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Old 11-19-2022, 10:35 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,092 posts, read 19,296,640 times
Reputation: 5251

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Perhaps a little early for this thread as we are waiting on the final House seats to be called and the Georgia runoff, but with a few announcements already made I figure why not.

Similar to past versions of this thread, I will be making regular updates anytime an announcement has been made about a member of the House or Senate deciding not to seek re-election and will be keeping a tally as well (technically possible someone could decide not to run and change their mind and run, I will update in those cases as well) I will be doing the same for any Special Elections that occurs in the House during the 118th Congress which begins in January.

Important to note, this list is not meant to be a list of what seats are potentially competitive or not, but simply if the seat is open or not. With that said, I will include a brief description of the district and have the 2020 Presidential results in the district to gauge the potential competitiveness of the district.

Democratic Congressman Chuy Garcia of Illinois's 4th district
has announced he will be running for Mayor of Chicago in 2023. Garcia was first elected in 2018 and will start his 3rd term in January 2023 The 4th district covers portions of SW Chicago and suburbs to the southwest and west of Chicago and is safe Democratic. If Garcia wins, there will be a Special Election for his Congressional seat, if he doesn't win the Mayor's race he could technically run again in his House seat, but for now is listed as not running.

Republican Congressman Alex Mooney of West Virginia's 2nd district has announced he will not seek re-election to the House and run for Senate. Monney was first elected in 2014 and will start his 5th term in January 2023. The 2nd district generally covers much of northern West Virginia and is safe Republican.


Republican Senator Mike Braun of Indiana has announced he will not seek re-election to the Senate and instead run for Governor of Indiana in 2024. Braun was first elected in 2018 and serving in his first term in the Senate. Indiana is a fairly Republican State

Open Senate Seats
Currently one member of the Senate has decided not to seek re-election and it is a Republican


Open Republican Senate Seats

1. Indiana Mike Braun- Running for Governor
Trump 56.9-40.9

*Note there will be a Special Election in Nebraska for the last two years of Republican Ben Sasse's term, who announced he will resign from the Senate at the end of the year. If whoever gets appointed runs to finish the term, I will not include since it will technically be an Incumbent, if that person does not run, I will include (the speculation is outgoing Govenor Republican Pete Ricketts will be appointed to the seat and run for re-election, though that isn't certain)

Open House Seats
Two members of Congress have announced they will not seek re-election to the House. One is a Republican, and one is a Democrat

Open Republican Seats in the House
1. WV-02 Alex Mooney- running for Senate
Trump 67.6-30.6

Open Democratic Seats in the House
*1. IL-04 Chuy Garcia- running for Mayor of Chicago
Biden 72.3-25.9

*If Garcia wins his race for Mayor a Special Election will be held for his House seat, if he loses his run for Mayor, he could still decide to run for Re-Election, but as of now is listed as not running


As of the time of this post, going into the new Congress in January 2023 the Democrats hold a Majority in the Senate, currently lead 50-49 with a Runoff Election in Georgia to determine the remaining seat. Going into the new Congress in January Republicans will hold a Majority in the House currently lead 219-212 with four seats remaining to be called.
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Old 11-20-2022, 12:08 PM
 
1,052 posts, read 444,005 times
Reputation: 1634
2024 in general is a very good year for Senate Republicans, this is what I predict could happen. Up for reelection are:

Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema (D) --> unless AZ changes their disastrous voting system radically, I'm afraid it has become a blue state by the magic of prolonged ballot counting. D hold
Indiana: Braun (R) --> incumbent not running but this is by all measures a red state. R hold
Michigan: Stabenow (D) --> Michigan, along with Pennsylvania, seems to be a lost cause going ever bluer as more republican minded residents flee the state to Florida. D hold
Montana: Tester (D) --> Tester is not the moderate he likes to claim he is. If the Republican challenger is viable, he will easily coast to victory in this red state. R gain
Nevada: Rosen (D) --> If republicans start playing the democrat's game and ballot harvest, Nevada is completely within reach. Having a Republican governor might help too. R gain
Ohio: Brown (D) --> As we've seen since 2016, Ohio is increasingly a red state. It'll be an R gain
Pennsylvania: Much like Michigan, this is a state that just voted bluer than New York in the midterms. D hold.
West Virginia: I don't see how Manchin can pull off another victory after betraying this deep red state with the Green New Deal reworded as "Inflation Reduction Act". R gain
Wisconsin: Unlike MI and PA, republicans still have a fighting shot in this state, especially since ballot harvesting and drop boxes have been outlawed. Could be the most competitive of 2024, but I think it will be a slight republican win. R gain

With 5 republican gains and no democrat gains, by a conservative measure the Senate should be at least 55R-45D. Of course things can still change in 2 years, but given how polarized politics has become, it's getting easier to predict voting patterns.
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Old 11-21-2022, 09:45 AM
 
253 posts, read 184,282 times
Reputation: 332
Quote:
Originally Posted by minnomaboidenapolis View Post
2024 in general is a very good year for Senate Republicans, this is what I predict could happen. Up for reelection are:

Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema (D) --> unless AZ changes their disastrous voting system radically, I'm afraid it has become a blue state by the magic of prolonged ballot counting. D hold
Indiana: Braun (R) --> incumbent not running but this is by all measures a red state. R hold
Michigan: Stabenow (D) --> Michigan, along with Pennsylvania, seems to be a lost cause going ever bluer as more republican minded residents flee the state to Florida. D hold
Montana: Tester (D) --> Tester is not the moderate he likes to claim he is. If the Republican challenger is viable, he will easily coast to victory in this red state. R gain
Nevada: Rosen (D) --> If republicans start playing the democrat's game and ballot harvest, Nevada is completely within reach. Having a Republican governor might help too. R gain
Ohio: Brown (D) --> As we've seen since 2016, Ohio is increasingly a red state. It'll be an R gain
Pennsylvania: Much like Michigan, this is a state that just voted bluer than New York in the midterms. D hold.
West Virginia: I don't see how Manchin can pull off another victory after betraying this deep red state with the Green New Deal reworded as "Inflation Reduction Act". R gain
Wisconsin: Unlike MI and PA, republicans still have a fighting shot in this state, especially since ballot harvesting and drop boxes have been outlawed. Could be the most competitive of 2024, but I think it will be a slight republican win. R gain

With 5 republican gains and no democrat gains, by a conservative measure the Senate should be at least 55R-45D. Of course things can still change in 2 years, but given how polarized politics has become, it's getting easier to predict voting patterns.
Good calls and proof that Republicans were never going to take the Senate this election. The math didn't work.

On that note, remember in 2016 how the libs were crowing how Hillary had more votes that Trump and therefore, should have won if not for that pesky electorial college? Same thing here, as Republicans garnered over 5 million votes more nationwide that democrats, just that this time around, the distribution of those votes was the determining factor. Food for thought.
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Old 11-21-2022, 12:49 PM
 
Location: Central Mass
4,523 posts, read 4,780,453 times
Reputation: 5233
Quote:
Originally Posted by minnomaboidenapolis View Post
2024 in general is a very good year for Senate Republicans, this is what I predict could happen. Up for reelection are:

Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema (D) --> unless AZ changes their disastrous voting system radically, I'm afraid it has become a blue state by the magic of prolonged ballot counting. D hold

Michigan: Stabenow (D) --> Michigan, along with Pennsylvania, seems to be a lost cause going ever bluer as more republican minded residents flee the state to Florida. D hold
While your logic is completely wrong, you at least are partially correct here.

Debbie isn't going to lose. She's been incumbent for 21 years and going to finish up her 4th term as Senator. Since being elected, she's never carried less than 52% of the vote, and typically doubles the spending of the challenger. Her closest race, she won by 300,000 votes. Michigan's been electing her to office my entire life - she won her first race in 1974 as a student at Michigan State. The only race she's ever lost was the 1994 governor election.
HOWEVER, she is 72 right now. If she retires or worse, it depends on who are the nominees.

Sinema has done a lot to **** off liberals. but moderates like her. That's probably enough to keep her elected, but a lot depends on turnout and who runs for president.
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Old 11-21-2022, 05:41 PM
 
Location: The Piedmont of North Carolina
5,656 posts, read 2,613,065 times
Reputation: 7163
Quote:
Originally Posted by scorpio516 View Post
Debbie isn't going to lose. She's been incumbent for 21 years and going to finish up her 4th term as Senator. Since being elected, she's never carried less than 52% of the vote, and typically doubles the spending of the challenger. Her closest race, she won by 300,000 votes. Michigan's been electing her to office my entire life - she won her first race in 1974 as a student at Michigan State. The only race she's ever lost was the 1994 governor election.
In 2018, a Democratic wave year, Senator Stabenow received fifty-two percent of the vote, while her Republican challenger received forty-six percent of the vote. It was her closest reelection, to date, despite it being a D+9 environment. I am not suggesting that Senator Stabenow will lose her next reelection, but to state that she will not lose, because she has not ever been reelected with less than fifty-two percent of the vote. is meaningless, because she could very well be reelected with fifty percent of the vote, in 2024, or outright lose. Your reasoning is not logically sound.
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Old 11-21-2022, 08:49 PM
 
Location: United State
660 posts, read 491,356 times
Reputation: 539
Debbie Stabenow has to be very pleased with the midterm election results in Michigan. I am sure she will be taking it into account as she ponders whether to run again. The Election showed that Demcorts can still win there with at least a 10% margin and in general. With 2024 being the Presidential Election year and as long she has an opponent who is slightly weaker than John James (who she beat by 6.5% which still pretty close considering) she will be fine. If Masto can pull out a win in Nevada (and Whitmer in Michigan nevertheless) I'm sure Stabenow can in Michigan.

But she could end up deciding to retire which wouldn't surprise me. That is where it really gets trickier. I have seen some suggest Slotkin could run for senate in 2024 if Debbie retires.
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Old 11-22-2022, 05:02 AM
 
Location: Arizona
12,852 posts, read 7,029,740 times
Reputation: 9840
Quote:
Originally Posted by minnomaboidenapolis View Post
2024 in general is a very good year for Senate Republicans, this is what I predict could happen. Up for reelection are:

Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema (D) --> unless AZ changes their disastrous voting system radically, I'm afraid it has become a blue state by the magic of prolonged ballot counting. D hold
Indiana: Braun (R) --> incumbent not running but this is by all measures a red state. R hold
Michigan: Stabenow (D) --> Michigan, along with Pennsylvania, seems to be a lost cause going ever bluer as more republican minded residents flee the state to Florida. D hold
Montana: Tester (D) --> Tester is not the moderate he likes to claim he is. If the Republican challenger is viable, he will easily coast to victory in this red state. R gain
Nevada: Rosen (D) --> If republicans start playing the democrat's game and ballot harvest, Nevada is completely within reach. Having a Republican governor might help too. R gain
Ohio: Brown (D) --> As we've seen since 2016, Ohio is increasingly a red state. It'll be an R gain
Pennsylvania: Much like Michigan, this is a state that just voted bluer than New York in the midterms. D hold.
West Virginia: I don't see how Manchin can pull off another victory after betraying this deep red state with the Green New Deal reworded as "Inflation Reduction Act". R gain
Wisconsin: Unlike MI and PA, republicans still have a fighting shot in this state, especially since ballot harvesting and drop boxes have been outlawed. Could be the most competitive of 2024, but I think it will be a slight republican win. R gain

With 5 republican gains and no democrat gains, by a conservative measure the Senate should be at least 55R-45D. Of course things can still change in 2 years, but given how polarized politics has become, it's getting easier to predict voting patterns.
I thought 2022 the senate was suppose to be 54-55 R what happened?

If things don't go well in 2024 you can always fall back on good old election conspiracy theories.
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Old 11-22-2022, 08:18 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,374 posts, read 16,286,193 times
Reputation: 5919
Quote:
Originally Posted by minnomaboidenapolis View Post
If republicans start playing the democrat's game and ballot harvest.
Ballot "harvesting" is a boogie man term.


collecting completed ballots from voters and turning them in is legal in one way or another in 40 states, and Republicans do indeed use it in the states where its legal. It can even be argued that Republicans are better at it than Democrats.
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Old 11-22-2022, 09:23 PM
 
1,611 posts, read 814,657 times
Reputation: 2542
Quote:
Originally Posted by minnomaboidenapolis View Post
2024 in general is a very good year for Senate Republicans, this is what I predict could happen. Up for reelection are:

Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema (D) --> unless AZ changes their disastrous voting system radically, I'm afraid it has become a blue state by the magic of prolonged ballot counting. D hold
Indiana: Braun (R) --> incumbent not running but this is by all measures a red state. R hold
Michigan: Stabenow (D) --> Michigan, along with Pennsylvania, seems to be a lost cause going ever bluer as more republican minded residents flee the state to Florida. D hold
Montana: Tester (D) --> Tester is not the moderate he likes to claim he is. If the Republican challenger is viable, he will easily coast to victory in this red state. R gain
Nevada: Rosen (D) --> If republicans start playing the democrat's game and ballot harvest, Nevada is completely within reach. Having a Republican governor might help too. R gain
Ohio: Brown (D) --> As we've seen since 2016, Ohio is increasingly a red state. It'll be an R gain
Pennsylvania: Much like Michigan, this is a state that just voted bluer than New York in the midterms. D hold.
West Virginia: I don't see how Manchin can pull off another victory after betraying this deep red state with the Green New Deal reworded as "Inflation Reduction Act". R gain
Wisconsin: Unlike MI and PA, republicans still have a fighting shot in this state, especially since ballot harvesting and drop boxes have been outlawed. Could be the most competitive of 2024, but I think it will be a slight republican win. R gain

With 5 republican gains and no democrat gains, by a conservative measure the Senate should be at least 55R-45D. Of course things can still change in 2 years, but given how polarized politics has become, it's getting easier to predict voting patterns.
I'm inclined to agree with most of your picks except for Nevada, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Joe Manchin is a lot like Susan Collins in Maine. Doesn't make any sense in the current political climate why they keep getting elected, but voters in these states connect to them on a personal level. I don't think Manchin is going anywhere unless he decides to retire or run for another office.

Do agree that at this point the math favors Republicans for regaining control of the Senate. As you stated a lot can change in 2 years. Will be interesting to see what happens.
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Old 11-23-2022, 10:47 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,092 posts, read 19,296,640 times
Reputation: 5251
I have removed the Democratic Seat in IL-04 from the open seat list. While Chuy Garcia is still running for Mayor of Chicago in 2023, his plan for his House seat is a bit more unclear if he does not win. So until there is more clarity about whether or not he will run for re-election (or if a Special Election is held if he were to win the mayor race) I am removing from the list.

Open Senate Seats
Currently one member of the Senate has decided not to seek re-election and it is a Republican


Open Republican Senate Seats

1. Indiana Mike Braun- Running for Governor
Trump 56.9-40.9

*Note there will be a Special Election in Nebraska for the last two years of Republican Ben Sasse's term, who announced he will resign from the Senate at the end of the year. If whoever gets appointed runs to finish the term, I will not include since it will technically be an Incumbent, if that person does not run, I will include (the speculation is outgoing Govenor Republican Pete Ricketts will be appointed to the seat and run for re-election, though that isn't certain)

Open House Seats
One member of Congress has announced he will not run for re-election and it is a Republican

Open Republican Seats in the House
1. WV-02 Alex Mooney- running for Senate
Trump 67.6-30.6

As of the time of this post, going into the new Congress in January 2023, Democrats will hold a Majority in the Senate with a 50-49 advantage, with a Georgia runoff deciding the last Senate seat. In the House, going into the New Congress in January 2023 the Republicans hold a 221-213 advantage with one seat remaining to be called.
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