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A bit early for this thread, as we do not have all the House and Senate races for this year decided yet, but with two Senators who have previously stated they aren't seeking re-election I figured I might as well start this.
Once we have the final #'s I will break out the states by #'s for President, will do the same for the seats in the House, though we will not know what the 2022 districts for awhile. With reapportionment coming along with redistricting we will likely see more open seats.
Republican Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina has announced he will not seek re-election in 2022. Burr was first elected in 2004 and is in his 3rd term in the Senate. North Carolina is a swing state that slightly leans Republican This will likely be a competitive race.
Republican Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania has announced he will not seek re-election. Pat Toomey was first elected in 2010 and serving in his 2nd term. Like North Carolina Pennsylvania is a swing state, though slightly leans Democratic. This will likely be a competitive race.
Open Senate Seats
Two Senators have announced they will not seek re-election. Both are Republican
Could change, but Newsom would likely appoint someone to the seat to the 2022 Midterms. Harris's term ends in 2022 so would not be a Special Election unless one is called before then (do not know yet who would be appointed or if they would run for re-election, so do not know yet if this would technically be open or not come 2022).
Getting back to updating this. There will be four upcoming Special Elections as three Democratic members of Congress will resign to take positions in the Biden administration. Special Elections will occur in these seats as a result, though the resignations will likely be staggered to ensure several vacancies are not occurring at once. In addition one Republican Congressman elect has passed away so a Special Election will be held. One Democratic member of Congress has announced they will not seek re-election in 2022.
For the races below I have broken out the results by President for that district and state for 2012 and 2016 and where available for 2020. I will update when fuller data for district is broken out for 2020 and will update to include the data by district lines that will be in place for 2022 when that is released.
Democratic Congressman Cedric Richmond of Louisiana's 2nd district will resign from office on January 20th 2021 in order to serve as Director of Public Liaison and a Senior Advisor to Joe Biden. Richmond was first elected in 2010 and just elected to his 6th term in Congress. The 2nd district covers most of New Orleans a portion of its suburbs and runs to portions of Baton Rogue. The district is heavily Democratic. Richmond is expected to resign on January 20th and the special election is to be held on March 20th with April 22nd slated for a Runoff if no candidate received a majority of the vote.
Republican Congressman Elect Luke Letlow of Louisiana's 5th istrict died on December 29th as a result of complications from COVID-19. Letlow, was just 41 years old and was just elected to his first term in Congress, passing away a few days before he was going to take his seat. The 5th district is fairly rural covering most of eastern Louisiana and is quite Republican. Special Election is scheduled for March 20th, with a Runoff on April 22nd if no candidate received a majority of the vote
Democratic Congresswoman Deb Haaland of New Mexico's 1st Congressional District is expected to resign from Congress to become Biden's Secretary of the Interior. Haaland was first elected in 2018 and entering her 2nd term in office. The district primarily covers the Albuquerque and some areas to the southeast of Albuquerque an is fairly Democratic. No date has been set yet.
Democratic Congresswoman Marcia Fudge of Ohio's 11th district will resign from Congress to become Secretary of HUD in Biden's administration. No date has currently been set for it. Fudge was first elected in a Special Election in 2008 and was just elected to her 8th term in Congress. The district is heavily Democratic and runs from Cleveland down to Akron. No date has been set yet.
Democratic Congresswoman Eddie Bernie Johnson of Texas's 30th district announced she will retire after the term she was just elected to. Johnson previously intended to retire prior to the 2020 election but announced she would seek one final term, which she won. Johnson was first elected in 1992 and was just elected to her 15th term in Congress. The 30th district covers portions of Dallas and its southern suburbs and is heavily Democratic.
Open Senate Seats Two Senators have announced they will not seek re-election. Both are Republican
Republican Open Senate Seats
1. North Carolina- Richard Burr
Trump 49.9-48.6, Trump 49.8-46.2, Romney 50.4-48.4
2. Pennsylvania- Pat Toomey
Biden 49.9-48.7, Trump 48.2-47.5, Obama 52.0-46.6
Open House Seats One member of Congress has announced they will not seek re-election, a Democrat. These elections will be held under new Congressional lines
Democratic Open Seats in the House
1. TX-30 Eddie Bernice Johnson retiring
Old lines Clinton 79.1-18.3, Obama 79.6-19.6
There are currently four upcoming special Elections. Three in Democratic held seats, one in a Republican held one. These will be held under the current lines
Special Elections in Democratic House Seats
1. LA-02 Cedric Richmond- resigning Jan 20 2021, Special Election March 20 2021, Runoff April 22nd
Clinton 74.6-22.2, Obama 75.8-22.8
2. NM-01 Deb Haaland- no date set yet to resign
Biden 60.2-37.4, Clinton 51.6-35.1, Obama 55.3-39.6
3. OH-11 Marcia Fudge
Biden 79.8-19.2, Clinton 80.5-17.0, Obama 82.7-16.5
Special Elections in Republican House Seats
1. LA-05 Luke Letlow- Died December 29th 2020, Special Election March 20 2021, Runoff April 22nd
Trump 63.5-34.1, Romney 61.0-37.7
What will also be interesting is the re-allocation of house seats due to the census. Initial reports have IL, NY, and CA losing one seat, while TX and FL each gain multiple seats. Will the re-alignment be in effect for the '22 midterms? Since FL & TX are both Republican states they should be able to gerrymander their districts and gain a few seats.
What will also be interesting is the re-allocation of house seats due to the census. Initial reports have IL, NY, and CA losing one seat, while TX and FL each gain multiple seats. Will the re-alignment be in effect for the '22 midterms? Since FL & TX are both Republican states they should be able to gerrymander their districts and gain a few seats.
The Democrat wipeout in 2020 at all levels (except the Moderator cut: off topic Presidential election "win" for Biden) means that the Democrats are almost guaranteed to lose the House after redistricting.
Last edited by Oldhag1; 01-05-2021 at 07:00 AM..
Reason: Off topic with thread hijacking potential
What will also be interesting is the re-allocation of house seats due to the census. Initial reports have IL, NY, and CA losing one seat, while TX and FL each gain multiple seats. Will the re-alignment be in effect for the '22 midterms? Since FL & TX are both Republican states they should be able to gerrymander their districts and gain a few seats.
Texas will probably be the same split. The biggest growth is in Hispanic areas. So the new seats will probably be 50/50 Republican and Democrat.
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Originally Posted by RowingFiend
The Democrat wipeout in 2020 at all levels (except the Moderator cut: off topic Presidential election "win" for Biden) means that the Democrats are almost guaranteed to lose the House after redistricting.
I wouldnt bet on that.
GOP will lose a seat
Alabama - Conservative North Western districts are under populated and will be combined, the one Dem leaning district is VRA protected
West Virginia - All 3 districts are GOP, so yea
Minnesota - the 2 districts bordering the Dakotas are under populated as is the Iron Range, which shares a border with them.
Pennsylvania - courts will draw maps and the last maps were compact
New York - Current map is an R gerrymander, and R western districts are underpopulated.
Illinois - Dems control map making.
GOP should lose a seat Ohio - in theory, R's should lose a seat, but may not because they control the map.
Dems will lose a seat
Rhode Island - Both seats are Dems ,so yea.
Democratic Pick ups
North Carolina seats are GOP approved, but have to be compact. The New seat is expected to be in Wake County , it will be Dem leaning.
Oregon's new seat will be in the Portland metro.
Arizona's will be in Phoenix
Colorado's new seat will shift the layout the most of any of these states.
if you assume a gerrymander in Texas and Florida, you still come out with a net gain for Dems with safe seats alone.
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