the white suburban women who helped him eek out the three Rustbelt states. If metro minorites in Dane Co, Wi and Wayne Co, Mi turn out and Trumps slump in the Madison/Twin Cities/Detroit suburbs, I do not see there being a big enough trough of rural voters to save him.
If Biden is the nominee, Pennsylvania is gone. To be honest the stealth candidate in the pack is Klobuchar- she would run away with Minnesota and Wisconsin- keep Iowa close at a minimum and only need to focus on Michigan and Pa. She can go after NC and Ga or Arizona depending on her VP pick. I think Warner would the best pick for contesting NC and Ga and Hickenlooper would have been a good pick for contesting Az and closing some of the gap in Texas. If Biden is the nominee I think Klobuchar should get serious consideration for those same reasons- she brings regional balance in two must win states.
The economy is incredible. Any Dem can camp out in the rust belt and still not win it
Dont be too sure of that. Take a little drive out of town and ask the next farmer you see how he thinks the economy is doing.
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