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I'll start paying attention to state polling after the convention when the candidates usually get a bump. Kerry got an unusually small one. Here's another view on polling. The analyst is using real clear politics polling from the last six weeks. I'll save it to compare after the election.
Clips: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/06/op...gewanted=print
...if the general election were held today, Barack Obama would lose to John McCain, while Mr. McCain would lose to Mrs. Clinton.
This conclusion comes not from wishful thinking but from a new method of analysis on the statistics of polls that has been accepted for publication in the journal Mathematical and Computer Modeling. The authors, J. Richard Gott III, a professor at Princeton, and Wes Colley, a researcher at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, are not political scientists. They are astrophysicists. And one of the tasks of scientists is to clarify the apparent complexity of the universe by using the language of mathematics.
Here’s what they discovered: in swing states, the median result of all the polls conducted in the weeks prior to an election is an especially effective predictor of which candidate will win that election — even in states where the polls consistently fall within the margin of error.
I'll start paying attention to state polling after the convention when the candidates usually get a bump. Kerry got an unusually small one. Here's another view on polling. The analyst is using real clear politics polling from the last six weeks. I'll save it to compare after the election.
Clips: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/06/op...gewanted=print
...if the general election were held today, Barack Obama would lose to John McCain, while Mr. McCain would lose to Mrs. Clinton.
This conclusion comes not from wishful thinking but from a new method of analysis on the statistics of polls that has been accepted for publication in the journal Mathematical and Computer Modeling. The authors, J. Richard Gott III, a professor at Princeton, and Wes Colley, a researcher at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, are not political scientists. They are astrophysicists. And one of the tasks of scientists is to clarify the apparent complexity of the universe by using the language of mathematics.
Here’s what they discovered: in swing states, the median result of all the polls conducted in the weeks prior to an election is an especially effective predictor of which candidate will win that election — even in states where the polls consistently fall within the margin of error.
According to Rasmussen, using date showing who's beating who in swing states, they have concluded, using the same methods stock traders use, that Obama has a 62% chance of winning.
Rasmussen Reportsâ„¢: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
With things this early on, it is impossible to tell for sure what will happen. However, keep in mind that the Democrats have ALREADY WON several special elections, including one in Mississippi that has not gone Republican for fifteen years. Why?...massive black turnout. If that trend continues, states like Georgia might come into play.
Maybe older people took this poll - they are still using AOL...get with the times!
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