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18Montclair reliable Dems states according to the latest polls gives Obama a solid 190 Electoral votes, another 54 votes from states where he & McCain are within less than 10% points for a total of 244 Electoral votes. Obama needs to win Ohio, Missouri & New Mexico where he leads McCain now but under 5 percentage points which if he did win would give him another 43 Electoral votes for a total of 287 Electoral votes thereby winning the Presidency. Of course these are just the latest polls and who knows what things will be like in 5 months from now but if the race were held today Obama would be President.
VA, MO, IA and NC I think are a stretch at this point. I mean, It would be awesome to win those but Im not so sure yet.
I think Virginia is more likely to vote democratic than people think. Nova has grown by leaps and bounds in the last few years, and that's Obama territory. Older veterans in the southern and western parts of the state are likely to vote for McCain, but IMO Nova will have more voters (especially if Webb is on the ticket).
Interesting. It seems those 3 states are in play in most opinions.
Im confident Obama can win MN, MI, WI, NJ, NH and PA. Its not going to be easy but I think he's in a better position in those states than McCain is.
Winning those states would give Obama 77 electoral votes on top of the 175 from the reliably democratic states. Which totals 252.
VA, MO, IA and NC I think are a stretch at this point. I mean, It would be awesome to win those but Im not so sure yet.
However, if Obama takes CO, NM and NV, that would take him to 271-and the white house.
All I know is, we need to come up with a map that doesnt hinge our hopes on OH and/or FL.
I'm in agreement with you on these and the most important thing is to not rely on Florida and Ohio. The western/sunbelt states will be where he should focus his efforts, this will be much easier if Richardson is on the ticket. I really think that MO and VA could go his way as well.
I live in New Mexico. New Mexico is a conservative state, when it comes to social issues, with the exception of greater Albuquerque and Santa Fe, where most are socially moderate to liberal. However, the big issues always revolve around economics. Almost every New Mexican I've met is on some form of public assistance or knows someone who is. I know personally two different couples that bought new homes, had kids, and have them on state Medicaid. That form of philosophy = socialism, which in turn = Democrat party. Not coincidentally, both of these women, prior to their pregnancies, (this was in a local election 2 years ago) were wearing campaign paraphenalia for the Democrat candidate.
When you see a population that desires services and public assistance over income tax relief, I'll show you a society that is disposed for voting for Democrats. If New Mexico were to vote for McCain this year, I'd be surprised.
I think Virginia is more likely to vote democratic than people think. Nova has grown by leaps and bounds in the last few years, and that's Obama territory. Older veterans in the southern and western parts of the state are likely to vote for McCain, but IMO Nova will have more voters (especially if Webb is on the ticket).
It's no coincidence that Nova is one of the very first campaign stops for Obama now that he's official. He's in Manassas today, at the Nissan Pavilion. Crowds are expected to be huge.
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