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Old 05-05-2008, 07:04 AM
 
29,740 posts, read 34,767,919 times
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Put this in perspective. A year ago Clinton was the clear front runner with support and money. She was the assumed nominee. John Edwards dropped out of the race. Who a year ago would believe she would be in a dog fight with a Black Man in May. It that does not qualifier her for loser status then I don't know what does. She should be embarrassed for having blown her coronation. How can anyone call Obama the front runner when he was unranked a year ago. Yes masterful fund raising does not prove a master of the war economy. Yet would not logic suggest that while not convincing it is more reassuring then being the front runner and married to an ex president and running out of money. What has Hillary managed well when it comes to money? She blew her campaign chest on luxurious living because she assumed her inevitable ascendancy to Queendom.

Yes she is a fighter and will not quit and is no whimp. Hmmm just the characteristics I want in my President. All brawn and no brain. Oh well let me read the latest Rocky Balboa discourse on global transformation.
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Old 05-05-2008, 11:43 AM
 
237 posts, read 234,861 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jojo7 View Post
This is an excellent article for all to read which goes into great detail on Hillary's chances. It not only explains her math problem but it also goes into detail on her super delegate problems as well.


Hillary Clinton, fairy princess. - By Timothy Noah - Slate Magazine


I listen to Slate magazine podcast , same source as this article. they are usually way wrong. seems their staff is a bunch of newbies just out of school, and they usually spout crap .


afew minutes later....

so the article says this

It's numerically impossible for Hillary to get to 2,025 through the remaining primaries and caucuses. In theory, Obama could get to 2,025 that way, but to do so he'd need to capture, on average, 71 percent of the vote in every remaining contest, according to Slate's "Delegate Calculator." That obviously isn't going to happen. Hence the relentless press focus on the superdelegates. They will almost certainly choose the nominee.


that was very enlightening cough cough
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Old 05-05-2008, 11:50 AM
 
237 posts, read 234,861 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skoro View Post
Clinton has already lost in every category that's been at stake so far: number of states, popular vote, delegate count. Her only vanishingly thin chnace for pulling out the nomination lies in strong-arming enough superdelegates to tip the count in her favor. That's about as likely as me winning the Powerball this coming Wednesday. But I still might buy a ticket. Just like Hillary holds out some faint hope that fate may turn up a kind card.

Number of states is not a category. what is this? miss america pageant?

a lot of calculation keep taking up or putting down superdelegates as if it was a foreign factor. it is precisely the way it works, the way dnc set it up. if they want it different for next year, they will have to fix it this year, during 08 democ convention.
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Old 05-05-2008, 11:53 AM
 
Location: Charlotte
12,646 posts, read 13,897,232 times
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This has become so complicated...

Here ya go!

The Math

"Following Guam, there are now 404 pledged delegates up grabs, and 187 of them will be decided on Tuesday. Plus, per our count, there are 268 undeclared superdelegates. Here are the basics of what each candidate needs: Assuming he wins half of the delegates tomorrow (93), Obama needs just 38% of ALL remaining delegates to get to the magic number of 2,025. If Clinton wins 94 delegates on Tuesday, she will need 66% of all remaining delegates. In addition, assuming that delegate split tomorrow, then Clinton will need 85% of all remaining PLEDGED delegates to catch Obama for the lead in that category. Moreover, if Clinton simply wanted to cut Obama's pledged delegate lead to 100, she'd need to win 62% of all remaining delegates after tomorrow. As we've noted before, the math is certainly difficult for Clinton."

"The Delegate Counts: SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273-254; PLEDGED: Obama 1,492-1,338; OVERALL: Obama 1,746-1,611. There are 268 undeclared superdelegates.

Since the Pennsylvania primary: It's Obama +17, Clinton +11;

Since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5: It's Obama +84, Clinton +13;

Since Junior Super Tuesday, March 4: It's Obama +41, Clinton +20."
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Old 05-05-2008, 12:16 PM
 
Location: San Antonio North
4,147 posts, read 7,223,878 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walidm View Post
Impressive. I particularly like the way you characterize the question, but didn't answer it. The candidates said they wouldn't count Fla. and Michigan, and I'm sure we're all aware of the rules.

I also included the popular vote totals for those who are not aware of the rules.

The RULES are to win Delegates. Period. Win Delegates. Those are the RULES.
No it is to win 2,025 delegates. Since neither will win without supers it is a double standard for Obama supporters saying do not count Fl or MI but the supers should not over turn the voters. Well rules are rules. Either way you are disenfranchising voters.
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Old 05-05-2008, 01:35 PM
 
Location: Charlotte
12,646 posts, read 13,897,232 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ryneone View Post
No it is to win 2,025 delegates. Since neither will win without supers it is a double standard for Obama supporters saying do not count Fl or MI but the supers should not over turn the voters. Well rules are rules. Either way you are disenfranchising voters.
I acquiesce to no such standard. The Rules allow the SuperDelegates to decide based on any merit they wish, and to change as often as they like.

Where is your concern for the 48 States who followed the Rules and continue to do so?

The voters have not been disenfranchised. This is a myth to support an argument which has no standing. The argument is based upon popular vote, which in and of itself has no bearing on the Democratic Nomination. It is not a Metric used to establish the winner of the contest, hence there is no basis for the argument.

The winner of the contest will enter the General Election where all eligible citizens are allowed to cast a vote. Within the Rules.
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Old 05-05-2008, 01:38 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, VA
1,773 posts, read 2,546,764 times
Reputation: 213
[quote=TuborgP;3669929]Put this in perspective. A year ago Clinton was the clear front runner with support and money. She was the assumed nominee.

A year ago she was assumed the next president of United States.
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Old 05-05-2008, 01:40 PM
 
Location: San Antonio North
4,147 posts, read 7,223,878 times
Reputation: 1009
Quote:
Originally Posted by walidm View Post
I acquiesce to no such standard. The Rules allow the SuperDelegates to decide based on any merit they wish, and to change as often as they like.

Where is your concern for the 48 States who followed the Rules and continue to do so?

The voters have not been disenfranchised. This is a myth to support an argument which has no standing. The argument is based upon popular vote, which in and of itself has no bearing on the Democratic Nomination. It is not a Metric used to establish the winner of the contest, hence there is no basis for the argument.

The winner of the contest will enter the General Election where all eligible citizens are allowed to cast a vote. Within the Rules.

I did say Obama supporters and did not say you. You have Al Sharpton saying he is going to protest if the nomination is "stolen" from Obama. People on this board say it will be stealing.
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Old 05-05-2008, 01:46 PM
 
Location: Charlotte
12,646 posts, read 13,897,232 times
Reputation: 1679
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryneone View Post
I did say Obama supporters and did not say you. You have Al Sharpton saying he is going to protest if the nomination is "stolen" from Obama. People on this board say it will be stealing.
I find it incredible that one becomes emotionally involved in an argument, which could be made by effectively reviewing the facts. I haven't heard Mr. Sharpton's statements; however, I'm sure he is well aware of the facts, and he's known to be a master of eliciting emotion.
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Old 05-05-2008, 03:03 PM
 
Location: New Mexico
8,388 posts, read 8,323,018 times
Reputation: 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by nail in da coffin View Post
Number of states is not a category. what is this? miss america pageant?

a lot of calculation keep taking up or putting down superdelegates as if it was a foreign factor. it is precisely the way it works, the way dnc set it up. if they want it different for next year, they will have to fix it this year, during 08 democ convention.

The only ones I've seen who are trying to move the goalposts are the Clintons.
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