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Old 10-03-2019, 12:16 PM
 
2,969 posts, read 1,950,757 times
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See rcp, Biden is leading trump in every poll that Obama won in 2012 plus Texas, Arizona and North Carolina all in Biden’s favor!

Last edited by Daywalk; 10-03-2019 at 12:40 PM..
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Old 10-03-2019, 12:28 PM
 
10,148 posts, read 11,108,686 times
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Biden is toast...
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Old 10-03-2019, 12:46 PM
 
Location: Boulder, CO
2,066 posts, read 891,818 times
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Polls that decide ahead of time how many points they want the (D) to win by, then over-sample (D)'s by that percentage.


I do think Biden would win, but in a squeaker, Pennsylvania being the decider.
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Old 10-03-2019, 03:08 PM
 
459 posts, read 693,310 times
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People really believe Biden can win? The dude is barely coherent, he makes Trump seem eloquent
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Old 10-03-2019, 05:23 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
29,175 posts, read 22,161,193 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bulok View Post
People really believe Biden can win? The dude is barely coherent, he makes Trump seem eloquent
Joe has always been Joe. If his incoherency was a problem for him, he would never have been re-elected so many times.

It's better to try to think of a more probable reason that could hurt him than incoherence.
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Old 10-03-2019, 05:57 PM
 
4,985 posts, read 3,917,143 times
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Biden turns off the younger AND that sub-set of more likely to vote crowd.
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Old 10-03-2019, 06:06 PM
DKM
 
Location: California
6,767 posts, read 3,788,700 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bulok View Post
People really believe Biden can win? The dude is barely coherent, he makes Trump seem eloquent
He's never lost an election in his entire career.
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Old 10-03-2019, 06:48 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
29,175 posts, read 22,161,193 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orpheus25 View Post
We’re also going from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Clinton now seems to have reasserted herself after some tightening before the first debate. That’s particularly true in the Keystone State, where her lead in polling averages right now is bigger than the 5.5 point margin of victory Obama enjoyed there in 2012. These states ended up being bridges too far for even George W. Bush, and Donald Trump is more Billy than George W.
Anything's possible. But 2020 won't be 2016. There's far to much in play to ever be a repeat.
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Old 10-03-2019, 06:50 PM
DKM
 
Location: California
6,767 posts, read 3,788,700 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orpheus25 View Post
We’re also going from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Clinton now seems to have reasserted herself after some tightening before the first debate. That’s particularly true in the Keystone State, where her lead in polling averages right now is bigger than the 5.5 point margin of victory Obama enjoyed there in 2012. These states ended up being bridges too far for even George W. Bush, and Donald Trump is more Billy than George W.
I think you misjudge turnout as key. Hills couldn't get enough people excited for her. Trump is firing up his opponents. If it was this November he's gone. But its a long time until the election...
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Old 10-03-2019, 07:25 PM
 
6,852 posts, read 4,331,289 times
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Went to a Biden rally in Nevada and lots of young people were in attendance. He also did a good job. I know his performance can be better some days than others. I know farmers in Wisconsin plenty mad about trump despite voting for him. It would be a mistake to think he will automatically get their vote again.
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