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Old 08-07-2008, 07:55 AM
 
Location: Washington state
7,185 posts, read 5,486,954 times
Reputation: 1847
Default Obama leads in 3 national polls

For all those who in their wishful thinking like to claim Obama is tanking, or some other such nonsense, a dose of reality...Obama leads in all three national polls released in the last 2 days.

CBS News: 45%-39%

AP/Ipsos: 47%-41%

Time: 46%-41%

If you notice Obama's leads are rather consistent, meaning they are probably a good indication of where the electorate is right now.
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Old 08-07-2008, 08:09 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,214 posts, read 24,189,014 times
Reputation: 6982
You forgot these nuggets;

Poll: Trouble Signs in Obama's Lead - TIME
Obama stalls in public polling - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/JUL08B-Elec.pdf

Quote:
Obama’s trip overseas has not done much to bolster his image as a potential Commander-in-Chief; McCain still holds a significant advantage on this characteristic. In fact, both candidates scored lower on this measure than they did last month.
Obama still has that non-issue of who would make a better CIC. Ouch!
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Old 08-07-2008, 08:23 AM
 
23,640 posts, read 19,144,478 times
Reputation: 5736
Ok readers we will let you ponder and reflect. Obama posters keep posting polls showing Obama with a lead and having one since day one. McCain supporters show how McCain is not losing as badly as he once was and proclaim that as a victory of sorts. They show improvements in McCains numbers even though he is still behind in most polls and present that as a victory. Ok now the question becomes is that the same logic being applied to the claims of victory in Iraq? We are still losing but not as badly? The numbers for us are improving and the numbers for the bad guys are not as strong but still stronger on a consistant basis then ours? Is this the same logic that had Bush standing on a carrier declaring the end to major combat? Will the American people have to wait until November to learn not only the truth about the election numbers but also about the true status of victory in Iraq. Many of us are/were willing to accept that things are much better in Iraq. However with McCain supporters constantly offering data and proclaiming a McCain victory in the polls while the overall consensus is to the contrary is interesting. The race depending on the poll is somewhere from very close to Obama up by a few. Is that the stuff of a McCain victory dance. Rasmussen today is a dead heat is that the stuff of victory for either side? What do McCain supporters mean when they say victory? What does McCain mean when he says we are winning?
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Old 08-07-2008, 08:34 AM
 
Location: Apple Valley Calif
7,377 posts, read 11,509,114 times
Reputation: 4956
Quote:
Originally Posted by TuborgP View Post
Ok readers we will let you ponder and reflect. Obama posters keep posting polls showing Obama with a lead and having one since day one. McCain supporters show how McCain is not losing as badly as he once was and proclaim that as a victory of sorts. They show improvements in McCains numbers even though he is still behind in most polls and present that as a victory. Ok now the question becomes is that the same logic being applied to the claims of victory in Iraq? We are still losing but not as badly? The numbers for us are improving and the numbers for the bad guys are not as strong but still stronger on a consistant basis then ours? Is this the same logic that had Bush standing on a carrier declaring the end to major combat? Will the American people have to wait until November to learn not only the truth about the election numbers but also about the true status of victory in Iraq. Many of us are/were willing to accept that things are much better in Iraq. However with McCain supporters constantly offering data and proclaiming a McCain victory in the polls while the overall consensus is to the contrary is interesting. The race depending on the poll is somewhere from very close to Obama up by a few. Is that the stuff of a McCain victory dance. Rasmussen today is a dead heat is that the stuff of victory for either side? What do McCain supporters mean when they say victory? What does McCain mean when he says we are winning?
blab, blab, blab.... Hurry over tot he good side, you know McCain is going to win. If you join us now, you won't have to cry in November.... We can still save you
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Old 08-07-2008, 08:55 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,214 posts, read 24,189,014 times
Reputation: 6982
Let us also not forget the party affiliation bias of the CBS poll;

1034 Respondents;

906 Registered Voters;

Total Republicans 317
Total Democrats 381
Total Independents 336

Look what happens when CBS ‘weights’ the sample;

Total Republicans 284
Total Democrats 406
Total Independents 344

So, in order for obama to have a six point lead, they have to heavily weight the poll in his favor.
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Old 08-07-2008, 08:57 AM
 
23,640 posts, read 19,144,478 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donn2390 View Post
blab, blab, blab.... Hurry over tot he good side, you know McCain is going to win. If you join us now, you won't have to cry in November.... We can still save you
Save me from what? I am sixty and retired and set for life with multiple income sources. The people who need to be saved are the ones who can't afford gasoline and who are upside down in their mortgages. I paid cash for a new house and don't need to worry about the housing market. Those who are feeling the financial heat are the ones who need to be saved not me. I make money money from Exxon Mobil etc. If those who would benefit from a Obama victory want to reject him thats ok as I am personally better off under a continuation of the status quo. However I do try to think more globally but if those who are down trodden want more of the same then I will continue to profit from their misery and not feel guilty I tried. Please don't worry about saving me. Review your financial balance sheet and vote what you think will make your family better off tomorrow if that is your priority.
This also allows me the freedom to be home with my retired spouse and if not on vacation or some other leisure activity to be able to research and post on here. Now do you need to get back to class or work?
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Old 08-07-2008, 09:02 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,214 posts, read 24,189,014 times
Reputation: 6982
Here's the Ipsos poll;

Quote:
521 Democrats/Lean Democrat; 381 Republican /Lean Republican
A 16% gap between dems and reps? And he only has a 6 point lead?

I would think it apparent what the pollster need to do to make sure obama has a lead.

The time poll had an 8% partisan gap.

http://www.srbi.com/ObamaMaintainNarrLead.html
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Old 08-07-2008, 09:14 AM
 
Location: Washington state
7,185 posts, read 5,486,954 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Here's the Ipsos poll;



A 16% gap between dems and reps? And he only has a 6 point lead?

I would think it apparent what the pollster need to do to make sure obama has a lead.

The time poll had an 8% partisan gap.

Obama Maintains Slim Lead

I've posted this before but I'll do it again...The Democrats have a significant edge in party registration. What do you suggest the pollsters do, ignore it? The polls have to be weighted to account for that edge.
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Old 08-07-2008, 09:15 AM
 
Location: Wilmington, NC
8,575 posts, read 2,158,259 times
Reputation: 835
I suggest the pollsters get a real job. they are like weathermen. how many jobs out there are you allowed to get it right 50% of the time and continue to work?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
I've posted this before but I'll do it again...The Democrats have a significant edge in party registration. What do you suggest the pollsters do, ignore it?
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Old 08-07-2008, 09:19 AM
 
Location: Home is where the heart is
15,400 posts, read 17,622,422 times
Reputation: 18798
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
The Democrats have a significant edge in party registration.
And you ain't seen nothin' yet. The major underlying message of Obama's speech (not to mention the rest of the hoopla at the convention) will be to kick off a massive voter registration campaign.
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