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Old 09-06-2008, 10:10 AM
 
1,353 posts, read 2,318,839 times
Reputation: 848

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I think Obama is weathering the storm pretty well so far, and by "storm" I mean John McCain's surprise Sarah Palin pick last week, the GOP convention, and Sarah Palin's blistering VP acceptance speech, which pretty much gave Obama a good spanking.

Yesterday's Gallup tracking polls have Obama 48, McCain 44, and today's Rasmussen tracking poll, with leaners, are Obama 49% McCain 46%.

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)

Another brand new tracking poll, Hotline Diageo, show Obama 46, McCain 40.

DIAGEO | HOTLINE POLL

Obama's current RCP average lead stands at 2.8%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama


No large bump for McCain (THANG GOD!), unlike in 2004 where Bush came out of his convention with a large 10-15 point lead over Kerry, a lead he never relenquised until election day. No mass defections of women and indepedents to Mccain after his pick of Sarah Palin.

It could all change, of course, and the next big gamechanger will be the debates. But I'm pleased to report that Obama still has the advantage at this point and he weathered the worst of the storm. And if the election were held today, it would look something like this map:

Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
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Old 09-06-2008, 11:28 AM
 
Location: Texas
835 posts, read 850,486 times
Reputation: 173
You do know that all of those polls where taken prior to speeches don't you? The polls that include Palin/McCain's speech will not come out until Monday.
Scott Rassmusen and the Zogby guy have both said that it will be the Tuesday-Weds. polls that show the true #'s as Bush and Obama both didn't get a bump until two days after the end of the convention.
I like your optimism even if it is foolish at this time.
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Old 09-06-2008, 11:34 AM
 
Location: Downtown Greensboro, NC
3,492 posts, read 5,928,514 times
Reputation: 596
a one time speech doesnt make most voters decide on who they are voting for. But it does spell bad news for the republicans because they dont have the momentum they had in the 2004 election around this time. Remember Bush narrowly loss too. These are different times and the climate favors democrats this year. There is a reason the democrats took back control of congress in 2006.
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Old 09-06-2008, 11:36 AM
 
Location: Home is where the heart is
15,400 posts, read 18,084,474 times
Reputation: 18806
Personally, I'm a little disappointed and I hope things look better for McCain next week.

Why would I say such a shocking thing?

Guys--we want the college kids to come out in droves. And the way to do that is to keep the election exciting. It's like a football game, you want the lead to go back and forth at this point in the game. Otherwise it gets boring, and people forget to vote.
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Old 09-06-2008, 11:41 AM
 
Location: Fort Myers Fl
2,294 posts, read 1,746,851 times
Reputation: 888
Quote:
Originally Posted by normie View Post
Personally, I'm a little disappointed and I hope things look better for McCain next week.

Why would I say such a shocking thing?

Guys--we want the college kids to come out in droves. And the way to do that is to keep the election exciting. It's like a football game, you want the lead to go back and forth at this point in the game. Otherwise it gets boring, and people forget to vote.
Are not most college kids liberals? I was, but when I got in the real world that liberal stuff just did not seem to work very well anymore.
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Old 09-06-2008, 12:00 PM
 
Location: Home is where the heart is
15,400 posts, read 18,084,474 times
Reputation: 18806
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebigr View Post
Are not most college kids liberals? I was, but when I got in the real world that liberal stuff just did not seem to work very well anymore.
I don't think many college kids will vote for a pro-life agenda, especially when they'd have to vote for a woman who made her teenager have a baby and get married. By November, the daughter will really be showing and will have saddled herself with a teenage marriage. That's a powerful image that's bound to make college kids think.
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Old 09-06-2008, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Texas
13,056 posts, read 6,314,531 times
Reputation: 6077
Look...

Obama backers need to check their swagger at the door. Because under almost ANY other circumstances, McCain would win handily. Obama is in this thing because G W Bush set the table for him with 8 years of incomptence, corruption, and ruinous policy.

This election is gonna be close.
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Old 09-06-2008, 12:09 PM
 
2,258 posts, read 2,567,448 times
Reputation: 464
Every election cycle we hear about how the libs have moblized the youth vote. Then in early nov none of em show up. Comparing this election Bush kerry is folly

the liberal hysterics are amusing
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Old 09-06-2008, 12:16 PM
 
Location: in a house
124 posts, read 336,506 times
Reputation: 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by xavierob82 View Post
I think Obama is weathering the storm pretty well so far, and by "storm" I mean John McCain's surprise Sarah Palin pick last week, the GOP convention, and Sarah Palin's blistering VP acceptance speech, which pretty much gave Obama a good spanking.

Yesterday's Gallup tracking polls have Obama 48, McCain 44, and today's Rasmussen tracking poll, with leaners, are Obama 49% McCain 46%.

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)

Another brand new tracking poll, Hotline Diageo, show Obama 46, McCain 40.

DIAGEO | HOTLINE POLL

Obama's current RCP average lead stands at 2.8%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama


No large bump for McCain (THANG GOD!), unlike in 2004 where Bush came out of his convention with a large 10-15 point lead over Kerry, a lead he never relenquised until election day. No mass defections of women and indepedents to Mccain after his pick of Sarah Palin.

It could all change, of course, and the next big gamechanger will be the debates. But I'm pleased to report that Obama still has the advantage at this point and he weathered the worst of the storm. And if the election were held today, it would look something like this map:

Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
Did they take that poll in Obama main office?
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Old 09-06-2008, 12:18 PM
 
8,887 posts, read 7,420,582 times
Reputation: 7335
Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi View Post
a one time speech doesnt make most voters decide on who they are voting for. But it does spell bad news for the republicans because they dont have the momentum they had in the 2004 election around this time. Remember Bush narrowly loss too. These are different times and the climate favors democrats this year. There is a reason the democrats took back control of congress in 2006.
Keep talking. Maybe eventually you'll convince yourself.
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