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Old 06-26-2008, 05:49 PM
 
Location: Alvarado, TX
2,914 posts, read 4,252,546 times
Reputation: 794

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An interesting read/take. Enjoy!

Quote:
Democrat is riding high in two polls but history offers cautionary tales

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- On the face of it, these are good times for Barack Obama. But despite riding dizzyingly high in two new polls, the Democratic White House hopeful shouldn't get cocky. History offers a few cautionary tales about polls and winning the presidency.

To be sure, Obama has reason to be happy this week. On Wednesday, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll showed the Illinois senator leading his Republican rival John McCain by 12 points, 49% to 37%. Last Friday, a Newsweek poll gave Obama an even bigger lead of 15 points. In both polls, Obama scores better than McCain on issues related to voters' top campaign 2008 priority: the economy.

So it's smooth sailing for Obama from the Senate floor to the White House, right? Not so fast, say experts.

"Where a candidate is in the summer certainly is not predictive necessarily of where they will be in November," says Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll.
Why Obama shouldn't get cocky -- yet - MarketWatch
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Old 06-26-2008, 05:52 PM
 
Location: Arizona
5,396 posts, read 7,068,211 times
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Please let us know when you think it is "safe" for him to start getting cocky.

(My personal prediction: the day after the first debate or townhall meeting they have together.)
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Old 06-26-2008, 05:57 PM
 
Location: Alvarado, TX
2,914 posts, read 4,252,546 times
Reputation: 794
Quote:
Originally Posted by bily4 View Post
Please let us know when you think it is "safe" for him to start getting cocky.

(My personal prediction: the day after the first debate or townhall meeting they have together.)
Yeah, right. If you can't figure it out for yourself, who am I to tell you?
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Old 06-26-2008, 06:04 PM
 
Location: South Florida
956 posts, read 1,107,658 times
Reputation: 321
I don't think Barack knows how not to be cocky. It's in his DNA ... he can't help it.

Meantime, it's very early in the polls. I heard yesterday that the polls today stand almost identical to Kerry's lead at this time in the Bush/Kerry election. So.....

Many of these polls are strongly skewed. The LA Times poll even admitted their poll included a majority of Democrats. What sort of poll is that?

I think bily4 just may have his prediction the wrong way around. I really look forward to the debates. But I'll be particularly interested to see whether only softball questions go to Obama.
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Old 06-26-2008, 08:35 PM
NCN
 
Location: NC/SC Border Patrol
21,135 posts, read 21,878,713 times
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I hope Obama stays ahead in the polls and stays cocky. Like the girl said, he doesn't know how to be any other way. I also hope the election finds the polls to be wrong. The election is the one that counts. We often answer the opposite of how we will vote when we are called by these people. It is none of their business how we plan to vote in November. If they are wrong enough times, maybe they will get mud all over their faces and stop invading the voter's privacy.
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Old 06-27-2008, 09:51 AM
 
7,139 posts, read 13,180,231 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McMolly View Post
I don't think Barack knows how not to be cocky. It's in his DNA ... he can't help it.

Meantime, it's very early in the polls. I heard yesterday that the polls today stand almost identical to Kerry's lead at this time in the Bush/Kerry election. So.....

Many of these polls are strongly skewed. The LA Times poll even admitted their poll included a majority of Democrats. What sort of poll is that?

I think bily4 just may have his prediction the wrong way around. I really look forward to the debates. But I'll be particularly interested to see whether only softball questions go to Obama.
Good perception. Obama and narcissism seem to be synonymous.

Last edited by lilypad; 06-27-2008 at 10:38 AM..
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Old 06-27-2008, 09:53 AM
 
Location: Wilmington, NC
8,575 posts, read 6,352,349 times
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obama has been being cocky for about 46 years now..
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Old 06-27-2008, 12:17 PM
 
Location: Cary, NC
1,113 posts, read 1,629,983 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmarquise View Post
obama has been being cocky for about 46 years now..
And this is inherently a problem? Seems to me that people who are already biased against Obama would blur the line between cockiness and assertiveneses.
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Old 06-27-2008, 05:24 PM
 
Location: South Florida
956 posts, read 1,107,658 times
Reputation: 321
Well, now, because I'm feeling playful and just because I can, let's take a look at the definitions of these two words.

Assertive means "self-assured, aggressive, emphatic"

Cocky is defined as "overly self-assertive or self-confident".

So to be "cocky" is to be more self-assertive than one should actually be. It's self-assuredness in the extreme. This is why people who are assertive walk a very thin line ... cross over that and you're suddenly obnoxious ... not a good thing. It's the very blurring of the line that makes it unattractive.

The Obamas cross over that line. And I think as the months unfold, that will become more apparent.
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Old 06-27-2008, 05:58 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 39,584,906 times
Reputation: 7107
I notice how they only mention the 2 polls that are wildly skewed.

The way I look at it, the polls say it is basically tied. How can that be? What with an unpopular president, an unpopular war, an economy on the verge of collapse, same with the housing market, energy prices through the roof - and McCain is tied at this point? All the pundits and experts say this is a locked-up democrat year - then what is going on?

It means the electorate has some serious doubts about Obama, just as they have about liberals in the last two elections. His policies are no different than your run-of-the-mill tax and spend, weak democrat. They've put up the same candidate that the voters have rejected before - the only difference is he's black.

I'm also surprised that McCain is doing as well as he seems to be, considering THE BASE is not firmly behind him yet.
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