Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7
You are kidding, right? McGovern ran at the height of the opposition of the Viet Nam War and was anti-war. He lost by a landslide depending on basically the same demographics that Obama relies on. In a general election, that just won't cut it. Look what Clinton did to him in the states that really matter.
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First of all though the war was unpopular, Nixon still had great popularity at that stage and unpopularity with the war was not directed so much at the Republicans as at the Democrats, since Democratic Presidents had started it and Congress was under Democrat control so the war was viewed as a Democratic problem more than as a Republican problem.
This time around it's very different. Though many Democrats went along with it (not Obama though) the war was started by a Republican President and a Republican controlled Congress and is largely viewed as a Republican problem rather than a Democratic problem. This translates to bad news for Republicans.
And the fact that Clinton took the "most important" states over Obama does NOT mean that McCain will take them over Obama. For most of those states it's pretty certain that EITHER Democrat will take them over ANY Republican.
The fact is, the Republicans are in DEEP trouble and the Republican leadership knows it (just ask folks like Newt Gingrich).
Lets take a look at a few things, shall we:
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Enthusiasm for their candidate:
Democrats - Two VERY popular and strong candidates. Though Republicans like to point with glee at the disruption that's caused, the fact is, the disruption is because so many Democrats (RECORD numbers actually) are so very excited about this election. There is MORE excitement in the Democratic camp than I have EVER seen.
Republicans - A candidate that NO ONE is really all that excited about. Fiscal conservatives are ticked at the party for spending like a bunch of drunken sailors and don't particularly like McCain - considering him to be too liberal. Religious conservatives are uninspired by McCain and upset that in many ways the Republicans have been doing little but paying lip service to their agenda - and the anti-immigration crowd pretty much detests McCain because of his stand on legalizing illegal immigrants. All in all, a candidate no one in the base really cares for all that much. His only hope is to attract people in the middle - but in order to do that he may have to sacrifice much of his base - or sacrifice the middle to placate the base. Not a good position to be in.
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Fundraising:
The Democrats have EACH (especially Obama) been blowing away McCain in this regard. Together, the amounts they have raised dwarfs that raised by the Republicans. The amounts they are raising have been staggering. The importance of this is not just the money itself, but what it says about the level of enthusiasm mentioned above
McCain is truly struggling in this regard (even taking into account the amount he raised in his most recent fundraiser).
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Voter Turnout:
The Democratic turnout has been ENORMOUS - with MILLIONS of new voters
The Republican turnout has been enemic at best.
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General mood of the country:
Pretty sour. The general mood is that the Republicans (especially the President) have messed up the country BIG TIME. Not a good thing for the Republicans, but great news for the Democrats.
All in all, these things add up to a potential tsunami against the Republicans in November.
That's not just MY opinion, that's the opinion of many high-level Republican insiders.
Ken
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