How can an expected Hillary win in PA have any meaning? (health care, Iraq)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
It has been agreed for quite some time that Hillary will take PA. It is the type of demographic that supports her. Older, white, uneduated, blue-collar. So how does the outcome of this state's primary, an expected win, somehow mean that Hillary has the "momentum"?
Anybody see the lunacy in that?
No, a big win (at least 10%) is very meaningful. Coupled with the Ohio primary outcome, it causes the Super Delegates to have a meaningful discussion of Obama's chances of winning in November if Ohio and Pa go to McCain.
John King on CNN went through the numbers today and if Hillary wins by 15% in Pennsylvania, she will probably gain around 200,000 in the popular vote and net maybe 9 delegates. He also did some hypotheticals and gave Hillary her wins in Indiana(this one is no guarantee but gave it to her argument sake), Kentucky, Puerto Rico and West Virginia. He gave Obama NC, Montana, South Dakota and Oregon and guess what? She will not be able to catch up and there will still be a decent distance between them in popular votes and delegate count. If she is winning some and he is winning some, there is no ligament argument to the super delegates that she has any kind of momentum.
Well, Hillary supporters seem not to understand the Math....it was quite evident that she would never be able to catch up after the potomac primaries. The likelyhood that Obama is gonna slip up again is very slim
No, a big win (at least 10%) is very meaningful. Coupled with the Ohio primary outcome, it causes the Super Delegates to have a meaningful discussion of Obama's chances of winning in November if Ohio and Pa go to McCain.
You have forgotten to explain a very important argument under this scenario. What is gonna happen to all those democratic voters that would have previously voted for Hillary?
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,259 posts, read 24,750,914 times
Reputation: 3587
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexus
It has been agreed for quite some time that Hillary will take PA. It is the type of demographic that supports her. Older, white, uneduated, blue-collar. So how does the outcome of this state's primary, an expected win, somehow mean that Hillary has the "momentum"?
Anybody see the lunacy in that?
She has to win by 10%. Otherwise it will be seen as a loss.
You have forgotten to explain a very important argument under this scenario. What is gonna happen to all those democratic voters that would have previously voted for Hillary?
Actually, the explanation is in the outcome. A small % of Hillary Clinton supporters in Ohio and Pa will go to McCain, another small % will simply not vote at all, and this combined total could be sufficient to move those states to McCain.
As I had previously stated, a Clinton victory of 10% or greater is a huge problem for Obama, and gives Clinton a legitimate point for the Super Delegates to consider in choosing the candidate.
Actually, the explanation is in the outcome. A small % of Hillary Clinton supporters in Ohio and Pa will go to McCain, another small % will simply not vote at all, and this combined total could be sufficient to move those states to McCain.
As I had previously stated, a Clinton victory of 10% or greater is a huge problem for Obama, and gives Clinton a legitimate point for the Super Delegates to consider in choosing the candidate.
I'm sorry but what is your analysis based upon? If you are gonna make a claim at least be able to back it with some facts. BTW, do you realize that a win by 10% only nets her about 200,000 more votes. If you are really thinking she's gonna be given the nomination b/c she won by 200,000- something votes then you are also living a Hillary fantasy
Actually, the explanation is in the outcome. A small % of Hillary Clinton supporters in Ohio and Pa will go to McCain, another small % will simply not vote at all, and this combined total could be sufficient to move those states to McCain.
As I had previously stated, a Clinton victory of 10% or greater is a huge problem for Obama, and gives Clinton a legitimate point for the Super Delegates to consider in choosing the candidate.
10% means nothing if she has always been expected to win the state. I think it is even more relevant that she had a 20% lead, and Obama came into the state and cut that in half. This means that half the people who were going to vote for Hillary listened to the both of them and switched to Obama. This is significant.
For a candidate who came into this thing with every advantage, it means very little that late in the game she takes a state that she was expected to take, when the reality is that she should've been far ahead at this point.
Also, most of the big states that she has won will go Democrat anyway in the General. She has lost to Obama in many of the traditionally Republican states, so if she can't beat Obama in those states, how is she going to beat McCain?
I'm sorry but what is your analysis based upon? If you are gonna make a claim at least be able to back it with some facts. BTW, do you realize that a win by 10% only nets her about 200,000 more votes. If you are really thinking she's gonna be given the nomination b/c she won by 200,000- something votes then you are also living a Hillary fantasy
First Read has a good analysis, complete with projections based on polls, for the rest of the primary season. They show Clinton, by the end of the final primary, gaining 167,500 total in the popular vote. Considering she is now down by 717,000, if that holds true, Obama should easily have claim to both a delegate and popular vote victory.
You need to take a look at elections on a state by state basis. A Pa win of 10% or more is significant, and is a legitimate point of discussion for Super Delegates.
Since I am not a supporter of either candidate, I don't get involved in some of the muck you folks like to toss at each other. Looking at this analytically, a large Pa win, on top of the previous Ohio outcome, gives the Clinton folks a legitimate point that Obama would have more difficulty winning these two states than Clinton in November. These two going to McCain would certainly make a Republican victory more likely.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
